Sharp WNBA & MLB Prop Betting Moves for July 28th, 2025

Bobby Witt Jr. presents a compelling case for exceeding 1.5 hits in todays matchup against the Atlanta Braves. His consistent .285 batting average speaks to his reliability at the plate, a crucial factor when targeting multi-hit performances. The underlying data suggests that while Spencer Strider is a talented pitcher, his 3.72 ERA indicates he can be vulnerable. This vulnerability is key, as it implies Witt Jr.

might encounter more hittable pitches, increasing his chances of making solid contact. The ballpark factor at Kauffman Stadium, combined with anticipated hot weather, creates an environment that generally favors offensive output. These conditions can help the ball carry further, potentially aiding in extra-base hits which, by extension, can contribute to multi-hit games. Our advanced analytical models, which incorporate expected statistics and park factors, project a true probability for Witt Jr. to achieve over 1.5 hits that surpasses the markets implied probability at +175 odds.

This suggests a mathematical edge that smart bettors should consider. Witt Jr.s consistent performance, evidenced by his solid batting average and .456 slugging percentage, underscores his ability to consistently get on base and hit for power. The matchup against Strider, while challenging, is not insurmountable, and the specific context of the game, including the stadium and weather, leans towards a higher-scoring affair. This combination of player skill, opponent vulnerability, and favorable environmental conditions makes this prop a high-value opportunity. The inherent unpredictability of baseball is always a consideration, and Striders high-strikeout potential could limit Witt Jr.s opportunities.

However, Witt Jr.s proven ability to hit against quality pitching, coupled with the other positive indicators, tilts the scales in favor of him achieving this prop.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is poised for a strong performance with his Over 1.5 Total Bases prop against the Baltimore Orioles. His robust .459 slugging percentage over 104 games provides a solid statistical foundation, demonstrating his consistent ability to hit for extra bases. The matchup against Zach Eflin, who carries a concerning 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, presents a highly advantageous pitching scenario for Guerrero Jr. This favorable matchup is amplified by Guerrero Jr.s consistent form, batting third in the Toronto Blue Jays potent lineup.

This prime position ensures he will see plenty of pitches and have opportunities to drive in runs or hit for extra bases. His .292 batting average with consistent power further validates his current offensive trajectory, suggesting that regression is unlikely in this specific game. The neutral conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, coupled with an expected competitive game script, are also beneficial. These factors ensure that Guerrero Jr. will likely get his full complement of at-bats without the influence of a blowout, allowing him to leverage his hitting prowess.

The platoon advantage against Eflin, a right-handed pitcher, aligns perfectly with Guerrero Jr.s career splits, further enhancing his potential for extra-base hits. Our analysis indicates a true probability of 52.8% for Guerrero Jr. to exceed 1.5 total bases, which translates to a significant 4.3% edge over the implied probability of the -135 odds. This edge, combined with his elite .855 OPS and 37 extra-base hits in 104 games, underscores the value in this prop. The extensive sample size from MySportsFeeds minimizes the risk of short-term statistical variance, making this a well-supported selection.

While inherent statistical variance is always a factor in baseball, Guerrero Jr.s consistent production and the advantageous matchup significantly mitigate this risk. The 104-game sample size provides a strong historical basis for expecting him to achieve this prop.

Gabby Williams of the Seattle Storm is projected for an increased offensive role and is a strong candidate to exceed her points total of 13.5. With Breanna Stewart sidelined, the offensive responsibility will naturally shift towards Williams, elevating her usage and potential shot attempts. This increased offensive burden is expected to translate into more scoring opportunities, especially in a game projected to be fast-paced. The matchup against the Connecticut Sun, who allow 84.2 points per game (6th in the WNBA), suggests a potentially high-scoring environment that favors offensive production. Furthermore, the Sun have shown defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in defending wing players and mid-range attempts, which are key areas for Williams scoring.

Her historical performance against the Sun, averaging 13.0 points in career matchups, aligns closely with the proposed line, indicating a history of success against this specific opponent. The projected pace of the game is also a critical factor. The Storms ranking among the top teams in WNBA pace suggests a higher volume of possessions. This increased tempo is estimated to generate approximately two extra possessions compared to an average game, directly leading to more scoring opportunities for Williams. This translates to an anticipated increase of 1.2 field goal attempts, pushing her expected attempts higher and improving her chances of reaching the over.

Williams is expected to play between 28-30 minutes, an increase from her typical court time, mitigating concerns about limited opportunities due to blowouts. Her physical condition is also optimal, with no back-to-back games scheduled, ensuring peak performance. The bet offers a positive statistical edge of 1.22% with an expected value of 0.025, indicating a favorable long-term proposition for bettors. While Williams recent July scoring average of 11.3 PPG is slightly below the 13.5 line, the context of Stewarts absence and the favorable matchup strongly suggest she can elevate her game tonight. The bet has an estimated true probability of 50%, which, combined with the +105 odds, presents a fair value proposition with a moderate confidence level.