Expert WNBA & MLB Prop Bet Analysis for August 20th, 2025

Cody Bellinger presents a compelling case for exceeding 1.5 total bases, underpinned by his robust .500 slugging percentage and an average of 1.95 total bases per game over a significant sample size of 115 games. This performance indicates a consistent ability to generate extra-base hits or multiple singles, directly translating to opportunities for exceeding the 1.5 total bases mark. Advanced metrics further bolster this selection.

Bellingers xwOBA of .397 significantly outpaces his actual wOBA of .359, signaling that he has been somewhat unlucky and is due for positive regression in his hitting outcomes. His expected batting average of .337 compared to his current .272 is another strong indicator of underlying talent that should eventually manifest in his on-field results. Coupled with an elite 8.6% barrel rate and a 15.3% hard-hit rate, Bellinger consistently drives the ball with authority, increasing the likelihood of extra-base hits.

The matchup against Drew Rasmussen, while featuring a strong ERA, has shown a susceptibility to power hitters. Bellingers demonstrated ability to barrel the ball and hit for power makes him well-equipped to exploit any defensive lapses or hittable pitches from Rasmussen. The controlled environment of Tropicana Field, an indoor stadium, eliminates weather variables, ensuring consistent conditions that favor offensive production, allowing Bellingers natural hitting prowess to take center stage.

Given the competitive nature of the game, indicated by the tight moneyline, Bellinger is expected to receive a full complement of at-bats, maximizing his chances to accumulate total bases. The lack of a projected blowout scenario further solidifies his opportunity to play out the entire game and achieve this prop.

Aaron Judge is a prime candidate to exceed 1.5 total bases, bolstered by his impressive .500 slugging percentage and a consistent track record of power hitting, evidenced by 24 home runs in 115 games. This slugging prowess directly translates to a high probability of generating extra-base hits or multiple singles in any given contest. The matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, while playing in a slightly pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, is mitigated by the fact that it is an indoor dome.

This controlled environment eliminates external weather variables such as wind or rain, which can often impact offensive production. For a hitter of Judges caliber, a consistent and predictable environment is crucial for maximizing his hitting capabilities. Furthermore, Judges confirmed position in the heart of the New York Yankees batting order is a significant factor.

This placement ensures he will receive a substantial number of plate appearances throughout the game, increasing his opportunities to accumulate total bases. The Yankees need for offensive production in this road matchup further emphasizes the importance of Judges bat, positioning him to be a focal point of their offensive strategy. The statistical edge identified for this prop is substantial, with a calculated true probability of 55.6% against the implied 50.0% at even odds.

This 5.1% edge, coupled with a strong value rating of 8/10, indicates a mispricing by the market and a high-confidence selection based on Judges consistent performance and favorable game situation.

Kelsey Plum is poised to exceed her rebound total of 3.5, driven by the Los Angeles Sparks league-leading second-highest pace, which guarantees a high volume of possessions and thus more rebound opportunities. This fast-paced environment is a significant tailwind for any player looking to accumulate statistical categories, especially rebounds. Plums recent performance, including a 28-point outing against Dallas, highlights her increased involvement and suggests she will command significant playing time.

This high usage rate directly correlates with more time on the court and, consequently, more chances to grab defensive and offensive rebounds. The Dallas Wings are also severely hampered by the absence of key players like Arike Ogunbowale and Li Yueru, creating exploitable rebounding gaps in their lineup that Plum can capitalize on. As 8-point favorites, the Sparks are expected to dictate the games flow, likely leading to more contested shots by the Wings as they attempt to keep pace.

This scenario generates more defensive rebound opportunities for the Sparks players, including Plum. The high projected total points line of 182-183.5 further supports the notion of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair with plenty of missed shots and rebound chances. Plum benefits from five days of rest since her last game, ensuring she is in optimal physical condition.

Playing at home also eliminates any travel fatigue, allowing her to perform at her peak. The combination of a favorable pace, opponent injuries, a projected game script that favors rebound opportunities, and Plums own high involvement makes this Over 3.5 Rebounds prop a strong value play.