Fresh MLB & WNBA Prop Picks & Analysis - July 30th, 2025

Andrew Benintendi presents a compelling case for exceeding 0.5 RBIs in todays matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. His season-long performance, marked by 42 RBIs in 76 games, translates to a robust 0.55 RBIs per game average, directly supporting the probability of him driving in at least one run. Crucially, his current statistics, including a .236 batting average and a .246 BABIP, are significantly below his expected batting average of .333.

This substantial disparity strongly suggests he is due for positive regression, meaning his actual performance is likely to improve and align more closely with his underlying metrics. Furthermore, Benintendis .436 slugging percentage indicates a capability to hit for extra bases, a vital component for accumulating RBIs, especially when runners are on base. His impressive 81.5% contact rate ensures he consistently puts the ball in play, maximizing his opportunities to generate runs.

Benintendi has been a consistent offensive presence for the White Sox, participating in 76 games. His recent performance, while showing a lower batting average than expected, is underpinned by a strong slugging percentage and a high contact rate. The matchup against Taijuan Walker, while not having specific head-to-head data readily available, is against a pitcher whose team is on the higher end of defensive metrics.

The game is scheduled at Guaranteed Rate Field, a park generally considered fair to hitters, which does not present a significant impediment to offensive production. Despite the White Soxs overall struggles, Benintendi remains a key offensive contributor, and his chances for RBIs are bolstered by the potential for teammates to reach base ahead of him.

Shohei Ohtani is poised for a significant offensive outing, with a strong case for hitting a home run in todays contest. His season-long performance, highlighted by a .305 batting average and 31 home runs, underscores his elite power and consistent ability to find the outfield seats. The matchup against a probable right-handed starting pitcher with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP presents a clear vulnerability to power hitters, particularly from the left side of the plate.

Ohtanis impressive .950 OPS against right-handed pitching further solidifies this advantage, demonstrating his dominance in this specific platoon split. His recent form, including three home runs in his last five games, indicates he is currently operating at peak offensive efficiency. Dodger Stadium, while generally considered a neutral park for home runs, can be conducive to left-handed power when conditions are favorable, which is expected tonight.

The stadiums dimensions and typical evening air patterns are supportive of well-struck fly balls carrying for extra bases. Ohtanis consistent elite contact skills, reflected in his high batting average, increase his chances of making solid contact and putting the ball in play effectively, rather than striking out. The pitchers relatively low K/9 rate of 7.5 also plays into Ohtanis favor, as it suggests more hittable pitches will be thrown.

The combination of Ohtanis exceptional recent form, his proven power against right-handed pitching, and a favorable matchup against a pitcher prone to giving up fly balls creates a scenario ripe for a home run. The markets pricing at -110, while not a massive discount, still offers value given Ohtanis consistent ability to deliver in these situations.

Aja Wilson is projected for a dominant performance that will see her exceed the 36.5 PRA line in tonights WNBA matchup. Her recent form is exceptional, having cleared this specific prop in four of her last five games, demonstrating a consistent ability to impact the game across all statistical categories. This streak highlights her current offensive rhythm and her crucial role within the Las Vegas Aces system.

The matchup against the Seattle Storm presents a significant advantage, as the Storms defense ranks among the leagues worst in allowing PRA to opposing forwards and centers, directly targeting Wilsons strengths. The projected high pace of the game, with an Over/Under set at 170.5 points, is a critical factor that will generate more possessions and, consequently, more opportunities for Wilson to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists. Her consistent usage and minutes are also key; Wilson is averaging an elite 34.5 minutes per game over her last five contests, ensuring she has ample court time to impact the stat sheet.

The Aces benefit from two days of rest, eliminating travel fatigue concerns and allowing them to play at their optimal level on their home court, further enhancing Wilsons potential. The markets movement on this line, shifting from an opening of 35.5 to the current 36.5, indicates strong confidence from oddsmakers and potentially sharp bettors that Wilson will surpass this total. Our predictive model further supports this, assigning a robust 60.0% probability for Wilson to exceed 36.5 PRA, translating to a substantial 10.0% edge over the implied odds of the +100 price.

This combination of recent form, a favorable matchup, high usage, and a statistically supported edge makes this a premium prop bet.