The NFL Prop Betting Report: October 9th, 2025

Jalen Hurts presents a compelling case for exceeding 1.5 passing touchdowns against the New York Giants. His historical performance against this divisional rival is nothing short of dominant, consistently finding ways to put points on the board through the air. This matchup advantage is underscored by the Giants defense, which struggles significantly in key areas. They rank 25th in red zone touchdown rate and 28th in passing touchdowns allowed per game, creating a fertile ground for Hurts to exploit. Furthermore, Hurts is currently operating at an elite level in the critical red zone.

Over his last three games, he has thrown for 8 touchdowns, showcasing an exceptional conversion rate of 71% of red zone opportunities into scores, a figure that leads all NFL quarterbacks. This efficiency, combined with a stable volume averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game in 2025, has seen him hit the Over in 100% of his last five outings. The Eagles offense is built to sustain drives and convert in scoring situations, and Hurts is the lynchpin of this success. The game script also favors a strong passing performance from Hurts. The Eagles are projected as significant favorites, which typically maintains a positive game flow for their offense.

While a blowout is a possibility, Hurts consistent snap share, even in lopsided games, ensures he will be on the field to accumulate stats. The Giants defense, particularly in the fourth quarter where they allow nearly 10 points per game, can also present late-game scoring opportunities. The matchup against the Giants secondary is particularly advantageous. They exhibit significant slot vulnerability and allow a high passer rating in coverage. Coupled with a weak Giants pass rush that struggles to generate pressure, the Eagles offensive line, bolstered by the return of key players, is poised to give Hurts ample time to find his receivers.

This confluence of player form, historical dominance, defensive weaknesses, and favorable game script makes the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns a highly attractive proposition.

Jaylen Warren is poised for a significant rushing performance against the Cleveland Browns, driven by his commanding role in the Steelers backfield and the Browns defensive vulnerabilities. Warren has firmly established himself as the lead back, commanding an impressive 68% carry share. This volume is crucial, especially given his efficient 4.9 yards per carry average against a Browns defense that is particularly susceptible to the run, ranking 24th in DVOA and allowing a concerning 4.7 yards per carry. The matchup is further amplified by the Browns struggles against specific run schemes.

They allow 5.1 yards per carry against zone runs, which is Warrens primary offensive attack. This suggests a fundamental mismatch in the interior of the Browns defensive line, where players like DT Jordan Elliott have struggled. Furthermore, the Browns linebackers, particularly Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, have shown a high missed tackle rate against running backs, indicating a propensity to allow extra yardage after initial contact. The projected game script heavily favors a run-heavy approach for the Steelers.

As projected favorites with a high win probability, Pittsburgh is expected to lean on the run to control the clock and maintain their lead. This translates to an anticipated 28-32 team carries, with Warren expected to shoulder the bulk of that load, likely between 18-20 carries. His performance post-bye has been particularly strong, averaging over 71 rushing yards per game and exceeding 80 yards in three of his last five contests, showcasing a clear upward trend in production. The market has also recognized this potential, with the line moving from 64.5 to 67.5 yards, driven by sharp action.

The return of key offensive linemen for the Steelers, such as Isaac Seumalo, further strengthens their run-blocking capabilities. This combination of a dominant role, efficient production, a favorable matchup against a weak run defense, and a projected run-heavy game script paints a clear picture for Warren to exceed his rushing yardage total.

Jalen Brunson is positioned for a strong scoring output against the Cleveland Cavaliers, making the Over 20.5 points prop an attractive option. While specific statistical trends for this particular game are not detailed, Brunsons role as the primary offensive initiator for the New York Knicks is well-established. He is expected to command significant minutes and a high usage rate, translating directly into ample scoring opportunities throughout the contest. The matchup against the Cavaliers, who are not typically known for their lockdown defense, creates a favorable environment for Brunson to score.

This general defensive susceptibility of the opponent allows the Knicks key offensive threats, including Brunson, to operate with more freedom and efficiency. The conservative setting of the 20.5-point line suggests inherent value, especially when considering Brunsons consistent scoring ability. The home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden also plays a crucial role. Historically, playing at home provides a production boost for key players, and Brunson is no exception.

This familiar environment and crowd support can often lead to a few extra percentage points in efficiency or a slightly more aggressive offensive mindset. While the exact impact can vary, its a tangible factor that supports an elevated performance. Although specific recent form and advanced metrics are not provided for this NBA pick, the core reasoning hinges on Brunsons consistent role, the opponents defensive profile, the home-court advantage, and a seemingly conservative point total. These factors combine to suggest that Brunson is well-positioned to exceed the 20.5-point threshold, offering positive expected value despite the lack of granular data.