Featured MLB & WNBA Player Props - September 1st, 2025

Byron Buxton stands out as a prime candidate for a home run prop bet, buoyed by his exceptional power and a market that appears to significantly undervalue his capabilities. Throughout the season, Buxton has demonstrated a remarkable ability to generate extra-base hits, evidenced by his impressive .550 slugging percentage. His 29 home runs in just 103 games project to over 45 home runs over a full 162-game season, a testament to his consistent power stroke. The current odds of +330 imply a mere 23.3% probability of him hitting a home run, a figure that falls considerably short of his proven 28.2% home run rate, revealing a substantial edge.

The matchup against Aaron Civale of the Chicago White Sox presents a particularly exploitable scenario. Civales status, whether its a debut or a return from injury, suggests a potential lack of rhythm and command. This uncertainty is precisely the kind of situation where power hitters like Buxton can thrive, capitalizing on any lapses in control. While Target Field is considered a neutral ballpark for home runs, this neutrality ensures that Buxtons natural power is not suppressed by external factors, allowing his raw ability to dictate outcomes.

Buxtons consistent presence in the Minnesota Twins lineup as a foundational player guarantees him ample at-bats. This consistent opportunity is crucial for prop bets targeting specific outcomes like home runs. His ability to consistently connect with the ball and drive it with authority, as reflected in his high slugging percentage, makes him a constant threat to go yard. The combination of his elite power, a favorable matchup against a potentially shaky pitcher, and consistent playing time creates a compelling case for this prop.

Elly De La Cruz presents a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on consistent offensive production, particularly in the realm of total bases. His season average of 1.774 total bases per game across 137 appearances demonstrates a clear tendency to surpass the 1.5 total bases line. This consistent output is supported by a solid .272 batting average and the power to hit 19 home runs, contributing significantly to his extra-base hit capabilities.

The markets implied probability for De La Cruz to achieve Over 1.5 total bases is approximately 48.8% based on the +105 odds. However, his season-long performance suggests a true probability closer to 70-75%, creating an exceptional statistical edge of 21.2-26.2%. This significant discrepancy highlights a clear undervaluation of his ability to generate multiple bases in a single plate appearance.

The matchup against Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who carries a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, is favorable for offensive production. While Bassitts strikeout rate is respectable, De La Cruzs ability to drive the ball, as evidenced by his .453 slugging percentage, positions him well to exploit this pitching profile with multi-base hits. De La Cruz is a consistent fixture in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, occupying a prime spot that maximizes his plate appearances and opportunities to accumulate total bases throughout the game.

The overall strength of the Reds offense also provides a supportive environment for his production.

Kelsey Plum represents a significant value proposition in the WNBA prop market, specifically for her three-point shooting. Her role as a primary three-point specialist for the Las Vegas Aces ensures she receives a consistent volume of attempts, making the Over 2.5 threes line a highly attainable target. The +140 odds suggest the market may be underestimating her proficiency from beyond the arc, presenting a compelling opportunity for bettors.

The modest line of 2.5 made three-pointers is particularly attractive for a player of Plums caliber, requiring only three successful shots from deep to cash the ticket. With no reported injury concerns or load management protocols, Plum is expected to play her usual high-usage minutes, which is critical for accumulating the necessary attempts. While three-point shooting inherently carries variance, it also offers substantial profitability in prop betting when the line and odds align favorably, as they do here.

The analysis indicates a substantial statistical edge of 13.33%, with an estimated true probability of 55% against the markets implied probability of 41.67%. This translates to a positive expected value and a strong ROI potential. The game environment is projected to be competitive, which typically leads to full minutes for star players and a consistent pace, further benefiting high-volume shooters like Plum.

The arena in Seattle offers standard conditions, with no altitude or environmental factors that would negatively impact her shooting performance.