Expert WNBA Prop Bet Analysis for August 23rd, 2025

Jonquel Jones is positioned for a dominant statistical outing, particularly with Breanna Stewart sidelined. This absence elevates Jones to the primary offensive and rebounding focal point for the New York Liberty, a role she is more than capable of filling. Her recent performance, including a 25-point outburst against Chicago, demonstrates she is in excellent scoring form. This scoring proficiency, combined with the guaranteed increase in her rebounding opportunities due to expanded minutes and usage, makes a double-double a highly probable outcome.

The matchup against the Atlanta Dream, while competitive, presents a scenario where Joness individual talent and expanded role will be critical. The Libertys series lead over the Dream suggests a tactical advantage, and a closely contested game script will ensure Jones remains on the floor for extended periods, actively involved in all aspects of the game. This sustained involvement is crucial for accumulating the necessary points and rebounds. The value proposition for this bet is substantial.

The refined true probability of 48% for a double-double, when contrasted with the markets implied probability of 36.36%, reveals a significant edge. This discrepancy indicates a market mispricing that savvy bettors can exploit. The +175 odds offer attractive potential returns for a player in such a favorable situation. While specific defensive matchups against Atlantas interior players are not definitively detailed, Joness overall talent and the sheer volume of opportunities she is expected to receive should allow her to overcome most defensive schemes.

Her importance to the Libertys success in Stewarts absence cannot be overstated, ensuring she will be a central figure in their offensive and rebounding efforts.

Chelsea Gray is a premier playmaker, and her Over 5.5 Assists prop presents an exceptional value opportunity. As the primary ball-handler for the Las Vegas Aces, Gray consistently orchestrates the offense and creates scoring chances for her teammates. Her role is stable, and with the Aces on an impressive nine-game winning streak, the teams chemistry and ball movement are at an all-time high, directly benefiting Grays assist numbers.

The matchup against the Washington Mystics is particularly favorable. The Mystics perimeter defense has shown consistent struggles in containing potent offensive flows, which opens up ample passing lanes and opportunities for Gray to find open teammates. Her history of success against similar defensive schemes further solidifies her ability to exploit Washingtons vulnerabilities.

The current line of 5.5 assists offers a significant edge, with a projected true probability of 70% significantly outpacing the markets implied probability of 59.4%. This substantial 10.6% edge, combined with the -146 odds, makes this a high-conviction play with a compelling return on investment. The Aces status as 7.5-point favorites suggests they will control the game, leading to ample offensive possessions for Gray to distribute.

Grays consistent minutes allocation, projected between 31-33, and her significant usage rate as the primary facilitator, ensures she will have the opportunities needed to exceed this assist total. The absence of any back-to-back games or travel fatigue further supports her ability to perform at peak capacity.

Jackie Young is poised for a strong scoring performance, making the Over 14.5 points a compelling wager. Her recent history against the Washington Mystics is particularly noteworthy, as she dropped an impressive 25 points in their last encounter, significantly exceeding this prop line. This historical success against the Mystics demonstrates her capability to find offensive rhythm and exploit their defensive weaknesses. The Las Vegas Aces are on a dominant nine-game winning streak, a testament to their overall team form and offensive cohesion.

This positive momentum directly benefits key offensive players like Young, who are integrated into a well-oiled machine. The projected game script, which anticipates a competitive contest rather than a blowout, ensures that primary scorers will maintain their involvement and shot volume throughout the game. The statistical edge for this bet is substantial, with an estimated true probability of 65% for Young to surpass 14.5 points, offering a 9.4% advantage over the markets implied probability of 55.6% at -125 odds. This discrepancy highlights a clear mathematical edge, supported by her proven scoring ability against this specific opponent.

Youngs role as a critical offensive component for the favored Aces guarantees consistent playing time and opportunities. While specific arena and referee impacts are not detailed, Youngs proven scoring effectiveness against the Mystics is the most significant factor. Her ability to consistently contribute offensively, especially in matchups where she has historically excelled, makes this a high-value proposition. The slight line movement from -132 to -125 suggests growing market confidence, but the current odds still present a favorable entry point.