Sharp MLB & WNBA Prop Betting Moves for July 29th, 2025

Riley Greene presents a compelling case for exceeding his Over 0.5 RBIs prop. His recent form has been exceptional, marked by a .288 batting average with runners in scoring position over his last 10 games and 5 RBIs in his last 7 contests. This indicates a player who is consistently delivering in crucial situations.

Furthermore, his advanced metrics, such as an elite .380 expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) with runners on base and an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph in such scenarios, underscore his ability to generate high-quality contact when opportunities arise. Greene is strategically positioned as the cleanup hitter, benefiting from high on-base percentage teammates ahead of him, which consistently provides him with an average of 3.8 RBI opportunities per game. The market appears to underestimate his true probability, offering a significant value at +135 odds.

The matchup against Casey Mize of the Arizona Diamondbacks is particularly advantageous. Mize has struggled against left-handed hitters like Greene, allowing a .342 on-base percentage. His .284 batting average against and a 45.2% hard-contact rate in RBI situations highlight his vulnerability when runners are on base.

While Comerica Park can be pitcher-friendly, Greenes demonstrated ability to perform in RBI situations, supported by a sustainable .312 BABIP with runners in scoring position, suggests he can overcome these park factors. The Tigers status as moneyline favorites (-145) also implies a competitive game script where Greene should receive ample plate appearances, further bolstering the case for this prop.

Jackson Chourio is positioned for a strong performance in terms of scoring runs, with his prop set at Over 0.5 Runs Scored. His season-long consistency is evident in his average of 0.667 runs scored per game across 105 appearances. This solid baseline is further bolstered by his recent offensive surge, as the Milwaukee Brewers offense has been potent, scoring 8 runs and hitting 3 home runs in their last outing.

This indicates a team firing on all cylinders, creating ample opportunities for Chourio to be driven in. The matchup against Chicago Cubs right-handed pitcher Colin Rea presents a clear advantage. Rea carries a 4.06 ERA and a concerning 4.48 xFIP, suggesting he is susceptible to opposing offenses.

His 1.27 WHIP further points to his tendency to allow baserunners, directly enhancing Chourios chances of reaching base and subsequently scoring. The game environment at American Family Field is also highly conducive to scoring, with warm 89°F temperatures and a light right-to-left wind expected to carry the ball further. Chourios advanced metrics, particularly his Expected Batting Average (xBA) of .327, which significantly outpaces his actual .274 batting average, indicate positive regression is likely, as he is making better quality contact than his current batting average suggests.

Alyssa Thomas is projected to exceed her points prop of Over 14.5, driven by her integral role as a primary playmaker for the Phoenix Mercury and a favorable matchup against the Indiana Fever. Thomas consistently impacts the game across multiple statistical categories, providing a reliable baseline for her performance.

Her high usage rate as a primary ball-handler and playmaker translates directly into numerous scoring opportunities, making her points prop a logical target. The absence of Caitlin Clark for the Indiana Fever could also indirectly benefit Thomas.

With Clark off the floor, defensive attention may shift, potentially creating more open looks for Thomas, or her teammates might shoulder more offensive load, indirectly creating space for Thomas to operate. While the game is projected to be competitive, and the Fever hold a slightly better record at home, Thomass consistent output often transcends these factors.

The markets implied probability of 50.5% at -102 odds, compared to our estimated true probability of 55%, indicates a slight but valuable edge for bettors who identify this opportunity.