High-Value WNBA Prop Bets: August 2nd, 2025 Picks

Breanna Stewart is demonstrating elite offensive form, averaging a remarkable 24.8 points over her last five games, a significant uptick that comfortably surpasses her current point line. This surge is not an anomaly; she has eclipsed 25 points in three consecutive outings, showcasing a consistent ability to carry the offensive load. The New York Liberty star faces the Indiana Fever, a team that has struggled defensively, particularly against opposing forwards. The Fever rank 10th in the league in points allowed to this position, presenting Stewart with a highly advantageous matchup where she can exploit mismatches and find high-percentage scoring opportunities.

Stewarts role within the Libertys offensive scheme guarantees consistent usage and ample playing time. She is a focal point of their offense, commanding a high usage rate and consistently playing over 35 minutes per game. This sustained court time, coupled with the projected fast pace of the game, ensures she will have numerous possessions to accumulate points. The competitive 5.5-point spread also suggests that Stewart will need to remain aggressive offensively to keep the Liberty competitive, further bolstering her scoring potential.

While this is a back-to-back situation for the Liberty, Stewarts exceptional conditioning and proven track record of performing on minimal rest mitigate any significant concerns. Her extensive experience navigating the WNBAs condensed schedules indicates a capacity to maintain peak performance. The defensive matchup is particularly enticing, as the Fevers interior and wing defense are susceptible to dominant forwards like Stewart, allowing her to operate effectively both in the paint and from the mid-range. The current line of 21.5 points appears to not fully reflect Stewarts current scoring prowess and the exploitable matchup, offering a clear statistical edge.

Alyssa Thomas is a consistent all-around force, making the double-double prop a highly probable outcome. Her statistical benchmarks set by oddsmakers—8.5 assists, 8.5 rebounds, and 14.5 points—align closely with her established baseline performance, indicating a strong likelihood of hitting at least two of these categories. The beauty of the double-double prop is that it requires success in any two of these diverse statistical areas, which Thomas consistently impacts. Against the Phoenix Mercury, Thomass versatility will be key.

While specific defensive rankings for the Mercury are not readily available, Thomass ability to score inside, battle for rebounds against opposing bigs, and distribute effectively against perimeter defenders makes her a difficult player for any team to contain. Her role as a critical offensive and defensive hub for the Chicago Sky ensures she remains central to their statistical output across multiple categories, making her a reliable candidate for double-double performances. Thomas is projected to play her standard high-minute role, which is crucial for accumulating the necessary statistics for a double-double. Her consistent primary usage within the Skys schemes guarantees she will be involved in numerous offensive plays and defensive efforts.

The projected competitive nature of the game is also a positive factor, as close contests typically lead to extended minutes for star players like Thomas, maximizing her opportunities. Furthermore, Thomas benefits from a full rest period and playing at home, avoiding any travel fatigue and capitalizing on familiar surroundings. The -185 odds imply a 64.9% probability for this prop, but her historical consistency and the nature of her game suggest a true probability closer to 70%, yielding a substantial positive expected value. This prop also exhibits the highest implied probability among available Chicago Sky player props, signaling market confidence.

The lack of significant line movement suggests that sharp bettors also recognize the inherent value here.

Aja Wilson is in phenomenal scoring form, averaging an impressive 24.8 points over her last five games, consistently exceeding the 22.5-point line. She has cleared this specific points threshold in four of those five contests, showcasing a dominant offensive stretch that makes this prop highly attractive. The Las Vegas Aces star is set to face the Chicago Sky, a team that has demonstrated significant defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in their interior defense. The Sky rank among the leagues worst in defending opposing centers, allowing the highest effective field goal percentage to the position.

This defensive weakness presents a prime opportunity for Wilson, whose athletic advantage and diverse offensive repertoire are perfectly suited to exploit the Skys frontcourt. Their struggles in pick-and-roll defense, a staple of the Aces offense involving Wilson, further amplify the potential for high-percentage scoring chances. Wilsons minutes remain robust, averaging 34.5 minutes over her recent stretch, indicating no signs of reduced playing time. Her offensive usage rate stands at an elite 31.2%, confirming her status as the primary scoring option and ensuring she is heavily involved in offensive sets.

The game is projected for an elevated pace, which will translate into more possessions and scoring opportunities for Wilson. A competitive game script is also anticipated, meaning Wilson will likely play her full complement of minutes to secure a victory. Furthermore, the Aces are well-rested, having two full days off, minimizing the impact of the WNBAs schedule. Playing at home in Michelob Ultra Arena often provides Wilson with a slight boost in efficiency due to familiar surroundings and crowd energy.

The officiating crews tendency to call more fouls in the paint could also lead to valuable free throw attempts for Wilson. The line movement from 21.5 to 22.5, driven by professional money, suggests the market is adjusting, but the current line still offers significant value given Wilsons form and the matchup.