Top MLB & NFL & WNBA Prop Betting Picks: August 17th, 2025

Ryan Bergert presents a compelling strikeout prop at Over 4.5, bolstered by his impressive 8.6 K/9 season rate. This metric suggests he consistently averages between 4.8 and 5.7 strikeouts over a typical 5-6 inning start, making the 4.5 line highly attainable.

The odds of +100 imply a 50% probability, which significantly undervalues Bergerts demonstrated ability. His solid 2.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP indicate he limits baserunners effectively, allowing him to pitch deeper into games and rack up strikeouts.

The matchup against the Kansas City Royals is particularly favorable, as they exhibit an above-average tendency to strike out, providing Bergert with ample swing-and-miss opportunities. Kauffman Stadium is a neutral park, meaning Bergerts strikeout potential is solely dependent on his skill and the matchup, without external park biases influencing the outcome.

While specific umpire data is unavailable, Bergerts advanced metrics, including a strong 1.89 K/BB ratio and a low opposing batting average of .186, underscore his command and ability to induce weak contact or whiffs. He is expected to maintain his typical workload regardless of game flow, ensuring he has the innings to reach this strikeout total.

Rachaad White enters the season opener as the clear starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, positioning him as the primary rushing threat and a focal point for goal-line opportunities. The +270 odds for him to score a touchdown represent a significant value, translating to an implied probability of 27.03%, which appears to be an underestimate given his expected role.

Our projection places his true scoring probability closer to 30%, yielding a tangible 2.97% edge. The game being played in the controlled environment of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta eliminates weather concerns, typically benefiting offensive consistency and scoring potential.

As the season opener, specific team statistics and usage rates are unavailable, but Whites established role as the lead back suggests he will command a substantial workload. Historically, the Buccaneers have leaned on their starting running back, and there are no reported injury concerns for White, ensuring he should be on the field for a full complement of snaps, particularly in short-yardage and red-zone situations.

This bet relies on his volume and opportunity in a potentially competitive matchup.

Aja Wilson is in exceptional form, highlighted by her recent 30-point, 16-rebound outburst against Phoenix, signaling peak confidence and efficiency as the Las Vegas Aces push for the playoffs. The Over 23.5 points prop is highly attractive, sitting just marginally above her season average of 22.3 points, a testament to her consistent scoring prowess as the leagues leading scorer. The crucial factor amplifying this bets value is the absence of Dallas Wings starting center Teaira McCowan due to suspension.

This creates a significant void in the Wings interior defense, particularly in rim protection, which Wilson, who primarily operates in the paint, is poised to exploit. Her projected scoring efficiency is estimated to see a boost of approximately 15% due to this matchup advantage. As a three-time MVP candidate, Wilson commands a high usage rate, typically around 28-30% of offensive possessions, and this is expected to increase slightly in this favorable scenario.

The Aces six-game winning streak further underscores the teams momentum and Wilsons integral role in their success. While a blowout is possible, Wilsons consistent minutes, averaging 34-36 per game, mitigate the risk of reduced playing time even in lopsided contests. The statistical edge for this prop is calculated at 3.33%, with a true probability of 56.6% against an implied probability of 53.27%, resulting in a significant expected value.