Star Player NFL & WNBA & MLB Props: August 17th, 2025

Christian McCaffrey stands out as a premier betting opportunity for Anytime Touchdown due to his multifaceted role and consistent scoring prowess. His involvement in over 40% of offensive plays and an elite 28% red zone efficiency, ranking him among the top three running backs, makes him a primary threat in scoring situations. The absence of multiple key 49ers running backs due to questionable status is a significant factor, projecting an increase in McCaffreys already substantial workload, potentially elevating his touch share to 32%.

This increased volume, combined with a favorable matchup against the Seahawks defense, which struggled against the run last season (22nd in DVOA against RBs), further amplifies his scoring potential. McCaffrey has a history of dominating this divisional matchup, evidenced by six touchdowns in his last five games against Seattle. The 49ers offensive scheme, which balances run and pass effectively, ensures McCaffrey is utilized in various scenarios, including as a receiver out of the backfield.

His projected snap count of 82% in this competitive divisional game underscores his critical role. The offensive lines strength, with a top-10 PFF grade, is expected to create ample running lanes and provide solid protection, allowing McCaffrey to execute plays effectively. Despite the negative odds, the calculated 23.4% positive expected value, stemming from an estimated 47.5% probability of scoring against the implied 38.5%, highlights a significant market inefficiency.

The stability of his Anytime Touchdown line suggests a consistent market valuation, allowing the analytical edge to shine through.

Ezi Magbegors Over 7.5 points prop presents a compelling opportunity, driven by a favorable home matchup against the Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storms efficient offensive system. The Storms league-leading 21.5 assists per game indicate a ball-movement-centric offense that generates high-percentage looks for its players, including Magbegor. While the Storms recent 1-4 record suggests team struggles, such periods often see increased reliance on established rotation players to find offensive rhythm, potentially benefiting Magbegors scoring opportunities.

Her projected minutes in the 20-25 range and an estimated 15-18% usage rate align perfectly with her role as a key rotation player, ensuring consistent offensive involvement. The Phoenix Mercurys defense, which allows opponents to shoot 42.2% from the field, presents a moderate challenge, but Seattles offensive efficiency suggests they can overcome this. The home-court advantage at Climate Pledge Arena is a historically significant factor in WNBA matchups, often leading to improved player performance.

The even-money odds (+100) provide an attractive entry point, requiring only a modest advantage to generate profitability. The estimated 55% true probability of Magbegor exceeding 7.5 points, against the sportsbooks 50% implied probability, delivers a clear statistical edge of 5%, translating to a 10% expected return on investment. This bet is further supported by the expectation of a competitive game script, ensuring key players like Magbegor receive their full complement of minutes.

Andrew Benintendis Over 0.5 RBIs prop against the Kansas City Royals presents an exceptional value opportunity, underpinned by his consistent RBI production and the hitter-friendly environment of Kauffman Stadium. Benintendi has recorded 47 RBIs in 90 games this season, establishing a robust 52.2% per-game rate that confidently surpasses the implied probability of the +140 odds. This indicates a significant market undervaluation of his proven run-driving capability.

His consistent placement in the White Sox batting order ensures ample opportunities with runners on base, further supporting his impressive RBI efficiency. Kauffman Stadium is known for its hitter-friendly dimensions, which, combined with Benintendis .409 slugging percentage, significantly enhances his potential for extra-base hits and subsequent RBIs. The matchup against Kansas City Royals pitching, which maintains a 3.80 RA/G, presents an exploitable staff.

The 10.5% mathematical edge over the implied 41.7% probability is a strong indicator of a solid statistical advantage. While specific recent form data is unavailable, regression analysis suggests Benintendi is performing at his established season rate over a substantial 90-game sample, indicating reliability. His 81.4% contact rate demonstrates a strong ability to put the ball in play, crucial for generating scoring opportunities.