Breaking Down NFL Prop Bets for November 9th, 2025

Jake Bates is poised for a strong performance with the Over 1.5 Field Goals Made prop, a bet deeply rooted in his recent flawless execution and a game script that heavily favors settling for three points. Bates has been nothing short of perfect in his last four contests, maintaining a 100% Field Goal Percentage.

This isnt just about making kicks; its about the reliability and confidence hes instilled, averaging 1.75 field goals over this span, which already surpasses the required line. The matchup against the Detroit Lions presents a significant challenge for the Commanders offense.

The Lions boast a formidable pass rush, averaging 3.1 sacks per game, which is highly likely to disrupt the Commanders offensive flow, particularly in the red zone. This pressure will force drives to stall, increasing the probability of field goal attempts rather than touchdowns.

Furthermore, the projected blowout scenario, with the Commanders facing a substantial point spread, suggests they will be playing from behind, necessitating aggressive play calling that often leads to stalled drives and subsequent field goal opportunities. Bates complete monopoly on all field goal and extra point duties ensures that any scoring opportunity will funnel through him, maximizing his potential to clear this modest line.

TreVeyon Henderson is positioned for a significant workload increase, making the Over 75.5 Rushing Yards an authoritative play. The absence of Rhamondre Stevenson due to injury is the primary catalyst, thrusting Henderson into the RB1 role. His Week 9 performance offered a glimpse of his potential, amassing 55 rushing yards on 14 carries, complemented by 4 receptions for 32 yards, showcasing his dual-threat capabilities.

His current efficiency stands at a respectable 4.3 yards per carry (YPC). The matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers presents an exploitable defensive front. The Buccaneers have allowed 15 sacks in their last three games, indicating their defense is susceptible to pressure, which can often open up running lanes as opposing offenses try to control the clock.

The Patriots offensive situation is further compounded by the absence of WR Kayshon Boutte, which is likely to consolidate offensive touches and target share, potentially funneling more opportunities towards the run game. The projected game script strongly favors the Patriots, especially in the second half, as they are expected to establish a lead and focus on running down the clock. This scenario directly translates to more carries for Henderson, providing a robust floor to exceed the 75.5-yard line.

Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal is a play grounded in his consistent offensive volume and pivotal role within the Maple Leafs attack. Matthews is a perennial high-volume shooter, averaging an impressive 4.07 shots per game, a figure comfortably above the 3.5 line set for this contest.

His ice time is substantial, consistently exceeding 21 minutes per game, which provides ample opportunity to generate scoring chances. Furthermore, his prominent deployment on the power play is a significant factor, as these situations often present lower-resistance shot opportunities.

While the Boston Bruins are a formidable opponent known for their defensive structure, the Maple Leafs have demonstrated a recent trend of success against them, particularly on home ice at Scotiabank Arena. This home advantage often translates to more favorable line matchups and increased offensive zone time for their top players.

The stability and high production of Torontos top offensive unit, including linemate William Nylander who is also performing at an elite level, indicates a cohesive and potent attack capable of generating consistent pressure. Even against a strong defensive system, Matthews aggressive shooting mentality and consistent deployment on special teams make him a prime candidate to clear this shot threshold.