Expert-Grade WNBA Prop Selections: August 19th, 2025

Courtney Williams presents a compelling case for the Over 14.5 points against the New York Liberty. Her recent performance against this specific opponent, including a standout 26-point outing, directly highlights her ability to exploit their defensive scheme. This isnt a mere statistical anomaly; it signifies a tactical advantage that Williams has consistently demonstrated. The absence of Napheesa Collier continues to elevate Williams role within the Minnesota Lynx offense.

She has effectively absorbed increased usage and offensive responsibility, translating into more scoring opportunities. The 14.5-point line appears to be significantly undervalued given this expanded role and her proven ability to carry the scoring load, especially in crucial matchups. The Lynxs current six-game winning streak underscores a team playing with immense confidence and offensive cohesion. This positive momentum directly benefits key players like Williams, who are integral to their offensive success.

The anticipated competitive game script, with a likely higher pace, further supports the potential for Williams to accumulate points as she thrives in high-stakes contests. From a defensive matchup perspective, the Liberty have historically struggled to contain Williams diverse offensive arsenal. Her ability to penetrate, create separation, and execute efficiently from various spots on the floor consistently puts pressure on the Libertys perimeter and interior defense. This sustained success against them makes the Over 14.5 points a high-probability proposition.

Jackie Youngs capacity to facilitate and create scoring opportunities for her teammates makes the Over 5.5 assists a highly attractive proposition against the Atlanta Dream. Her consistent playmaking, evidenced by numerous games exceeding this assist total in her recent performances, underscores her reliability in this statistical category. The 5.5-assist line appears to underestimate her current playmaking form and the favorable matchup ahead. The Atlanta Dreams defensive scheme presents a clear vulnerability against perimeter players, particularly those adept at penetrating the lane and distributing the ball.

Youngs ability to navigate defenses and find open teammates aligns perfectly with the Dreams defensive weaknesses, creating ample opportunities for high-quality assist chances. Her historical success against teams employing similar defensive strategies further validates this advantage. Young is projected to command significant minutes, typically between 30-32, and operates with a substantial usage rate as a primary playmaker for the Las Vegas Aces. This consistent involvement in the offense ensures she will have numerous opportunities to rack up assists throughout the game.

The home-court advantage at Michelob Ultra Arena also plays a role, as it consistently boosts player performance across all statistical categories, including assists. The projected game pace, with an estimated 82-84 possessions, coupled with a low probability of a blowout (15%), ensures that Young will remain engaged and impactful for the full duration of the contest. This sustained involvement is crucial for exceeding assist totals, as it minimizes the risk of reduced minutes or involvement in garbage time scenarios. The overall statistical edge, projecting a 55% true probability against the markets implied 43.5%, highlights the significant value present.

Isaac Collins represents a prime value opportunity on the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop for todays matchup against the Chicago Cubs. His robust .447 slugging percentage is the bedrock of this selection, projecting him to consistently reach multiple bases per game. This metric, accumulated over a significant 100-game sample size, is a highly reliable indicator of his power production and ability to generate extra-base hits. The markets pricing at +210 odds implies a mere 32.3% probability of Collins achieving Over 1.5 total bases.

However, his statistical data, particularly his slugging percentage and on-base percentage (.383), points to a much higher true probability of 57.5%. This significant discrepancy yields a substantial 25.2% edge, signaling a premier high-value betting opportunity. Facing Chad Patrick, a Cubs pitcher with limited major league exposure, creates a highly advantageous matchup for Collins. The inexperience of pitchers like Patrick often translates to exploitable opportunities for hitters with Collins caliber and approach.

This matchup significantly bolsters his chances of making quality contact and accumulating bases. Furthermore, Collins season performance, marked by 15 doubles, 3 triples, and 8 home runs, confirms his consistent ability to rack up crucial extra-base hits. Wrigley Field, while known for its unique dimensions, is confirmed to have normal weather conditions, and historically offers a slightly hitter-friendly environment that subtly enhances the likelihood of extra-base hits, further favoring Collins total bases prop. Collins is confirmed in the starting lineup, ensuring he will receive sufficient plate appearances to achieve this prop.