Elite NFL Prop Betting Selections for October 15th, 2025

Jonathan Taylor is currently operating at an elite scoring pace, having already amassed 7 rushing touchdowns through the first six games of the season. This remarkable consistency, averaging 1.17 touchdowns per game, significantly undervalues the markets perception of his scoring potential at the 1.5 touchdown line. His efficiency is further underscored by 603 rushing yards and an impressive 5.3 yards per carry average, demonstrating his ability to consistently gain tough yardage and find the end zone. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers presents a direct opportunity for Taylor to exploit a defense confirmed to be weak against the run. This defensive vulnerability plays directly into Taylors high-volume, high-efficiency style, making him a prime candidate for multiple scores. Taylors form has been exceptional, with a clear upward trend in consistent scoring and yardage.

This isnt a flash in the pan; his efficiency metrics confirm his status as one of the leagues most reliable goal-line threats. The Chargers defensive struggles against the run are well-documented, and this is the primary catalyst for projecting multiple scoring opportunities for Taylor. His ability to break tackles and consistently churn out yards after contact, as evidenced by his strong YPC, should allow him to maintain or even exceed his average against this particular front. Crucially, Taylors role as the Colts primary running back is secure, guaranteeing the volume of carries and red-zone looks necessary to achieve a multi-touchdown performance. This consistent opportunity share is the bedrock of this bet. Even if the game script leans towards a pass-heavy approach, the Colts are expected to lean on the run to control the clock, thereby maintaining Taylors high carry count.

This strategy ensures he receives consistent touches and crucial opportunities, particularly in scoring territory, solidifying his red-zone priority. Furthermore, Taylor is confirmed to be healthy, eliminating any concerns regarding workload or efficiency due to injury. The Colts offense is at full strength, which further supports the potential for high scoring output. The coaching staffs tendency to lean on the run game to control the clock directly supports high rushing volume for Taylor, especially near the goal line. The projected competitive nature of the game also minimizes the risk of a blowout that could curtail his usage in the second half. The market is underpricing Taylors scoring frequency, offering a significant edge for those who bet now before potential line movement.

Garrett Wilson stands out as a prime candidate for an Anytime Touchdown, largely due to his established role as the New York Jets primary red-zone threat and the projected increase in his target share. With Allen Lazard sidelined, Wilson is expected to absorb a significant portion of the vacated targets, potentially increasing his share from 25% to 30%. This surge in volume is critical for a player already averaging half a touchdown per game and who has recorded four touchdowns this season. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers presents a favorable secondary for Wilson to exploit, as the Panthers rank 20th in passing yards allowed and have demonstrated vulnerability to opposing receivers. Wilsons consistent production, evidenced by 36 receptions and a reliable 65% catch rate, highlights his importance to the Jets offense, even amidst their overall struggles.

His performance has remained stable, providing a solid floor for his target volume. The projected game script leans neutral to slightly pass-heavy, which aligns perfectly with Wilsons role and expected target distribution of 7-9 targets per game. His effectiveness in home games, with two touchdowns already at MetLife Stadium this season, further bolsters his scoring potential. The Panthers defensive metrics against the pass are concerning for their secondary. They allow a high passer rating to opposing cornerbacks and have surrendered seven passing touchdowns this season.

Wilson, with his average depth of target at 12 yards, is capable of stretching the field and exploiting this vulnerability. The Panthers cornerbacks have also allowed a significant completion rate on passes over 15 yards, making them susceptible to Wilsons deep-threat ability. The Jets offensive lines strong pass-block win rate should provide the quarterback sufficient time to find Wilson downfield. While Wilsons touchdown production is inherently volatile, the confluence of factors—increased opportunity, a favorable matchup, and his proven ability as a red-zone threat—creates a strong value proposition. The Jets are only slight favorites, suggesting a competitive game where Wilson will likely see full usage throughout.

Although theres a note of a knee injury, he is expected to play his full role, mitigating immediate performance concerns. The analytical edge is further confirmed by his solid EPA per target against a defense that struggles to contain top receivers.

Chris Boswells recent performance and the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive profile present a compelling case for the Over 1.5 Field Goals prop. Boswell demonstrated his capability by converting three field goals in Week 6, a strong indicator of his current form and the teams reliance on his leg. The Steelers offense, averaging a robust 23.8 points per game, consistently drives into scoring territory, frequently resulting in field goal attempts. This high-floor offensive production translates directly into increased opportunities for Boswell, making the 1.5 field goal line appear significantly undervalued by the market. The expected game script for this matchup is neutral to slightly favoring the Steelers, which supports sustained offensive drives deep into Bengals territory.

This scenario is ideal for a kicker like Boswell, who thrives on consistent opportunities. The Bengals recent struggles, having lost four straight games, could lead to defensive lapses that benefit the Steelers ability to move the ball and set up field goal attempts. Furthermore, the weather conditions are projected to be favorable, with clear skies and mild temperatures, minimizing any environmental risk that could impact kicking accuracy. While the Steelers aim for touchdowns, the reality of NFL games often involves drives stalling outside the red zone, presenting prime opportunities for field goals. Boswells reliability, especially in favorable conditions, makes him a strong candidate to exceed the 1.5 mark.

The analysis indicates a significant edge over the implied probability of the current odds, suggesting market inefficiency. The calculated win probability of 66.67% and an edge of 33.33% highlight the strong value present in this prop. The Steelers offensive context, characterized by consistent scoring and a tendency to drive into field goal range, is a key driver for this bet. Boswell is not just a secondary option; he is an integral part of the Steelers scoring strategy, particularly when drives stall. The lack of any reported injuries for Boswell ensures he is available at full capacity, further solidifying his role as the primary kicking option.

This combination of recent form, offensive support, and favorable situational factors makes the Over 1.5 Field Goals prop a high-conviction play.