Star Player NFL, WNBA & Soccer Props: August 16th, 2025

Garrett Wilson stands out as a premier prop bet opportunity for August 16th, driven by his elevated role and a highly exploitable matchup. As the undisputed WR1 for the New York Jets, Wilson is projected to command a significant 28% target share, further bolstered by Allen Lazards absence which vacates an average of 5.3 targets per game. His demonstrated chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields, evidenced by 7 touchdowns in 12 games together last season, highlights a potent connection. Fields dual-threat capability, particularly his 12 rushing touchdowns in 2024, forces defenses to account for his mobility, thereby opening up passing lanes and creating touchdown opportunities for Wilson.

The Pittsburgh Steelers present a particularly favorable defensive matchup. Their secondary surrendered 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game in 2024, ranking them among the leagues worst, and allowed a high 68% completion rate to opposing WR1s. With key cornerbacks questionable, these vulnerabilities are likely to be exacerbated. Wilsons exceptional 4.3 yards per route run against zone coverage in 2024 is a critical advantage against Pittsburghs predominantly zone-heavy scheme.

Furthermore, Wilsons consistent presence, with a projected 95%+ offensive snap share, ensures he will be on the field for crucial third-down and red-zone situations. His 38% catch rate inside the 20-yard line in 2024 underscores his reliability in scoring situations. The game script projects a pass-heavy approach from the Jets, with an anticipated 58% pass ratio and approximately 6.5 red zone pass attempts. Wilsons expected 32% target share in these critical situations, combined with the teams fast pace of 2.78 plays per minute, suggests ample volume.

Historically, Wilson has performed well against the Steelers, recording 8 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown in their previous encounter. The +175 odds represent a significant value, implying a 36.36% probability against a projected 40% win probability, offering a notable edge.

Sabrina Ionescu presents a compelling value proposition on the Over 2.5 three-pointers prop against the Minnesota Lynx. As the New York Libertys primary perimeter threat, Ionescu is expected to shoulder a significant scoring load, especially in this challenging road matchup against the leagues top team. The Libertys underdog status and the necessity to keep pace with the formidable Lynx offense will likely necessitate a heavy reliance on outside shooting, directly benefiting Ionescus shot volume.

Her established proficiency and role as a key offensive initiator for the Liberty guarantee high usage and substantial minutes, projected between 30-35. This consistent playing time, coupled with her reputation as a prolific three-point shooter, makes the 2.5 line appear notably low. While the Minnesota Lynx boast an elite defense, this very challenge elevates the importance of perimeter scoring for the Liberty.

Ionescus ability to create her own shot, even against tight coverage, is a constant threat that can break down any defensive scheme. The +130 odds offer a significant statistical edge of 8.5%, indicating that the market may be undervaluing her consistent ability to hit three or more triples. The projected game script leans towards a competitive contest, which will likely drive a faster pace and generate more possessions, further increasing Ionescus opportunities.

Although the Liberty are playing on a back-to-back, the high stakes of this matchup are expected to mitigate any significant fatigue impact on Ionescus performance. Her overall statistical edge and the favorable odds make this a high-confidence play.

Martin Odegaard is positioned for a strong performance in the assist market against Manchester United, with the Over 0.5 Assists prop offering significant value at +360. As Arsenals captain and primary playmaker, Odegaard is intrinsically involved in the teams attacking build-up, consistently creating scoring opportunities. His recent form shows a consistent playmaking ability, averaging 0.4 assists per 90 minutes, with a rolling average that slightly exceeds his season mark, indicating he is currently in excellent form. Odegaards ability to exploit spaces between Manchester Uniteds midfield and defense will be a critical factor.

Arsenals possession-based style of play naturally favors Odegaards creative talents, allowing him to dictate the tempo and pick precise passes against Uniteds pressing system. He is expected to have 2-3 clear chance-creating opportunities throughout the match, which significantly boosts his probability of recording at least one assist. Furthermore, Odegaards high usage rate, with projected touches between 70-75 and successful passes between 50-60 per game, underscores his central role in Arsenals offensive strategy. The matchup against Manchester United presents a potential defensive vulnerability that Odegaard can exploit.

His superior vision and passing range are expected to test Uniteds defensive structure, especially in the midfield. The +360 odds appear to undervalue his consistent ability to generate assists, especially considering his current form and the tactical advantages he possesses. While a blowout is possible, Arsenals consistent attacking intent ensures Odegaard will remain involved regardless of the scoreline, maintaining his assist potential. His projected playing time of 75-80 minutes further solidifies his opportunity to impact the game and register an assist.