Elite NFL Prop Betting Selections for October 17th, 2025

Jake Elliotts Over 6.5 Kicking Points presents a compelling opportunity, underpinned by a confluence of offensive and defensive factors. The Philadelphia Eagles offense, while potent, faces a formidable Minnesota Vikings defense that excels at limiting opposing offenses, particularly through the air. This defensive strength is projected to force the Eagles into more field goal attempts rather than consistent red zone touchdowns. The Vikings defensive prowess, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game, directly contributes to an increased likelihood of offensive drives stalling in scoring range, setting the stage for Elliotts leg.

The projected game script anticipates a closely contested affair. This competitive environment is crucial for maintaining consistent scoring opportunities for kickers. Unlike a blowout scenario where scoring can become lopsided, a tight game ensures that every drive matters, and field goals remain a vital component of offensive strategy. Furthermore, the Eagles offense averages a healthy 23.7 points per game, establishing a solid scoring floor that provides ample opportunities for their kicker.

The presence of multiple Eagles injuries, though not detailed here, is noted to potentially influence play-calling, leaning towards safer, higher-percentage field goal attempts over riskier touchdown pursuits in crucial situations. Considering the Eagles balanced offensive approach, averaging 28.7 pass attempts and 27.0 rush attempts per game, it ensures a consistent flow of drives. This balanced attack, coupled with the defensive pressures expected from the Vikings, creates a scenario where field goal opportunities are likely to be plentiful. The Vegas total, while not explicitly stated, is implied to support a high-scoring environment where Elliotts kicking points are expected to surpass the 6.5 threshold.

The calculated edge of 10.77% and an assessed win probability of 84.71% highlight the significant statistical advantage present in this prop.

Brandon Aubreys Over 1.5 Field Goals at +110 odds represents a prime value opportunity, driven by a clear mismatch in red zone efficiency and defensive tendencies. The Dallas Cowboys, despite their offensive firepower, have demonstrated a significant struggle to convert drives into touchdowns, ranking 22nd in red zone touchdown percentage over their last three games. This inefficiency directly translates to an increased reliance on Brandon Aubrey for three-point conversions. The Cowboys are consistently finding themselves in field goal range, but stalling before reaching the end zone.

Compounding this offensive reality is the Washington Commanders defensive vulnerability to opposing kickers. The Commanders defense allows an average of 2.1 field goals per game to opposing kickers, placing them among the top seven most susceptible defenses in the league in this regard. This statistic is a strong indicator that Aubrey will face ample opportunities to attempt multiple field goals. Furthermore, the projected competitive game script, with an implied Dallas win of approximately 25.9 to 21.7, suggests a high number of scoring drives, further bolstering the case for Aubreys Over 1.5 field goals.

Aubrey himself has been highly reliable, averaging 1.7 field goals per game over his last three contests with excellent accuracy. His home efficiency is also a notable factor, as he performs exceptionally well in controlled indoor environments. The line movement from -120 to +110 is also a positive signal, indicating that the market has adjusted, and the current odds offer a more favorable price for this bet. The Cowboys offensive scheme, with a projected 65% pass rate in neutral scripts, often leads to drives that stall in the intermediate areas of the field, precisely where Aubrey thrives.

Tua Tagovailoas Over 30.5 Pass Attempts is a bet grounded in his recent usage trends and a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that struggles against the pass. Tagovailoas rolling average over his last three games stands at a robust 32.5 pass attempts, already clearing the projected line. This indicates a clear pattern of increased passing volume from the Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator, signaling a commitment to the aerial attack. The Dolphins are projected to maintain a pass-heavy approach, with an estimated 60% pass play rate.

This strategic inclination is further supported by the Cleveland Browns defensive metrics. The Browns Pass Defense DVOA ranks 20th in the league, highlighting a clear vulnerability in their secondary that the Dolphins are likely to exploit. This matchup dynamic suggests that Miami will lean on Tagovailoas arm to move the ball effectively downfield. Furthermore, Tagovailoa is projected to play 100% of offensive snaps, ensuring maximum opportunity to accumulate pass attempts throughout the game.

The historical performance data also lends credence to this bet. In previous matchups against the Browns, Tagovailoa has averaged 33 pass attempts, consistently clearing the current line. The Dolphins offensive pace, which is faster than the Browns, will also contribute to a higher overall play volume, naturally leading to more opportunities for passing attempts. While the Browns possess an average pass rush, it is not expected to be so overwhelming as to completely disrupt the Dolphins offensive rhythm and force an extreme shift away from passing.