Sharp NFL Prop Betting Moves for November 10th, 2025

Chris Boswell presents a compelling case for the Over 0.5 field goals, primarily driven by the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive identity and the Los Angeles Chargers defensive strengths. The Steelers have consistently struggled to generate consistent touchdown drives, often stalling in opposing territory. This reality forces them to rely heavily on Boswells leg to put points on the board. His exceptional field goal conversion rate of 87.5% this season, converting 14 of 16 attempts, underscores his reliability when called upon.

The matchup against the Chargers further amplifies this reliance. Los Angeles boasts a strong pass defense, which is likely to stifle the Steelers aerial attack and make sustained drives difficult. Conversely, the Chargers run defense is also formidable, suggesting that Pittsburghs ground game may also face significant resistance. This combination of offensive stagnation and opponent defensive prowess creates a scenario where field goal attempts become a primary scoring avenue.

Furthermore, the game being played in a dome eliminates any weather-related concerns that could impact a kickers performance. This consistent environment removes a significant variable that can sometimes derail a kickers production. Boswells consistent ability to attempt at least one field goal in 8 of 9 games this season provides a robust historical floor for this prop, making the Over 0.5 line appear almost a certainty given the projected game flow and offensive limitations. The absence of readily available props for other Steelers players, outside of kickers, also concentrates the betting value on Boswell.

This suggests that the market recognizes the inherent scoring dependency on the kicker in this particular matchup. The high assessed win probability and edge indicate a significant mispricing of this market, making it a standout selection.

Jaylen Warrens combined rushing and receiving yards prop presents a compelling opportunity, despite a recent dip in production. While his Week 9 output of 29 scrimmage yards was underwhelming, his season-long performance provides a more reliable baseline that comfortably exceeds the 49.5-yard line. The Steelers offensive scheme is expected to lean heavily on a pass-heavy approach against the Los Angeles Chargers, primarily due to the Chargers formidable pass defense. This game script directly benefits Warrens role as a pass-catching back.

The Chargers exhibit a specific vulnerability to running backs who are effective in the passing game, a niche where Warren excels. His ability to contribute both as a runner and a receiver gives him multiple avenues to accumulate yardage. Even if the run game faces challenges against the Chargers defensive front, Warrens involvement in the passing game should provide a consistent floor for his receiving yards, which are crucial in hitting this combined prop. With no significant injuries impacting his role, Warren is expected to maintain his prominent position within the Steelers offensive game plan.

The potential for a pass-heavy approach mitigates the risk of a run-only scenario that might limit his opportunities. Furthermore, the lack of readily available props for other Steelers offensive players concentrates value on Warren, making this a standout bet. The projected game script, emphasizing passing, is the key driver here. Warrens dual-threat capabilities are perfectly suited to exploit any weaknesses the Chargers may have in defending running backs out of the backfield.

This matchup leverage, combined with his established role, points towards a strong performance exceeding the 49.5-yard threshold.

Stephen Currys scoring prop of Over 24.5 points against the Indiana Pacers presents a solid opportunity, even with a slight illness concern. Currys season scoring average of 26.8 points per game establishes a high floor for this bet, indicating his consistent ability to surpass this line. The projection model, even with a precautionary adjustment for his questionable status due to illness, still lands at 26.3 points, suggesting a statistical edge for the Over. The matchup against the Pacers defense is not a significant deterrent.

While not a particularly weak defensive unit, they do not possess specific personnel or schemes that have historically stifled Currys scoring prowess. This neutral matchup means Curry is likely to operate within his usual offensive framework, where he is a perennial scoring threat. The Warriors home-court advantage further bolsters this pick, with Curry typically performing at a higher level in front of his home crowd. Furthermore, the game script is projected to be competitive, with the Warriors favored by a moderate margin.

This reduces the risk of a blowout scenario where Curry might see reduced minutes in the fourth quarter. His expected full workload ensures he has ample opportunity to reach the 24.5-point threshold. The lack of a back-to-back situation also means he should be adequately rested and ready to perform at his usual high standard. While the illness is a valid consideration, the projection model has already factored in a conservative scoring adjustment.

The current odds of -132 provide a slight edge, indicating positive expected value. The calculated probability of hitting the Over comfortably exceeds the implied probability from the odds, making this a calculated and value-driven bet.