Star Player NFL & WNBA Props: August 22nd, 2025

Jonathan Taylor presents a compelling value proposition for an Anytime Touchdown in this early season matchup against the Miami Dolphins. His established role as the Indianapolis Colts primary ball carrier, particularly in short-yardage and goal-line situations, positions him for consistent scoring opportunities. The Colts favored status, projected at 1.5 points, suggests a positive game script that will likely lean on the run game to control the clock and secure the lead. This scenario inherently funnels opportunities to the teams lead back.

The indoor environment of Lucas Oil Stadium eliminates weather as a variable, ensuring a controlled setting for offensive execution. Taylors historical efficiency, coupled with the expectation of a robust workload, underpins his scoring potential. While specific defensive metrics against the run for the Dolphins are not yet fully established for the nascent season, the general expectation is that a primary back like Taylor will be a focal point of the offensive game plan, especially in scoring situations. His projected snap count of 60-70% and estimated 80-90% share of goal-line carries underscore his critical role in the Colts red-zone offense.

These usage patterns are foundational to his touchdown upside, irrespective of the opponents specific defensive strengths or weaknesses early in the season. The absence of significant injuries to key offensive players further solidifies the expectation of Taylor receiving his full complement of touches. Considering the -165 odds, which imply a 37.7% probability, Taylors estimated 42% scoring probability offers an 11.4% edge. This discrepancy highlights a significant value opportunity, making him a prime candidate for a touchdown.

The stability of the line suggests market consensus aligns with his scoring potential, but our analysis indicates a slightly higher probability, creating a profitable edge.

Nneka Ogwumikes Over 7.5 rebounds prop against the Dallas Wings presents a significant value opportunity, driven by her consistent rebounding prowess and integral role within the Seattle Storms offensive and defensive schemes. Ogwumike consistently operates as Seattles primary interior presence, ensuring she is always in a position to contest for rebounds. Her average of 65% true probability for exceeding this line, compared to the markets implied 55%, signifies a notable 10.0% edge. The Storms recent performance, including a competitive offensive showing in their last win, indicates the teams potential to engage in higher-scoring games, which naturally leads to more possessions and, consequently, more rebounding opportunities.

Ogwumikes usage rate is exceptionally high, as she is a focal point for both scoring and rebounding. This guarantees she will be on the floor for significant minutes, particularly in a divisional matchup that often demands maximum effort from star players. The pace of play for both the Storm and the Wings tends to facilitate a higher volume of possessions, further increasing the chances for individual players to accumulate statistical categories like rebounds. Ogwumikes ability to secure rebounds often transcends specific defensive matchups due to her physical strength, positioning, and sheer determination on the glass.

Even if the Wings focus on limiting her scoring, this could inadvertently create more opportunities for her to clean up the boards. Furthermore, the lack of significant rest or travel concerns for Ogwumike ensures she is in a position to perform at her best. The WNBAs schedule demands consistent effort, and players like Ogwumike, who are foundational to their teams success, rarely see their minutes compromised unless due to foul trouble or extreme blowouts. The current line of -122 for the Over 7.5 rebounds offers an attractive entry point, as any further movement towards a higher implied probability would diminish the existing value.

James Conner is positioned as a premier value play for an Anytime Touchdown against the New Orleans Saints, with odds of -135 suggesting a significant edge. Conner has firmly established himself as the Arizona Cardinals primary goal-line back, a role that translates directly into scoring opportunities. Last season, he averaged an impressive 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game over 15 appearances, demonstrating his consistent ability to find the end zone. The Saints defense presents a favorable matchup for Conners rushing capabilities. Last season, they allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry and ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed per game.

This suggests that Conner and the Cardinals offensive line, which returns four starters for continuity, can exploit potential weaknesses in the Saints front seven. The Cardinals are expected to lean on their run game, especially in short-yardage situations, to control the tempo and establish physicality. Conners projected workload is substantial, with estimates of 15-20 carries and 3-5 targets, commanding a significant 60-65% of the backfields touches. His expected snap count of 65-75% of offensive snaps further solidifies his central role, indicating he will be on the field regardless of the games flow. This high volume of touches, particularly within the red zone, is the cornerstone of his touchdown-scoring potential.

The -135 odds imply a 57.4% probability of scoring, but our analysis estimates Conners actual probability at a robust 63.2%. This 10.1% edge is substantial and points to a clear value proposition. The stability of the line suggests the market has priced him appropriately, but our detailed analysis of his role and matchup indicates a slightly higher likelihood of him finding the end zone. His consistent red-zone effectiveness and entrenched goal-line role within the Cardinals offense are key differentiators. With no reported injuries impacting his workload or that of his backfield mates, Conner is set to be the primary beneficiary of the Cardinals offensive strategy, especially in scoring situations.