Profitable WNBA & MLB Prop Betting Lines - August 16th, 2025

Alyssa Thomas is set to be the primary engine for the Phoenix Mercurys offense, and the 8.5 assist line reflects this pivotal role. Her consistent ability to distribute the ball and create high-percentage looks for her teammates is well-documented. The Seattle Storms defensive schemes, while solid, have historically shown vulnerabilities to elite playmakers who can exploit gaps in coverage.

Thomass exceptional court vision and passing accuracy are perfectly suited to capitalize on any defensive lapses, directly boosting her assist potential. Her usage rate for the Mercury is exceptionally high, underscoring her importance as the primary ball-handler and offensive initiator. Coupled with projected full standard minutes, Thomas has the on-court time necessary to accumulate the assists required to surpass this line.

The expectation of a competitive game script further reinforces this, ensuring she remains heavily involved in the offensive flow throughout the contest. With no reported injuries or significant rest concerns, Thomas is positioned to deliver a performance that justifies the Over on her assist total. The statistical edge for this wager is substantial, with an estimated true probability of 65% against the implied 55.6% from the -125 odds, yielding a 9.4% edge.

This translates to a projected 17% expected value, marking it as a premier opportunity for profit. The confidence in this play is high, supported by a 7/10 confidence rating and a recommended Kelly Criterion allocation of 11.75% of the bankroll, indicating a strong conviction in Thomas exceeding this assist benchmark.

Corbin Carroll is poised for a significant outing at the plate, making the Over 3.5 Total Bases prop at +115 odds an exceptional value play. His .285 batting average and .456 slugging percentage provide a strong foundation for accumulating bases, and the unique offensive environment of Coors Field in Denver will further amplify his production. This matchup features a clear pitcher mismatch against Chase Dollander, who has struggled significantly with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, presenting an exploitable situation for Carroll. Carrolls placement batting second in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, behind the high-on-base percentage threat of Ketel Marte (.342 OBP), ensures he will see plenty of opportunities with runners on base and accumulate multiple plate appearances.

His advanced metrics further bolster this projection, showcasing a 16.2% Barrel Rate and a blistering 108.5 mph max exit velocity, both indicative of his elite power and potential for extra-base hits. The thin Denver air at Coors Field, renowned for its offensive inflation, provides an additional layer of advantage, directly enhancing the likelihood of Carroll driving the ball for doubles, triples, or home runs. The projected true probability for Carroll to exceed 3.5 total bases is estimated at 54.8%, giving him an 8.3% edge over the implied probability from the +115 odds. This translates to a strong value rating of 8/10.

Furthermore, the Colorado Rockies bullpen also presents opportunities, as they are part of a pitching staff with a 5.99 ERA, ranking as the second-worst in MLB, suggesting that Carrolls ability to maintain high-quality at-bats will be beneficial throughout the game, regardless of Dollanders outing. While any MLB bet carries inherent variance, Carrolls consistent performance and advanced metrics suggest he is due for positive regression. His expected batting average (.290) and expected slugging percentage (.472) both exceed his current actual numbers, indicating that his underlying performance metrics point towards continued success. The stable odds on this prop also suggest that the market has not yet fully priced in Carrolls potential in this highly favorable situation.

Jonquel Jones is a pivotal rebounder for the New York Liberty, and the 8.5 rebound line presents an exceptional value opportunity at even money (+100). Her consistent production and crucial role within the Libertys strategy, especially against a strong home team like the Minnesota Lynx, position her favorably to exceed this benchmark. The implied probability of 50% demonstrably underestimates Jones true probability of hitting the Over, establishing a compelling 10% edge in this wagers favor. The strategic necessity for the Liberty to control the boards against the formidable Minnesota Lynx will undoubtedly create abundant rebounding opportunities for Jones.

Her matchup against Minnesotas interior defense is anticipated to be competitive, yet Jones superior skill set and proven ability to dominate the glass against various defensive fronts give her a distinct advantage. She commands significant playing time and a high usage rate within both the Libertys offensive and defensive schemes, ensuring she has every opportunity to secure rebounds. Expect Jones to play her full complement of minutes in this crucial matchup, directly correlating to increased chances of hitting the Over on her rebound total. The anticipated competitive nature of the game, with a projected tight spread and aggressive play, will lead to increased possessions and contested shots, which directly benefits Jones rebounding output.

Furthermore, Jones enters this contest fully rested, with no back-to-back games influencing her performance capacity, and the travel impacts are deemed minimal, ensuring she is at peak physical condition. The statistical edge for this bet is significant, with a calculated 10% advantage based on Jones estimated 60% true probability against the implied 50% odds. This translates to a robust 80% expected value and a strong 20% Kelly Criterion recommendation, unequivocally highlighting the substantial profitability and strategic attractiveness of this bet. The stability of the line at +100 suggests that market sentiment aligns with its current valuation, offering a clear entry point for this high-confidence wager.