Advanced NFL Prop Betting Insights for November 13th, 2025

Breece Hall is poised for a significant rushing performance against the New England Patriots. His recent form has been exceptional, averaging 85.3 rushing yards over his last three contests, consistently surpassing the 75.5-yard threshold. This upward trend is bolstered by an anticipated increase in workload due to the absence of Garrett Wilson. We project Hall to see around 20 carries per game, a volume that directly targets the Patriots vulnerable run defense.

New England ranks 16th in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 116.7 rushing yards to opposing backfields, presenting a clear exploitable weakness. Halls efficiency, demonstrated by a 4.2 yards per carry (YPC) average, further solidifies his potential to exceed this line even against a middling defense. The game script, while potentially seeing the Jets trailing, is mitigated by Halls significant involvement in the passing game. His role as a receiver ensures he maintains a high volume of touches and opportunities to accumulate yardage, regardless of the overall offensive flow.

Even in a potential blowout scenario, Halls workhorse role is expected to persist, maintaining a solid floor for his rushing output. The Patriots defense, while competent in some areas, has shown susceptibility to the run, making this a favorable individual matchup for Hall. Furthermore, the stability of the betting line over the past five hours suggests no significant market shifts, indicating the current 75.5-yard total might be undervalued. The injury to Garrett Wilson is a critical factor, vacating approximately 5-7 targets and carries that Hall is expected to absorb, further boosting his projected volume.

While the Jets offensive line has shown some struggles in run blocking, Halls ability to create yards after contact and his consistent efficiency provide a strong analytical edge against a defense that allows over 116 rushing yards per game to opponents.

While specific statistical support was not detailed in the provided source analysis for Justin Fields passing yards prop, the context of a divisional matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings suggests a potentially high-scoring and competitive game. These divisional rivalries often feature elevated intensity and can lead to increased offensive output from both sides. Given the Over 200.5 Passing Yards projection, the underlying analysis likely anticipates Fields being forced to throw the ball frequently due to game script or the need to keep pace with the Vikings offense.

The rationale behind this projection, even without explicit metrics, would typically hinge on the idea that Fields will be a central figure in his teams offensive strategy. In divisional games, defenses are often familiar with each others tendencies, but the dynamic nature of a quarterback like Fields can create unique opportunities. The absence of specific data points in the provided text makes a deep dive into matchup specifics challenging, but the edge and win probability cited suggest a calculated confidence in this prop exceeding the number.

The high value rating of 8.5/10 also indicates that, despite the lack of granular detail, the model or analyst has identified significant positive indicators for this bet. This could stem from historical performance trends in similar divisional games, projected defensive schemes that are susceptible to the pass, or an expectation that the game will be a back-and-forth affair where passing volume is key. The 55% win probability, while not overwhelming, combined with the 4.5% edge, points to a situation where the market might be slightly undervaluing Fields passing potential in this specific contest.

TreVeyon Henderson presents an exceptional value proposition for the Over 1.5 touchdowns against the New York Jets, fueled by his expanded role and a highly exploitable defensive matchup. Henderson has been on a scoring tear, finding the end zone multiple times in three of his last seven games, including a recent standout performance with 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This scoring consistency, coupled with the injury to Rhamondre Stevenson, has firmly entrenched Henderson as the primary goal-line back for the Patriots, guaranteeing him high-leverage red-zone opportunities.

The New York Jets defense stands out as a significant factor in this prop. They are one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing an average of 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game and ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed. This defensive frailty aligns perfectly with Hendersons strengths and the Patriots historical potency at home, where they average 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game.

The projected game script, with the Patriots expected to win comfortably, further supports a run-heavy approach in the second half, maximizing Hendersons chances to cross the goal line multiple times. Hendersons efficiency, evidenced by his yards per carry and explosive play rate, combined with his increased volume and red-zone focus, creates a potent combination against a struggling Jets defense. The calculated true probability of 61.54% against the implied probability of the +160 odds results in a substantial 60% edge, making this a high-conviction play with a 9/10 value rating.

Even in a potential blowout, Hendersons role in establishing the run and scoring opportunities is likely to be prioritized.