Expert-Grade MLB & WNBA Prop Selections: August 10th, 2025

Ryan Bergert presents a compelling case for exceeding 4.5 strikeouts, driven by his impressive 8.6 K/9 rate. This foundational statistic, derived from a solid 35.2 innings pitched this season, indicates a pitcher who consistently misses bats.

Bergerts average of 5.2 innings per start provides ample opportunity to accumulate the necessary strikeouts. The matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who possess a .242 team batting average, suggests a lineup that Bergert can exploit for swing-and-miss potential.

While Target Field is considered neutral for pitchers, Bergerts effectiveness is not significantly hampered by the venue. His strong 2.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP further underscore his overall command and ability to limit baserunners, which often correlates with sustained strikeout performances.

The markets implied probability of 42.7% at +134 odds significantly undervalues Bergerts true probability of 65%, creating a substantial 22.3% edge that is too attractive to ignore.

Courtney Williams is poised to exceed 6.5 assists, largely due to her established role as the Minnesota Lynxs primary ball-handler and playmaker. In a game projected for a high pace, with both the Lynx and the New York Liberty favoring an uptempo style, the sheer volume of possessions will naturally create more opportunities for assists.

Williams consistent involvement in offensive sets, particularly in high-leverage situations, ensures she will be the one distributing the ball. While specific defensive matchup data against the Libertys guards is not readily available, Williams ability to penetrate and create for others often transcends individual defensive schemes.

The projected fast pace is the most significant driver here, directly correlating with an increased assist volume for Williams. The +114 odds offer a substantial mathematical edge, as her estimated true probability of 55% significantly outperforms the implied 46.7% probability from the odds.

Jeremy Pena is an excellent candidate to go Over 1.5 hits, primarily due to his strong .320 batting average this season, which speaks to his consistent ability to find the basepaths. This prop is further bolstered by the highly favorable hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium.

The weather forecast indicates clear skies, an 88°F temperature, and light 5-6 mph winds, all of which contribute to an environment conducive to offensive production. Pena is confirmed to be in the starting lineup, ensuring he will receive his typical allotment of at-bats, likely around four.

The odds of +200 imply a 33.3% probability of success, but Penas statistical profile and the environmental factors push his true probability to an estimated 38.6%. This discrepancy results in a significant 5.3% raw edge and a compelling 15.8% Expected Value, marking this as a mathematically sound wager.