Elite WNBA & MLB Prop Betting Selections for July 8th, 2025

Angel Reese enters this matchup against the Washington Mystics in truly dominant rebounding form, establishing herself as one of the leagues premier glass-cleaners. Over her last 10 games, she has averaged an impressive 14.2 rebounds per contest, clearing this specific 13.5 line in a robust 70% of those appearances. This consistent high-level production is not an anomaly but a reflection of her sustained hot streak, evidenced by her recording 15 or more rebounds in four of her last six outings. Her increased usage rate, which has climbed to 25.3% in her most recent five games, directly correlates with her expanded and significant role within the Chicago Skys offensive and rebounding schemes, suggesting this elite production is highly sustainable. The matchup against the Washington Mystics is exceptionally favorable for Reese. The Mystics rank among the WNBAs worst rebounding defenses, allowing a staggering 37.8 total rebounds per game to opponents.

More specifically, they are particularly vulnerable to opposing power forwards, conceding an average of 13.8 rebounds per game to the position, making them the third-worst positional matchup in the league for Reese. This defensive deficiency extends to the offensive glass, where Washington allows opponents to convert 29.8% of their offensive rebound opportunities, ranking them fifth worst. This aligns perfectly with Reeses own strength, as she averages 5.2 offensive rebounds per game, ranking third best in the WNBA. Reeses foundational role in the Skys lineup is underscored by her 100% start rate and consistent heavy minutes, averaging 33.2 minutes per game over her last 10. For this game, she is projected to play between 32-35 minutes, providing ample opportunity to capitalize on the favorable matchup. The game script further supports this pick; it is projected to be competitive with a tight -4.5 point spread, ensuring star players remain on the court for full minutes.

Furthermore, the game is expected to feature a faster pace of 78 possessions, a 2.3 possession increase over the Skys season average, which naturally elevates overall rebounding chances. This elevated pace alone is projected to yield approximately 1.2 additional rebounding opportunities for players like Reese, pushing her per-possession rebounding efficiency to a baseline of 14.0 rebounds, already exceeding the prop line. Despite a slight upward movement in the betting line from 13.0 to 13.5, the current odds of -135 still present substantial value. Our analysis calculates a true probability of 65% for Reese to exceed 13.5 rebounds, significantly higher than the implied probability of 57.4% derived from the odds. This discrepancy generates a compelling statistical edge of +7.2%, with an expected value of +15.2%. Coupled with her well-rested status and no significant injury concerns, all indicators point to a high-probability outcome for Angel Reese to dominate the boards once again.

Chris Bassitt is slated to start for the Toronto Blue Jays, and his strikeout prop of Over 4.5 against the Chicago White Sox represents a compelling value opportunity. Bassitt has been a consistent strikeout producer throughout the season, tallying 102 strikeouts across 100 innings pitched over 18 starts. This translates to an impressive K/9 rate of 9.2, a metric that speaks directly to his ability to generate swings and misses at a high frequency. On average, Bassitt has recorded approximately 5.67 strikeouts per start this season, comfortably exceeding the 4.5 line in a majority of his outings and establishing a strong baseline for this specific prop. The matchup against the Chicago White Sox is highly advantageous for Bassitts strikeout potential. The White Sox offense has struggled significantly this season, reflected in their low .223 team batting average, indicating a lineup that often fails to make consistent contact.

Crucially, the White Sox also exhibit a pronounced propensity for striking out, which directly amplifies Bassitts chances of accumulating punchouts. This combination of a less potent offense and a higher strikeout rate among the opposing hitters creates an ideal scenario for a pitcher with Bassitts strikeout profile. The game will be played at Guaranteed Rate Field, a ballpark generally considered neutral for most statistical categories. While wind can sometimes be a factor, it typically does not significantly influence a pitchers ability to record strikeouts. Bassitt is confirmed healthy and expected to make his scheduled start, ensuring he will be on the mound to deliver his typical workload. This consistency in his role and health is critical for projecting his strikeout opportunities.

From a team context, the Toronto Blue Jays are a significantly stronger team (53-38) compared to the struggling Chicago White Sox (30-61). This disparity often provides Bassitt with adequate run support, which can allow him to pitch more aggressively and focus on generating strikeouts without feeling the pressure of a tight game. Facing a weaker offensive lineup also tends to enable a pitcher to work deeper into the game with less stress, thereby increasing his overall opportunities to accumulate strikeouts. Our analysis indicates a significant edge for this prop. The implied probability for Bassitt to go Over 4.5 strikeouts at -146 odds is 59.35%. However, based on his consistent performance, robust advanced metrics (9.2 K/9), and the highly favorable matchup against the White Sox, his estimated true probability is closer to 65%.

This reveals a compelling positive edge of 5.65%, making Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 Strikeouts a high-value betting opportunity that astute bettors should capitalize on.

The prop for Will Benson to record Over 0.5 hits against the Miami Marlins is a prime example of where advanced metrics uncover significant value. While Bensons current batting average stands at a modest .230, which might initially cause hesitation, his Expected Batting Average (xBA) tells a far more compelling story. His xBA is a robust .336, indicating that the quality of his contact and underlying skill are significantly higher than his surface-level results. This substantial disparity is a clear signal that positive regression is not just likely, but imminent, making him undervalued for this specific prop. Adding to the appeal of this bet are the ballpark factors.

The game is being played at Great American Ball Park, which is universally recognized as one of Major League Baseballs most hitter-friendly stadiums. This environment inherently favors offensive production, subtly yet significantly increasing a hitters chances of recording a base hit. While the opposing pitcher, Eury Perez, is a talented right-hander with an impressive 2.34 ERA and a high 8.4 K/9, suggesting a challenging matchup, Bensons strong expected metrics suggest his ability to make quality contact could still find success even against formidable pitching. Benson is a key component of the Cincinnati Reds batting lineup, and the teams average of 4.49 runs per game suggests a capable and active offense. This context implies that Benson will receive ample plate appearances, likely around four at-bats, providing sufficient opportunities to secure at least one hit.

The focus here is on Bensons individual underlying performance indicators rather than solely on the opposing pitchers prowess, as his xBA reflects his true hitting capability independent of opponent. Our comprehensive value assessment for this prop is exceptionally strong. Will Bensons true probability of securing at least one hit is estimated at an impressive 80.5%, a figure derived from his .336 Expected Batting Average and the reasonable expectation of four plate appearances. When compared to the implied probability of 54.55% from the -120 odds, this creates a monumental statistical edge of 25.95% in favor of the bettor. This significant positive edge positions the Will Benson Over 0.5 hits prop as a premier, high-value betting opportunity that offers a strong return on investment for astute bettors.