WNBA & MLB Props Decoded - July 23rd, 2025 Analysis

Cal Raleigh presents a compelling case for exceeding his home run prop, driven by his prodigious power and current hitting form. His season total of 39 home runs in just 82 games underscores his ability to consistently drive the ball out of the park, averaging nearly a home run every other game. Despite facing Quinn Priester, who boasts a respectable 3.33 ERA, Raleighs profile as a slugger capable of hitting for power against any pitcher remains intact. The underlying metrics suggest that his raw strength can overcome the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park.

Furthermore, Raleighs recent performance, including a home run in his preceding game, signals that his swing is dialed in. This uptick in performance, coupled with his established power, creates a scenario where the +255 odds represent significant mispricing. The calculated true probability of him hitting a home run, estimated at 37.8%, offers a substantial edge over the implied probability of 28.1% from the bookmaker. This discrepancy highlights a prime opportunity for positive expected value.

The analysis of his matchup against Priester, while acknowledging the pitchers effectiveness, focuses on Raleighs ability to elevate the ball and generate extra-base hits. His consistent launch angle and hard-hit rates, though not explicitly detailed for this prop, are known contributors to his power output. The bet is predicated on Raleighs inherent ability to connect for a long ball, even in challenging environments or against solid pitching, making this a high-conviction play based on his season-long performance and recent indicators. The primary risk lies in the inherent volatility of home run props and the potential for Priester to deliver an exceptional performance.

T-Mobile Parks reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue also introduces a slight headwind. However, Raleighs demonstrated ability to overcome these factors throughout the season, combined with the favorable odds, makes the potential reward outweigh the risks.

Colton Cowser is poised for a strong performance, particularly in accumulating total bases, as indicated by significant positive regression indicators. His expected batting average (xBA) of .336 starkly contrasts with his actual .226 average, suggesting that his underlying metrics are far more robust than his current surface numbers reflect. This disconnect points to an impending improvement in his batting average and, consequently, his total bases. Cowsers elite power metrics, including an impressive 8.1% barrel rate placing him in the 95th percentile, signal his capability to generate extra-base hits. He is on pace for a 30-home run season, a testament to his ability to drive the ball with authority.

The matchup against RHP Slade Cecconi is particularly favorable, as Cecconi exhibits a clear vulnerability to left-handed hitters, allowing a .246 batting average against and a concerning 16% home run to fly ball rate to lefties. This platoon advantage for Cowser is a critical factor. Adding to the favorable conditions are the expected weather patterns. With temperatures around 82°F, the ball carry is projected to increase by 3-5%, which can be the difference in converting fly balls into extra-base hits. Progressive Field itself is a neutral ballpark, not hindering offensive production.

Cowsers consistent 150° launch angle is also optimal for maximizing power and generating extra-base hits, indicating sustainable form. The current +130 odds from FanDuel are notably mispriced. They imply a probability of 43.5%, which is considerably lower than the estimated true probability of 55%. This 11.5% edge, combined with a strong confidence rating based on his performance data and regression potential, makes this prop a standout value play. His projected batting order of 5th also ensures ample plate appearances to accumulate the necessary total bases.

Allisha Grays points prop of 16.5 is positioned for a strong performance, driven by her consistent scoring average and an anticipated increase in offensive responsibility. Gray is averaging a robust 18.6 points per game this season, comfortably exceeding the 16.5-point line. This established scoring output provides a solid foundation for betting the Over. A critical factor in this projection is the absence of Atlanta Dreams key guard, Rhyne Howard.

With Howard sidelined due to injury, Gray is expected to absorb a larger share of the offensive load, translating to more shot attempts and scoring opportunities. This increased usage rate is a significant catalyst for her scoring potential in this particular matchup. The defensive capabilities of the Phoenix Mercury also play into Grays favor. While specific defensive rankings were not detailed, the absence of Monique Akoa Makani from their lineup is likely to weaken their perimeter defense.

This potential defensive vulnerability could create a more favorable scoring environment for Gray, allowing her to exploit mismatches or find open looks. Statistically, the implied probability for the -110 odds is approximately 52.38%. Given Grays season average and expected increased role, her projected probability of exceeding 16.5 points is estimated at 65%. This creates a significant statistical edge of 12.62%, underscoring the value in this Over bet.

The Dreams solid 13-10 season record also indicates a competitive team environment that supports consistent individual performances.