Sharp MLB & WNBA Prop Betting Moves for July 30th, 2025

Pete Crow-Armstrong presents a compelling case for the Over 0.5 Home Run prop, largely driven by his consistent power output throughout the season. His impressive .552 slugging percentage is a testament to his ability to drive the ball for extra bases, and with 27 home runs already this season, he has proven his capability to clear the fences. The +480 odds offer significant value, as his average of 0.267 home runs per game suggests a higher true probability than the market currently reflects. His .268 batting average also ensures he gets on base, providing opportunities to connect for long balls.

Anticipated to be a regular in the Cubs lineup, Crow-Armstrong is positioned to receive ample plate appearances against the Brewers. The matchup against Freddy Peralta, while not detailed in terms of specific historical pitching data against Crow-Armstrong, sets the stage for a power-oriented battle. Wrigley Field, known for its unique wind patterns, could also play a significant role; winds blowing out could further enhance Crow-Armstrongs home run potential. While specific platoon splits against Peralta were not provided, his placement in the batting order is crucial for maximizing his opportunities against the starter and potential bullpen arms.

The intensity of a divisional rivalry often brings out the best in key players, and Crow-Armstrong is expected to be a focal point of the Cubs offensive strategy. His season-long .552 slugging percentage is a key advanced metric underscoring his power. Coupled with his 27 home runs, this indicates a player in top form for launching long balls. The potential for favorable wind conditions at Wrigley Field further bolsters the argument for his home run potential.

Any significant line movement leading up to the game should be monitored, as it could signal shifts in market confidence. Ultimately, the combination of his proven power, favorable odds, and the potential for a game environment conducive to home runs makes this a high-value proposition.

Bo Bichette is positioned for a strong performance in his quest for Over 1.5 Hits against the Baltimore Orioles. His consistent .294 batting average over a substantial 106-game sample size, backed by MySportsFeeds data, provides a robust statistical foundation for this prop. The +145 odds translate to an implied probability of 40.8%, but our analysis indicates a 52.1% win probability, revealing a significant 5.8% edge. Bichettes confirmed status as the starting shortstop, likely batting leadoff or second, guarantees him maximum plate appearances in what is projected to be a competitive game.

The matchup against Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer is particularly favorable. Kremer has allowed a .267 Batting Average Against (BAA) to right-handed batters, a segment Bichette, who hits from the right side, can exploit. The neutral hitting environment at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, coupled with ideal weather conditions, further supports his hitting prospects. Bichettes exceptional plate discipline, reflected in a 5.3% walk rate, and a league-leading 83.3% contact rate demonstrate his efficiency and ability to consistently put the ball in play.

His recent form shows a sustained .290+ contact rate over his last 10 games, aligning with his career norms and indicating no significant slumps. The game script is expected to be close, maximizing Bichettes opportunities. His lineup position ensures consistent at-bats, with a high probability of reaching at least four plate appearances. The overall value rating of 7/10, driven by a strong edge and high-quality data, makes this a highly recommended wager.

Sabrina Ionescu is poised for a strong scoring performance, making the Over 15.5 Points prop a compelling wager. Her recent form has been exceptional, averaging 18.5 points over her last five games, consistently surpassing her season average of 16.0 points. This elevated scoring output is particularly noteworthy given the favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Aces, a team that can be vulnerable to dynamic perimeter scorers. The Aces defense ranks seventh against opposing point guards, a position Ionescu frequently exploits.

She has demonstrated this by scoring 20+ points in three of her last four matchups against them. Furthermore, potential limitations for teammate Marine Johannès could lead to an increased offensive burden and more shot attempts for Ionescu, further boosting her scoring potential. The game is anticipated to be a high-paced affair, featuring two of the leagues top-scoring offenses, which typically translates to more possessions and scoring opportunities for all players involved. Ionescus playing time remains consistent, typically exceeding 34 minutes per game, and her usage rate has seen an uptick to 27% in recent outings.

This increased involvement, especially when other primary ball-handlers face foul trouble, underscores her central role in the Libertys offense. The home-court advantage at Barclays Center also historically sees Ionescu perform slightly better. The betting line movement from 14.5 to 15.5, with professional money trending towards the over, signals market confidence in her scoring ability. Advanced models project Ionescu to score approximately 17.8 points, providing a substantial statistical edge over the 15.5-point line.

This, combined with a strong 8.2% edge and a 9.0/10 value rating, highlights the significant inherent value in this bet, especially considering the favorable game script and Ionescus current elite form.