Smart NFL Prop Bets to Target on October 15th, 2025

Terry McLaurin stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding his reception total of 4.5 against the Dallas Cowboys. Despite a recent quadriceps injury, his established role as the Washington Commanders primary offensive weapon guarantees a consistent target volume. This is further amplified by key injuries plaguing the Cowboys defensive secondary. These personnel issues on the defensive side create exploitable matchups for McLaurin, allowing him to potentially dictate terms in coverage.

The projected game script also favors a higher volume of passing plays. The Cowboys, playing at home, are expected to drive a faster pace of play. This accelerated tempo typically leads to more offensive snaps and, consequently, more opportunities for receivers to rack up receptions. McLaurins ability to consistently command targets, even when facing tough coverage, makes him a reliable option to hit this over.

While the quadriceps injury remains a point of caution, his availability, if cleared, presents a significant opportunity. The Cowboys defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with McLaurins critical role in the Commanders aerial attack, create a scenario where he is well-positioned to surpass the 4.5 reception threshold. The calculated edge of 14.29% underscores the value present in this prop, suggesting the market may be underestimating his potential volume in this specific matchup. The Commanders rely heavily on McLaurin to move the chains and make plays, especially in crucial situations.

His ability to win contested catches and gain separation makes him a constant threat. With the Cowboys defensive depth tested, expect the Commanders to target McLaurin early and often, aiming to exploit any mismatches or coverage breakdowns.

Chris Boswell of the Pittsburgh Steelers presents a strong value proposition on the Over 1.5 Field Goals Made prop. Boswell has been remarkably consistent this season, boasting an impressive 85.7% field goal accuracy. This high level of efficiency is a critical factor when targeting a prop that requires multiple successful kicks. The matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is also favorable. The Bengals defense ranks 20th in the league in points allowed, averaging 24.6 points per game.

This suggests a defense that struggles to consistently shut down opposing offenses, creating more opportunities for drives to stall in field goal range. Furthermore, opponents have historically converted at an 81.3% rate against the Bengals, a mark that Boswells career 82.8% success rate comfortably surpasses. The projected game script also supports multiple field goal attempts. The Steelers are expected to employ a balanced offensive attack, which should lead to sustained drives. A low probability of a blowout (estimated at 15%) ensures that Boswell will likely see consistent usage throughout the game, regardless of the score.

This stability in opportunity is crucial for kicker props. Boswells role is also secure, as he commands 100% of the Steelers field goal attempts, averaging 13 total attempts this season. This unwavering opportunity share means his production is directly tied to the offenses ability to move the ball into scoring territory, rather than being subject to shifts in game flow or specific offensive play-calling decisions that might favor touchdowns over field goals. The calculated win probability of 59.5% for Boswell to hit over 1.5 field goals, coupled with a significant 9.1% edge over the implied market probability, solidifies this as a high-confidence selection. His consistent performance and the favorable matchup against a struggling Bengals defense make this prop a smart play.

Tanner Hudson has emerged as a significant red-zone threat for the Cincinnati Bengals, particularly with Joe Flacco under center. The immediate chemistry between Hudson and Flacco was evident in their first start together, where Hudson hauled in two touchdowns on just two targets. This remarkable efficiency highlights his capability and Flaccos trust in him in critical scoring situations. The Bengals offense operates with exceptional efficiency in the red zone, ranking fourth in the NFL in touchdown percentage.

This statistic is crucial for a receiving touchdown prop, as it indicates the teams propensity to convert scoring opportunities. With Joe Burrow sidelined, Flaccos increased reliance on Hudson in these high-leverage situations amplifies his potential for scoring. The game script against the Pittsburgh Steelers is projected to be pass-heavy, especially in scoring territory. The Bengals are in a must-win situation, which necessitates aggressive play-calling and a higher volume of aerial attacks, particularly near the end zone.

This pass-first approach directly translates to more targets for Hudson in situations where he has already demonstrated his scoring prowess. Furthermore, the Steelers defense is expected to prioritize containing the Bengals wide receivers. This strategic focus could leave Hudson in more favorable, exploitable matchups near the goal line. His ability to win contested catches and find space in tight coverage makes him a prime candidate to find the end zone.

The calculated edge of 20% on this prop, with a true probability of 60% for Hudson to score, represents a substantial market inefficiency. This, combined with his proven red-zone effectiveness and expanded role, makes the Yes on receiving touchdowns a highly confident selection.