Expert-Grade NFL Prop Selections: November 16th, 2025

Baker Mayfield finds himself in a precarious situation against a formidable Buffalo Bills secondary. The Buccaneers are projected to face a significant negative game script, likely trailing by nearly 20 points, which will force Mayfield into a high-volume, high-risk passing attack. Compounding this challenge is the critical absence of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving, removing over 29 targets from the equation. This forces Mayfield to rely on less experienced receivers, increasing the likelihood of errant throws and interceptions. The Bills defense, particularly at home, has a proven track record of forcing turnovers, ranking 8th in the league in interceptions. Mayfields recent form also points to ball security issues, with at least one interception in five of his last eight games.

The negative game script is a primary driver here. With the Buccaneers expected to be playing from behind for the majority of the contest, Mayfields pass attempts will surge well above his season average. This increased volume, coupled with the pressure from a strong Bills pass rush and the necessity of throwing to less reliable targets, creates a perfect storm for an interception. The Bills secondary is adept at capitalizing on mistakes, and with the Buccaneers offensive weapons depleted, the opportunities for them to do so are amplified. Mayfields historical struggles against the Bills, averaging 1.2 interceptions per game in head-to-head matchups, further solidify this projection. The combination of a projected blowout, depleted receiving corps, and an opportunistic defense makes the Over on interceptions a highly attractive proposition.

Furthermore, the Bills defense excels at creating turnovers at home, forcing them in 78% of their home contests. This defensive pressure, combined with Mayfields tendency to force throws when under duress or when his primary options are covered, significantly elevates the probability of an interception. The Buccaneers offensive line, which allows over two sacks per game, will be facing a stout Bills pass rush, further increasing the pressure Mayfield will face. This constant pressure, coupled with the lack of reliable separation from his receivers, will inevitably lead to forced throws into tight windows, a recipe for interceptions. The statistical edge is also noteworthy. The calculated true probability of an interception sits at 60.7%, providing an 8.3% edge over the implied probability at the current odds.

This statistical advantage, when layered upon the clear situational and matchup disadvantages for Mayfield and the Buccaneers, presents a compelling betting opportunity with a high degree of confidence.

Jaylen Warren is positioned for a significant workload in Week 11, making his combined rushing and receiving yards prop of 79.5 a compelling Over bet. As a primary offensive weapon for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Warren consistently delivers solid production, as evidenced by his recent fantasy rating of 7.7. The Steelers are expected to lean heavily on their run game to control the clock against the Cincinnati Bengals, a strategy that directly benefits Warrens volume. This positive game script, coupled with the Bengals defense being hampered by injuries on both the defensive line and in the secondary, creates exploitable matchups for Warren to gain yards both on the ground and through the air.

The Bengals defensive unit is not at full strength, with several key players listed as questionable or out. These personnel losses create potential gaps in their run defense and leave their secondary more vulnerable to pass-catching running backs. This is precisely the type of scenario where Warren can thrive, as he has proven capable of making plays in space and grinding out tough yards between the tackles. The Steelers coaching staff is likely to prioritize establishing the run early and often to keep the Bengals offense off the field, ensuring Warren receives a consistent stream of touches throughout the game.

Furthermore, Warren has historically performed better at home, and this matchup at Pittsburghs home stadium adds another layer of confidence to this selection. The familiar environment and the support of the home crowd can contribute to a more effective offensive performance. Considering Warrens established role as a key offensive contributor and the favorable matchup against a compromised Bengals defense, the 79.5-yard line appears to be set at a level that Warren can comfortably surpass, especially with the expected emphasis on the run game. His consistent production and the Steelers strategic approach to this game make the Over a strong value proposition.

The combination of a significant workload, a favorable matchup against an injured defense, and a game script that prioritizes the run game creates a high probability for Warren to exceed his combined yardage total. His ability to contribute in both the rushing and receiving game provides multiple avenues for him to accumulate yards, making the Over a well-supported bet.

James Cook is poised for a significant workload against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, making the Over 17.5 rushing attempts a highly confident selection. The Buffalo Bills are projected to be heavy favorites, with a spread of nearly 20 points, which strongly suggests a blowout scenario. In such games, teams with a lead typically lean heavily on the run game to control the clock and limit risk. Cook, who averages over 18 rushing attempts per game, commands approximately 60% of the Bills league-leading rushing attack, and this share is expected to increase in a blowout. The Buccaneers run defense is a significant weakness, ranking 25th in the NFL and allowing nearly 100 rushing yards per game.

Compounding this issue, they are missing key run defenders, further degrading their ability to stop the run. This matchup presents an exploitable scenario for Cook, especially considering the Bills offensive line is at full strength and ranks highly in run block win rate. The Bills offensive scheme, particularly their outside zone runs, is highly effective against defenses that struggle to contain it, and Tampa Bays defense fits this description. Furthermore, historical data supports this projection. In the Bills previous blowout victories (leading by more than 14 points), Cook has averaged over 21 rushing attempts per game.

This trend indicates a clear coaching tendency to feature Cook heavily when the game script allows. Even with potential fourth-quarter substitutions, Cooks projected snap share and the first-half volume are expected to be substantial enough to push him well over the 17.5-attempt line. The combination of a dominant game script, a weak opponent run defense, and established coaching tendencies creates a high probability for Cook to exceed this rushing attempt total. The efficiency metrics also bolster this pick. Cooks high first-down rate and success rate demonstrate his ability to move the chains and stay on the field, which is crucial for accumulating rushing attempts.

The projected rushing yards before contact further suggest that the offensive line will create ample opportunities for Cook to gain positive yardage, encouraging more carries throughout the game. The value is substantial, with a calculated edge of over 14% compared to the implied probability at the current odds.