Top NFL Prop Betting Picks: November 16th, 2025

Jason Myers kicking points prop presents a compelling opportunity on November 16th. His season-long performance has been remarkably consistent, averaging 8.8 kicking points per game, which significantly surpasses the current line of 7.5. This sustained production is not an anomaly; Myers has been a reliable scorer for the Seahawks, converting an average of 1.9 field goals and nearly all of his extra points. The Seahawks offense, projected for an implied team total of 24.5 points, consistently moves the ball into scoring territory, often stalling in the red zone. This offensive efficiency, coupled with the Rams defensive tendencies to force field goal attempts on a notable percentage of opponent drives, creates a high volume of opportunities for Myers.

The game environment itself is conducive to a strong kicking performance. Ideal weather conditions, with temperatures around 55°F and minimal wind, eliminate a significant variable that can impact kicking accuracy. Furthermore, the projected competitive nature of the game, indicated by a relatively close spread, suggests that both teams will continue to execute their offensive game plans throughout, preventing excessive clock management that could limit scoring opportunities. The line movement from 7.0 to 7.5, despite public sentiment leaning towards the under, is a strong indicator of sharp money identifying value on the over, further solidifying this pick. Myers reliability from mid-range, specifically his 92% success rate from 40-49 yards, is crucial for prop betting.

These are the types of kicks that often decide whether a kicker goes over or under their projected point total. The Seahawks offensive scheme, which often relies on sustained drives and short-to-intermediate passes, frequently results in drives that stall just outside the end zone. This is precisely the scenario that maximizes field goal attempts. Coupled with his strong historical performance, hitting the over on this line in 68% of games this season, the underlying data strongly supports an aggressive approach. Considering the confluence of player form, offensive projection, favorable game script, and ideal weather conditions, the Over 7.5 Kicking Points for Jason Myers is a high-confidence selection.

The market has shown signs of professional endorsement through line movement, and the underlying metrics suggest a clear edge. This bet aligns with a consistent performer in a scenario designed to maximize his scoring output.

Cameron Dickers prop for Over 1.5 Player PATs Made presents a significant value proposition for November 16th. The Los Angeles Chargers are projected with a robust implied team total of 23 points, which strongly indicates they will reach the end zone multiple times. Historically, a team scoring 23 points typically converts at least two touchdowns, and consequently, attempts at least two extra points. Dicker has demonstrated reliability as a kicker, and this bet hinges on the Chargers offense consistently finding the end zone, a scenario made highly probable by their offensive capabilities. The Chargers offensive efficiency, spearheaded by quarterback Justin Herbert, is a key driver for this projection.

Herberts high quarterback rating and consistent touchdown production through the air ensure that the Chargers move the ball effectively and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Their ability to generate passing touchdowns, coupled with the overall offensive output, suggests a high likelihood of multiple scoring drives culminating in PAT attempts. The opposing Jaguars defensive struggles, particularly in preventing passing touchdowns, further bolsters the Chargers offensive outlook. The game script also favors this prop. The Chargers are projected to be in a favorable position, potentially leading for a significant portion of the game.

This positive game script encourages an aggressive offensive approach, maximizing scoring opportunities early and throughout the contest. A high implied team total in a game where the Chargers are expected to control the pace means they will likely continue to push for points, increasing the chances of multiple touchdowns and subsequent PATs. The efficiency of the Chargers offense, as evidenced by their strong QB rating and touchdown numbers, is the bedrock of this bet. Furthermore, the markets assessment of this prop appears to undervalue the Chargers offensive potential. The calculated true probability of Dicker making over 1.5 PATs significantly exceeds the implied probability derived from the odds.

This discrepancy creates a substantial edge, making it an attractive bet. The low line of 1.5 PATs, in conjunction with a projected team score well over 20 points, represents a clear opportunity for bettors to capitalize on what appears to be an inefficiently set line.

David Montgomerys Longest Rush prop for Over 11.5 yards on November 16th presents an elite value opportunity, driven by a confluence of factors including a highly favorable game script, his proven explosive ability, and a exploitable matchup against the Eagles run defense. Montgomery has demonstrated a consistent knack for breaking off chunk plays, having hit the 12-yard mark in six of his last eight games, translating to a robust 75% success rate for this specific prop. His rolling average for longest rushes over the past three contests stands at an impressive 18.0 yards, comfortably exceeding the 11.5-yard line. The projected game script is overwhelmingly positive for Montgomery. The Lions are massive favorites, projected to be 27.3-point winners.

This significant spread guarantees a game where Detroit will likely lean heavily on the run game in the second half to control the clock and seal the victory. In such blowout scenarios, Montgomerys usage and snap share tend to increase, positioning him as the primary ball carrier to grind out yards and manage the game clock. His efficiency metrics, including a 5.1 yards per carry average, underscore his ability to gain significant yardage on any given run. The matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles run defense is particularly advantageous. The Eagles rank 22nd in the league in allowing explosive runs, conceding runs of 12 or more yards on 12% of opponent carries.

This aligns perfectly with Montgomerys own explosive run rate of 11.8%. The Eagles have struggled to contain big runs, having given up a 12+ yard run in seven of their nine games. This suggests a defense that is susceptible to breaking tackles or missing assignments in the run game, creating clear opportunities for Montgomery to find open space. Furthermore, market indicators suggest professional bettors are aligned with the Over. The line has already moved from 10.5 to 11.5 yards, indicating sharp money is targeting this prop.

Despite public sentiment potentially leaning towards the Under, this reverse line movement is a strong signal of confidence in Montgomerys ability to break a long run. The combination of his personal form, the projected game script, and the defensive vulnerabilities of the Eagles creates a situation where exceeding 11.5 yards on his longest rush is highly probable.