Sharp NFL Prop Betting Moves for November 17th, 2025

Brandon Aubreys field goal prop presents a compelling opportunity, underpinned by his remarkable consistency and the favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Aubrey has been a model of efficiency this season, converting an exceptional 92% of his 25 attempts, which translates to an average of 2.2 attempts per game. This high volume is not an anomaly; its a testament to his integral role in the Cowboys offensive scheme. The Raiders defense has struggled significantly in the red zone, allowing opponents to settle for field goals on 48% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.

This defensive deficiency is a critical factor, as it directly increases the probability of Aubrey being called upon for multiple scoring opportunities, even if drives stall. Furthermore, Aubrey has a proven track record of clearing this 1.5 field goal line, doing so in 70% of his games this season. This historical trend provides a strong statistical foundation for the Over. The game being played in a dome environment at Allegiant Stadium is another significant advantage, ensuring perfect kicking conditions free from adverse weather elements that can plague outdoor games.

This eliminates a common variable that can impact a kickers performance and increases the likelihood of successful conversions. The Cowboys offense is also designed for high-volume possessions, averaging 64.4 plays per game, which further bolsters the potential for multiple scoring drives. While a potential blowout scenario exists, with the Cowboys heavily favored, the Raiders defensive struggles in the red zone still create a robust floor for Aubreys field goal attempts. Even if the Cowboys secure a comfortable lead, they are likely to generate enough early-to-mid-game scoring opportunities to push Aubrey over the 1.5 mark.

The calculated edge of 17.6% over the implied probability at -110 odds signifies a significant value proposition, making this a high-conviction play.

Ashton Jeanty emerges as the highest-value prop for the Las Vegas Raiders, primarily due to the significant uncertainty surrounding quarterback Geno Smiths availability. Smith is currently listed as Questionable with a quad contusion, a situation that directly impacts the Raiders offensive strategy. If Smith is limited or sidelined, the Raiders will be forced to lean heavily on their ground game, making Jeanty the focal point of their offensive attack. His status as the sixth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft underscores his importance and the teams commitment to featuring him.

The matchup against the Dallas Cowboys presents a favorable opportunity for Jeanty. The Cowboys defense, despite recent acquisitions, ranks as the second-worst in the NFL. This defensive frailty, particularly against the run, creates a significant advantage for Jeanty and the Raiders offensive line, even with key linemen on injured reserve. The uncertainty in the passing game, with Smiths status in question, will likely lead to a higher volume of carries and potentially more targets out of the backfield for Jeanty, increasing his floor for rushing yards.

This play is less about specific statistical projections for Jeanty and more about capitalizing on a situation where his role is guaranteed to be elevated due to external factors. The potential absence or limitation of Smith forces the Raiders offensive game plan to shift dramatically towards the run. This strategic pivot, combined with a weak opposing defense, makes Jeantys rushing yardage prop a prime target for bettors looking to exploit market uncertainty. The home-field advantage at Allegiant Stadium should also help the Raiders maintain some level of offensive cohesion, even with potential quarterback issues.

Pat Freiermuths receiving yards prop against the Cincinnati Bengals represents an elite value proposition, primarily driven by the Bengals historically poor defense against tight ends. Cincinnati ranks as the worst in the NFL in defending the tight end position, allowing a staggering 26% of targets to go to this position. This defensive weakness aligns perfectly with the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tendencies, as they target tight ends at the second-highest rate in the league (34%). This creates a perfect storm of opportunity for Freiermuth to exploit a significant mismatch.

The projected volume increase for Freiermuth is a key driver of this Over. While his season averages are modest, the matchup dictates a substantial uptick in targets. The adjusted projection anticipates around 6.0 targets for Freiermuth, a significant jump from his baseline of 3.1 targets per game. This increased volume, combined with his efficient 11.8 yards per reception, leads to a projected output of 55.6 receiving yards, comfortably clearing the 50.5-yard line.

This projection is further supported by historical data, where Steelers tight ends combined for 92 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Bengals in a prior Week 7 matchup, validating the strategy of exploiting this specific defensive vulnerability. Further bolstering this selection is the confirmation of sharp money influencing the line movement. The prop opened at 47.5 yards and has since moved up to 50.5 yards, despite a majority of public bets being placed on the Under. This divergence is a strong indicator that informed bettors are targeting the Over.

Additionally, injuries to key Steelers offensive linemen could force quicker throws, increasing Freiermuths role as a safety valve and leading to more short-area targets, further supporting the volume projection. The sheer defensive inadequacy of the Bengals against tight ends makes this a must-bet scenario.