Expert-Grade NFL Prop Selections: October 22nd, 2025

Aaron Rodgers continues to demonstrate elite efficiency, even amidst receiver injuries. His rolling average completion rate over the last three games stands at a robust 65.5%, supported by an impressive QB Rating of 108.1. This consistent performance provides a strong foundation for exceeding the 21.5 completion mark. The projected game script for the Packers against the Steelers heavily favors a pass-heavy approach, with an estimated 34 pass attempts anticipated.

This volume is crucial for hitting the Over, especially considering the Packers are expected to maintain a favorable game script, potentially extending drives and creating more opportunities. The matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers presents a clear advantage for Rodgers. The Steelers defense ranks 17th against the pass, allowing an average of 203.0 passing yards per game and an opponent passer rating of 105.1. These metrics indicate exploitable vulnerabilities that Rodgers, with his precision, is well-equipped to exploit.

His high base pass attempt share of 55.8%, projected to increase to 60% due to the game script, underscores his central role in the Packers offense. The low probability of a blowout (10.3%) further mitigates concerns about reduced snaps or a premature exit from the game. Rodgers historical performance against defenses of this caliber, coupled with the Packers tendency to lean on his arm when favored, reinforces this selection. The offensive lines ability to provide solid protection will allow Rodgers the time needed to execute the passing game plan effectively.

The calculated edge of 4.7% against the current market price of -110 suggests moderate value, making this a confident Over play.

Tua Tagovailoa presents an exceptional value proposition on the Over 21.5 Pass Completions, driven by his consistent performance and a highly favorable game script. Over his last seven games, Tagovailoa has averaged an impressive 22.6 completions, establishing a statistical floor comfortably above the betting line. This consistent output, supported by a reliable QB Rating of 82.5, indicates that he is a steady performer capable of meeting and exceeding this completion threshold.

The Miami Dolphins are projected to be underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons, a scenario that inherently favors a pass-heavy offensive approach. To keep pace with the Falcons expected offensive output, the Dolphins will likely need to lean heavily on Tagovailoas arm, increasing his pass attempts and, consequently, his completion opportunities. The Falcons pass defense, while not outright poor, is considered middle-of-the-pack, meaning they are unlikely to present a significant impediment to Tagovailoas volume passing game.

While a high blowout probability of 58.2% is noted, its important to consider that even in a scenario where the Dolphins fall behind significantly, Tagovailoa is still expected to see enough volume to surpass 21.5 completions. The pace of play is also a factor, with the Falcons playing at a faster tempo, which will likely force the Dolphins to throw more often to keep up. The combination of a stable completion average, a pass-favoring game script, and a neutral defensive matchup creates a compelling case for the Over.

Devin Booker is poised to be the primary facilitator for the Phoenix Suns, making the Over 7.5 Assists prop a compelling play. With Jalen Green sidelined and the recent waiver of Jared Butler, Bookers role as the main playmaker is solidified. This increased responsibility for initiating the offense and creating scoring opportunities for his teammates directly translates to a higher assist ceiling.

The matchup against the Sacramento Kings presents an interesting dynamic. The Kings have exhibited recent volatility and chemistry issues on defense, which can often lead to breakdowns and open looks for opposing guards. Bookers ability to penetrate and draw defenders will be key in exploiting these defensive inconsistencies, creating more assist opportunities.

Playing at home in Phoenix also provides a familiar and often advantageous environment for Booker, where he has historically performed well. While specific pace and spread data are not provided, Bookers elevated role as the primary ball-handler, coupled with the Kings defensive struggles, suggests a scenario where he will be heavily involved in orchestrating the Suns offense. The existence of an alternate assist line at 4.5 further highlights the perceived value on the main line of 7.5, indicating that oddsmakers anticipate a significant assist output from Booker in this contest.