Value NFL Prop Bets: November 23rd, 2025 Opportunities

Calvin Austin III presents an exceptional value proposition for exceeding 1.5 receptions. His consistent floor is evident in his 2.8 receptions per game average over eight contests this season. This reliable production has translated to hitting the over on this specific line in 6 of those 8 games, a 75% hit rate that significantly outperforms the implied probability of the odds.

The matchup against the Chicago Bears is particularly advantageous, as their defense ranks a dismal 28th in slot coverage DVOA. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by the absence of key slot defender Kyler Gordon, who is on injured reserve. The Bears have allowed a league-high 12 receptions to slot receivers in their last three games, directly targeting the area where Austin operates most frequently.

Furthermore, injuries to fellow Steelers receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are expected to funnel targets towards Austin. His base target share of 15.0% is projected to increase to an adjusted 16.5%, providing a tangible boost in volume. This increased opportunity, combined with the Bears’ defensive struggles in the slot, creates a scenario where Austin is poised for multiple receptions.

Even with a projected moderate blowout favoring the Steelers, Austins slot role is typically insulated from drastic reductions in playing time, ensuring his usage floor remains protected. His route-running prowess and quick-hitting routes are perfectly suited to exploit the Bears zone coverage weaknesses, making the over a strong play.

Chad Rylands Over 1.5 Field Goals is a compelling bet driven by the Arizona Cardinals profound struggles in the red zone. This season, the Cardinals rank dead last in the NFL with a mere 48% red zone touchdown efficiency. This means that over half of their red zone drives stall, inevitably leading to field goal attempts.

Ryland himself has been a consistent performer, averaging 2.4 field goal attempts per game and successfully hitting the 2+ field goal mark in 6 out of 10 games, a solid 60% hit rate. This prop is further supported by the game script; the Jaguars are favored by only 3.5 points, indicating a competitive contest where strategic field goals are likely to be utilized, especially in the crucial fourth quarter. The Jaguars defense, while not historically dominant, allows opponents to attempt an average of 2.3 field goals per game, aligning well with Rylands volume.

Rylands personal accuracy has also shown improvement, with an 83.3% success rate in his last three games, a positive trend that boosts confidence. The game being played indoors at State Farm Stadium eliminates any weather concerns, ensuring optimal kicking conditions. Coach Jonathan Gannons tendency to opt for field goals in medium-to-long yardage situations when trailing also favors Rylands opportunities.

The calculated 11.5% edge over the implied probability at -115 odds highlights significant value in this market.

Tyrod Taylors Over 30.5 yards for his longest completion is an intriguing prop bet, primarily driven by the projected game script. The Baltimore Ravens are heavily favored, with an anticipated blowout margin of 31.2 points. This extreme deficit will force the New York Jets into a high-volume passing attack as they attempt to catch up.

While the Jets offense has struggled, the sheer necessity of throwing the ball frequently increases the probability of a single explosive play occurring. Taylor, a veteran with 59 career starts, possesses the capability to connect on deep passes, especially when facing aggressive defenses that might leave single coverage opportunities. The injury to Garrett Wilson, the Jets primary receiving threat, further amplifies the need for Taylor to take shots downfield.

With a depleted receiving corps that includes players like Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie, the Jets may rely on these deeper attempts to generate offense. This prop is less about sustained offensive efficiency and more about the potential for one successful deep strike, a threshold that is highly achievable even for a struggling offense in catch-up mode. The projected 30-35 pass attempts due to the blowout scenario provide ample opportunity for this to occur.

The assessed win probability of 55-60% indicates a solid edge, making this a value play.