Expert NFL & WNBA Prop Bet Analysis for September 4th, 2025

CeeDee Lamb stands out as a premier option for an anytime touchdown, bolstered by his significant red zone target share and a proven ability to convert those opportunities. Last season, Lamb commanded an impressive 28% of the Cowboys red zone targets, positioning him as the undisputed focal point near the end zone. His efficiency in this critical area was remarkable, converting 66.7% of his red zone targets into touchdowns. This high-leverage role is amplified by Dak Prescotts consistent red zone passing volume, ensuring Lamb is a primary option when the Cowboys are poised to score.

The matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles presents a clear exploitable avenue. The Eagles defense surrendered an average of 1.2 wide receiver touchdowns per game last season, ranking them among the more susceptible units in the league in this regard. Furthermore, their struggles against slot receivers, allowing 14.3 yards per reception, align perfectly with Lambs predominant alignment in the slot (68% of snaps). This creates a significant mismatch opportunity, particularly against a cornerback like Avonte Maddox who has shown coverage deficiencies.

The anticipated game script further enhances Lambs scoring prospects. Projected as underdogs, the Cowboys will likely need to lean on their passing game to keep pace. This scenario aligns with Lambs historical performance, as a significant portion of his touchdowns have come when his team is trailing. Even in potential blowout situations, his consistent target share suggests he could rack up targets in garbage time, further increasing his chances of finding the end zone.

Considering Lambs elite red zone efficiency, his pivotal role in a pass-heavy offense, and the exploitable matchup against a defense that struggles to contain slot receivers, the +145 odds on FanDuel present substantial value. His EPA/Target and Red Zone Yards Per Route Run metrics further underscore his effectiveness in scoring territory, making this a high-confidence selection.

Jalen Hurts presents a compelling opportunity to hit the Over on 1.5 passing touchdowns, driven by his consistent production against divisional opponents and his elite efficiency in the red zone. Over the past two seasons, Hurts has averaged a robust 1.8 passing touchdowns per game specifically against NFC East rivals. This trend holds steady in his more recent divisional contests, with a rolling average of 1.7 touchdowns over his last eight such games, indicating a reliable floor for his passing scores. His proficiency inside the 20-yard line is a key differentiator.

Hurts boasts a Red Zone TD Rate of 22.5%, which significantly outpaces the league average of 20.1%. This suggests he is highly effective at converting scoring opportunities into passing touchdowns when the Eagles get close to the end zone. The projected game script for this divisional clash, even with the Eagles favored, points towards a competitive contest where Philadelphia will likely maintain a high pass rate, especially in close game scenarios where they utilize a 60% pass rate. The matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, while a divisional rivalry, also presents opportunities.

The Cowboys defense has shown moments of vulnerability, and Hurts consistent ability to find the end zone through the air, particularly against NFC East opponents, makes him a strong candidate to exceed this two-touchdown threshold. The +120 odds offer a substantial edge, reflecting a projected win probability that significantly outstrips the implied probability from the sportsbook. This bet is further strengthened by the context of a high-stakes divisional game. These are the types of matchups where Hurts typically elevates his play, and his track record against these specific opponents provides a strong statistical foundation.

The combination of consistent divisional scoring and elite red zone efficiency makes the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns a high-confidence play.

DeWanna Bonner is poised to exceed her 11.5-point total, fueled by a potent combination of recent stellar form, veteran savvy, and a supportive team environment. Bonner is currently in an undeniable hot streak, highlighted by a recent 19-point performance that significantly surpassed her season average. This surge in scoring output is not an anomaly but rather a testament to her ability to consistently impact the game offensively, even at 38 years old.

The Phoenix Mercurys current four-game winning streak creates an ideal backdrop for Bonners continued success. This positive momentum translates into a confident team dynamic, which generally leads to consistent minutes and increased scoring opportunities for key contributors like Bonner, who operates effectively off the bench. Her extensive 15 seasons of WNBA experience are invaluable, allowing her to efficiently read defenses, exploit matchups, and consistently find ways to score, regardless of specific positional assignments.

While specific defensive matchup data against forwards for the Washington Mystics is limited, this absence of a clearly defined defensive stopper presents an opportunity for Bonners versatile scoring abilities to shine. Her veteran composure and proven offensive repertoire enable her to adapt and score against various defensive schemes. The optimal rest period of two days since her last game further ensures she is physically primed to deliver a strong scoring performance.

The -104 odds for the Over 11.5 points, combined with a projected win probability of 55% and a robust expected value of 7.88%, clearly indicate a statistically advantageous bet. This proposition offers a solid edge and a high degree of confidence, making it a prime selection for bettors seeking value in the WNBA.