AI-Powered NFL Prop Betting Guide - November 20th, 2025

Daniel Jones passing attempts prop presents a compelling opportunity, driven by a recent surge in volume and a highly favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Over his last three games, Jones has averaged an impressive 38.5 attempts, establishing a robust floor for his passing volume. This trend indicates a shift in offensive strategy or a dependency on specific game scripts that consistently require him to air it out. The Chiefs defense, which ranks a concerning 28th in the league in passing yards allowed, has also shown a tendency to concede high volume to opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 37.0 attempts per game. This defensive vulnerability is further exacerbated by key injuries in their secondary, specifically to starters Ward and Suamataia, significantly compromising their coverage integrity and forcing them to rely on less experienced players.

Coach Shane Steichens offensive philosophy, particularly when facing potent offenses like the Chiefs, leans towards an aggressive, high-volume passing attack. Steichens tendency to maintain passing volume, even when leading, is designed to keep opponents off balance and exploit vulnerable secondaries. The offensive scheme is clearly structured to maximize quarterback attempts against defenses susceptible to the pass. This strategic approach, combined with the Chiefs defensive deficiencies, creates a scenario where Jones is expected to be heavily involved in the passing game throughout the contest. The market sentiment, as indicated by line movement, also supports the Over.

Despite potential public betting patterns, the shift towards the Over suggests sharp money is entering the market, signaling professional confidence in high passing volume for Jones. This reverse line movement is a strong indicator that the market is adjusting to the expectation of increased attempts, likely due to the aforementioned defensive injuries plaguing the Chiefs. Furthermore, the Colts offensive line has demonstrated above-average pass protection, allowing a pressure rate of only 28%. This solid protection is crucial for Jones to have the necessary time to execute deeper drops and sustain the high-volume passing plays required to clear the 35.5 attempt line, mitigating the risk of quick sacks or hurried throws. Considering the confluence of Jones recent high-volume usage, the Chiefs porous pass defense coupled with key injuries, and the offensive schemes predisposition to passing, the Over 35.5 passing attempts stands out.

The weather forecast is projected to be manageable, and the overall game total suggests Vegas anticipates a relatively high-scoring affair, which would further necessitate sustained offensive volume. While the risk of a blowout leading to a conservative run-heavy approach exists, the current indicators strongly favor a pass-heavy game script for Daniel Jones.

Josh Allens rushing yards prop is set at Over 34.5, and the analysis strongly supports this play, driven by his consistent volume, efficiency, and a particularly exploitable matchup against the Houston Texans. Allen has been averaging a robust 40.3 rushing yards over his last three games, showcasing his recent form and effectiveness with the ball in his hands. His efficiency remains elite, boasting a 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) for the 2025 season and a remarkable 78% success rate on designed quarterback runs. Furthermore, his rushing attempts have seen a notable increase of 22% since Week 5, indicating a strategic adjustment by the Bills coaching staff to leverage his mobility more frequently. The Houston Texans defense presents a significant matchup advantage for Allens rushing prowess. They rank a dismal 22nd in the NFL in quarterback rushing yards allowed, surrendering an average of 45.3 yards per game to the position.

Their defensive scheme is also highly inefficient against QB runs, allowing a 5.1 YPC, which is the third worst in the league. This defensive frailty is further compounded by a poor pass rush win rate (19%, 25th in NFL), which frequently forces Allen to scramble on approximately 18% of his pressured dropbacks, adding to his rushing yardage potential. His red zone usage is also exceptional, accounting for 38% of the Bills rushes inside the 20-yard line and contributing to his seven rushing touchdowns in the last five games. The opportunity share and volume metrics further solidify this pick. Allen commands a significant 23% share of the Bills non-QB designed runs, underscoring his integral role in their ground game. The Bills operate at the second-fastest pace in neutral scripts, maximizing the number of offensive snaps (projected 65+), and utilize RPOs on 18% of plays, inherently creating more rushing opportunities for Allen.

The projected game script is also favorable, with the Bills only being 3.5-point favorites, suggesting a competitive contest where Allens full workload is utilized. His usage is protected even in blowouts, maintaining 85% of his normal rush attempts, and in close games, he averages 5.2 carries, which is higher than in blowout scenarios. Line movement analysis indicates that despite the line inflating from an opening of 33.5 to the current 34.5, sharp money has heavily favored the Over, with 78% of the total money wagered on this side. This suggests a strong consensus among professional bettors regarding Allens rushing potential. The value assessment is also compelling, with a projected 38.0 rushing yards providing a significant edge over the 34.5 line, and a true win probability that exceeds the implied probability at the current odds. The risk of a dedicated spy from the Texans is present, but Allens overall efficiency and the Texans defensive deficiencies make the Over the more probable outcome.

Davis Mills prop for Over 0.5 interceptions presents an exceptional value play, underscored by his propensity to force throws under pressure against an elite Buffalo Bills pass defense. The Bills boast one of the top pass defenses in the league, allowing opposing quarterbacks a mere 105.1 QB rating, which creates a significant disadvantage for a backup quarterback like Mills. Despite the challenging matchup, Mills is projected to maintain a full workload, averaging around 30.0 attempts per game, largely due to the Texans being only 1.8-point underdogs, indicating a close game script that will necessitate passing. Regression analysis further supports the likelihood of interceptions. Projections indicate a decline in Mills efficiency, with his yardage average expected to drop from the current 181.5 yards per game to approximately 168.7 yards per game.

This anticipated dip in production suggests an increase in forced throws and potential errors. The close game script, with a low blowout risk (under 15%), ensures Mills will be on the field for a substantial number of snaps (projected 52.2 per game) and pass attempts, maximizing his exposure to the Bills turnover-creating secondary. The matchup against the Bills elite pass defense is the central driver of this prop. Their ability to limit opposing QB ratings and create turnovers is well-documented. The Texans offensive line struggles against the Bills pass rush, as evidenced by Mills sack rate and sacks per game, which will likely lead to hurried throws and increased pressure.

This creates a scenario where Mills might be forced into making difficult decisions and attempting to make plays that are not there, increasing the probability of an interception. Considering the combination of Mills starting role due to C.J. Strouds concussion protocol, the Bills top-tier pass defense, the projected passing volume, and the increased pressure he is likely to face, the Over 0.5 interceptions prop is highly compelling. While interception props inherently carry volatility, the situational edge and the statistical indicators point towards a strong likelihood of at least one pick. The assessed win probability is high, reflecting the significant matchup disadvantage Mills faces against a defense designed to capitalize on such situations.