Advanced MLB & WNBA Prop Betting Insights for July 8th, 2025

Our analysis of Chris Bassitts upcoming start against the Chicago White Sox points to significant value on his Over 4.5 Strikeouts prop. Bassitt, confirmed as the Blue Jays probable starter, has consistently demonstrated elite strikeout capability this season, accumulating 102 strikeouts in 100 innings pitched across 18 starts. This translates to an impressive K/9 rate of 9.2, underscoring his ability to generate swings and misses. Bassitts recent form further solidifies this pick, as he averages approximately 5.67 strikeouts per start, comfortably clearing the 4.5 line.

This consistent performance, combined with his high K/9 prediction, suggests that his strikeout output is not an anomaly but a sustainable aspect of his pitching profile. The matchup against the Chicago White Sox is particularly advantageous. The White Sox are one of the leagues weakest offensive units, boasting a paltry .223 team batting average and a well-documented propensity for striking out. This low-contact, high-strikeout opponent significantly amplifies Bassitts potential to record strikeouts, creating an ideal environment for him to exceed the prop total.

While Guaranteed Rate Field is known for being wind-sensitive, this factor typically impacts offensive outcomes like home runs rather than a pitchers ability to accumulate strikeouts. The Blue Jays stronger team context (53-38 vs. 30-61) also plays a role, as adequate run support often allows Bassitt to pitch more aggressively and deeper into games, increasing his opportunities for strikeouts. Our models indicate a true probability of 65% for Bassitt to hit the over, offering a compelling 5.65% edge over the implied probability.

Marcell Ozunas Over 0.5 Hits prop against the Oakland Athletics stands out as a high-value opportunity, driven by his exceptional offensive metrics and a favorable pitching matchup, even considering the pitcher-friendly nature of Oakland Coliseum. Ozuna has been an offensive force, boasting professional stats of a .317 batting average, a superb .509 on-base percentage, and a powerful .585 slugging percentage, indicating a hitter consistently making quality contact. His recent form reflects this elite production, with statistical calculations suggesting approximately a 78.7% chance of securing at least one hit per game. This high hit rate is not merely a streak but is underpinned by robust advanced metrics, including a strong Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) and consistent hard contact quality, affirming the sustainability of his performance.

The Oakland Athletics pitching staff presents a highly exploitable matchup. Their collective struggles are evident in a poor team ERA of 5.34, suggesting vulnerabilities that Ozuna is well-equipped to capitalize on. While specific pitcher data is not available, the overall team performance indicates a less challenging environment for hitters compared to most MLB rotations. Oakland Coliseum is known as a pitcher-friendly park, typically suppressing overall offensive production by about 3%.

However, our probability calculations have already accounted for this factor, and despite the adjustment, a significant edge remains. The calculated true probability of Ozuna getting at least one hit is approximately 76%, notably higher than the 71.43% implied probability from the -250 odds, creating a compelling 4.57% positive betting edge. This significant discrepancy between implied and true probability, coupled with Ozunas consistent performance and the Athletics pitching woes, highlights this as a strong long-term investment. The positive expected value (EV) of 0.064 further underscores its profitability.

Angel Reeses Over 13.5 Rebounds prop is a high-confidence play, underpinned by her dominant recent form, an exceptionally favorable matchup, and a projected high-pace game script. Reese has been in stellar rebounding form, averaging 14.2 rebounds per game over her last 10 outings and clearing this line in an impressive 70% of those contests. She is currently on a hot streak, recording 15 or more rebounds in 4 of her last 6 games, showcasing sustained elite production. The matchup against the Washington Mystics is arguably the most compelling factor. The Mystics are one of the WNBAs worst rebounding defenses, allowing 37.8 total rebounds per game to opponents.

Crucially, they concede an average of 13.8 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, ranking them as the 3rd worst positional matchup for Reese in the league. This defensive vulnerability extends to the offensive glass, where opponents convert 29.8% of their offensive rebound opportunities against Washington, ranking them 5th worst. This aligns perfectly with Angel Reeses strengths, as she averages an impressive 5.2 offensive rebounds per game, ranking 3rd best in the WNBA. Her ability to consistently crash the offensive boards will be significantly amplified by the Mystics struggles in securing defensive rebounds. Furthermore, Reese is a confirmed starter with a 100% start rate, consistently logging heavy minutes (averaging 33.2 minutes per game over her last 10 outings) and seeing an increased usage rate, ensuring ample opportunity to hit the over.

The games projected pace also favors this prop. With a tight -4.5 point spread, a competitive game is expected, ensuring full minutes for star players. The game is projected to be played at a faster pace of 78 possessions, a 2.3 possession increase compared to the Chicago Skys season average. This elevated pace naturally increases overall rebounding opportunities, potentially yielding 1.2 additional rebounding chances for players like Reese, whose per-possession efficiency projects to a baseline of 14.0 rebounds at this pace. Our analysis indicates a true probability of 65% for Angel Reese to exceed 13.5 rebounds, significantly higher than the implied probability of 57.4% derived from the -135 odds.

This creates a substantial statistical edge of +7.2% and an impressive expected value of +15.2%, making this a highly profitable long-term play.