Star Player NFL Props: November 4th, 2025

Drake London presents an elite value proposition for the Over 35.5 yards on his longest reception. His recent surge in form, highlighted by an explosive 118 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 9, including a 58-yard reception, underscores his big-play capability. Over his last five games, London has averaged an impressive 12.5 yards per reception (YPR) with a remarkable 19.1% explosive play rate. This consistent ability to generate chunk yardage is directly supported by the matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts secondary has struggled significantly, ranking in the bottom third of the NFL in yards allowed to wide receivers, and specifically allowing a lower 8.9 YPR to opposing WR1s compared to Londons 12.5 YPR.

This creates a clear mismatch where Londons physicality and vertical threat should thrive. The projected game script also heavily favors this prop. With the Falcons anticipated to be significant underdogs, potentially losing by a substantial margin, they will be forced into a pass-heavy, comeback mode. This scenario inherently increases the likelihood of deep shot attempts, maximizing Londons opportunities to break a long reception. His snap count is expected to remain stable at over 60 snaps, and his target share is consistently high, ensuring he remains a focal point of the offense regardless of the score.

The dome environment at Lucas Oil Stadium further negates weather concerns, promoting a high-volume, big-play passing attack that aligns perfectly with Londons strengths and this specific prop. Furthermore, the Colts pass rush has been relatively weak, with a low sack rate, which means the quarterback will have more time to find receivers downfield. This extended time in the pocket benefits Londons ability to get open on deep routes and make contested catches. His advanced metrics, including a 4.3% big play rate (40+ yards), confirm his vertical threat. The combination of his personal form, the exploitable defensive matchup, the favorable game script, and the neutral venue conditions creates a scenario where hitting a reception of 35 or more yards is highly probable.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5 against the New England Patriots represents a compelling value proposition, underpinned by a significant analytical edge. The mathematical model projects the Buccaneers to win by a margin of 4.7 points, which is a substantial 2.2-point difference compared to the market line of -2.5. This discrepancy suggests the market is undervaluing the Buccaneers potential performance in this specific matchup.

The Buccaneers offense is demonstrably more potent than the Patriots defense. Tampa Bay averages 24.6 points per game, while New Englands defense allows 18.8 points per game, creating a 5.8-point per game advantage for the Buccaneers. This offensive efficiency, coupled with a projected game flow that favors more than 60 plays, provides ample opportunities for the Buccaneers to exploit this advantage.

The mathematical projection for the Patriots indicates they will score significantly fewer points than their season average, further solidifying the favorable matchup for Tampa Bay. Furthermore, the Buccaneers possess a higher explosive play rate than the Patriots, indicating their capacity to generate game-changing plays that can significantly impact the spread. This ability to produce big gains, combined with their consistent offensive production, suggests they are well-equipped to cover the -2.5 spread.

While historical head-to-head records might favor the Patriots, the Buccaneers current home record of 2-1 and their overall strong performance this season, where they are 6-2, indicate a team playing at a high level. The home field advantage, while factored into projections, appears to be exceeded by the Buccaneers intrinsic strengths in this matchup.

Josh Giddeys Over 13.5 assists prop is an exceptionally high-value play, driven by his pivotal role as the primary facilitator for the Chicago Bulls high-octane offense. Giddey has been in stellar form, averaging 11.8 assists per game over his last five contests, establishing a robust floor for this prop. This upward trend in his playmaking is crucial, as he has recorded nine or more assists in each of his last three games, demonstrating a consistent commitment to distributing the ball. The Bulls offensive system is built around fluid ball movement, leading the league with an impressive 30.6 assists per game.

The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers presents a significant opportunity for Giddey to rack up assists. The 76ers defensive unit is severely compromised by injuries, particularly to key players like Joel Embiid and Paul George, which disrupts their defensive rotations and creates exploitable passing lanes. This defensive frailty is reflected in their league-low ranking, allowing 26.5 assists per game, placing them in the bottom third of the NBA. The 76ers backcourt also lacks the size and defensive discipline to effectively contain dynamic playmakers like Giddey, further enhancing his assist potential.

The absence of Coby White for the Bulls guarantees that Giddey will continue to handle the bulk of the primary playmaking duties. This increased responsibility, combined with the Bulls offensive depth which features multiple players scoring at least 11 points per game, ensures Giddey has numerous reliable targets on every possession. The game being played at the United Center, the Bulls home venue where they have been dominant with a 3-0 record, provides an additional boost to their offensive efficiency and Giddeys confidence. While the 13.5 assist line is demanding, the confluence of Giddeys elite playmaking form, the 76ers defensive weaknesses due to injuries, and the Bulls offensive strengths makes this an aggressive but highly probable outcome.