WNBA & MLB Prop Market Analysis & Picks - July 9th, 2025

The Connecticut Suns recent struggles, marked by a 10-game losing streak and a low 70.9 PPG average, are a critical factor in analyzing Olivia Nelson-Ododas rebound potential. This low scoring output directly implies a poor field goal percentage, leading to a higher volume of missed shots and, consequently, more rebound opportunities for both teams. Facing the dominant Seattle Storm, the Suns offensive woes are expected to persist, further increasing the pool of available rebounds.

Beyond the Suns offensive struggles, the game script against the Storm presents a unique advantage. With Seattle favored by a substantial 18.5 points, there is a significant probability of a blowout. In such a scenario, non-starters like Nelson-Ododa often see increased playing time, particularly in garbage time minutes, which can significantly boost her rebound totals.

Furthermore, the Seattle Storms likely high pace of play contributes to a higher overall volume of possessions, creating more chances for rebounds throughout the game for all players on the court. While the Storms efficiency could limit defensive rebounds if they convert at a high rate, the sheer volume of possessions anticipated, coupled with the Suns own offensive rebounding opportunities stemming from their missed shots, creates a compelling case for the over. The implied probability of 58.5% at -138 odds suggests a reasonable likelihood, and the contextual factors provide a solid foundation for this bet.

This analysis focuses on Tiffany Hayes potential to exceed 14.5 points, presenting a bet with positive odds of +104, which signals potential value for the bettor. A key positive indicator is her presumed status as a starter, which suggests she will receive consistent and sufficient minutes on the court to accumulate the necessary point total. The WNBAs standard 40-minute game length provides a consistent duration for players to achieve their statistical goals.

However, a significant challenge in thoroughly analyzing this prop is the substantial gap in critical data. Information regarding Tiffany Hayes specific rest impact and travel schedule is unavailable. In the compressed WNBA schedule, back-to-back games or extensive travel can heavily influence player performance and fatigue, making this a crucial missing piece for accurate assessment.

Furthermore, the defensive matchup rating for Hayes against the Indiana Fever is explicitly stated as Unknown, meaning we lack specific insights into how well the Fever defend players with her scoring profile or position. This absence of detailed opponent defensive statistics prevents a comprehensive assessment of the defensive pressure Hayes might face. The moderate confidence rating of 5/10 assigned to this bet further underscores the inherent uncertainty due to these analytical voids.

While the positive odds are attractive, the lack of calculated Expected Value or Kelly Criterion, essential for precise risk management and value quantification, means the true profitability and robust assessment of this bets value remain uncertain. The bet is appealing on its face, but the analytical depth required for a high-confidence play is simply not present.

Tyler Soderstrom is currently in exceptional form, boasting a .327 batting average in recent games, which is a powerful indicator of his consistent ability to put the ball in play and secure hits. This strong recent performance suggests a high likelihood of him continuing his hitting streak against the Atlanta Braves. The analytical edge for this prop is compelling: based on his .327 AVG and an assumed 4 at-bats, Soderstroms calculated true probability of securing at least one hit stands at approximately 79.9%.

This significantly outweighs the implied probability of 71.43% derived from the -250 odds, yielding a robust 8.47% positive edge, making this a high-value play. Soderstrom, a left-handed batter, is set to face Atlanta Braves right-handed pitcher Bryce Elder. This matchup provides a consistent and standard scenario for Soderstrom to leverage his hitting prowess.

As a probable starter at first base for the Oakland Athletics, he is expected to receive multiple plate appearances, enhancing his opportunities to record a hit. The game being held at Oakland Coliseum, which is generally considered a neutral ballpark for overall hits (despite being pitcher-friendly for home runs), should not impede Soderstroms performance. The Athletics will be looking to generate offense against a strong Braves team, positioning Soderstrom in prime hitting situations within their lineup.

While specific weather details are not provided, typical summer conditions in Oakland are generally favorable for baseball, with no indications of adverse weather that would significantly impact hitting performance. The confluence of Soderstroms current hot streak, a favorable analytical edge, and expected playing time makes this a highly recommended prop bet.