High-Value NFL Prop Bets: September 3rd, 2025 Picks

Bijan Robinson is firmly entrenched as the Atlanta Falcons offensive centerpiece, making him a focal point for scoring opportunities. His versatility in both the rushing and passing game significantly enhances his touchdown potential, allowing him to be a threat from anywhere on the field. The Falcons offensive scheme is designed to maximize his touches, and this is particularly true in high-leverage situations near the end zone.

The absence of significant weather concerns due to the domed Mercedes-Benz Stadium ensures optimal playing conditions, removing a common variable that can impact player performance. This allows for a consistent application of offensive strategy, where Robinson is expected to be heavily involved regardless of the specific game flow, though a neutral script is projected. While the injury status of Darnell Mooney is noted, its unlikely to drastically alter Robinsons core role, and could even marginally increase his target share if Mooney is sidelined.

His projected substantial snap count further solidifies his status as a featured weapon, ensuring he will be on the field for a majority of offensive plays. The value proposition for Robinsons Anytime Touchdown prop is compelling. With an assessed win probability of 70% against an implied probability of 65.5% from the -190 odds, this presents a calculated edge of 6.9%.

This discrepancy highlights a potential mispricing by the sportsbook, driven by Robinsons elite talent and guaranteed volume.

Trey McBride enters the season as a proven commodity, coming off a phenomenal 100-catch, 1,000-yard campaign. This production translates to an average of approximately 6.25 receptions per game, positioning him favorably to exceed the 6.5 reception line. His reliability as a primary target for Kyler Murray, especially in crucial third-down and intermediate situations, makes him a security blanket in the Cardinals passing attack.

The Arizona Cardinals are projected to be trailing by 6.5 points, which strongly suggests a negative game script that will necessitate a pass-heavy approach. This scenario is further amplified by playing in the Caesars Superdome, an indoor venue that typically facilitates a faster pace and higher overall play volume. These conditions are unequivocally beneficial for McBrides target volume.

McBrides snap count is projected to remain high, likely around 85% of offensive snaps, and could even increase in a trailing situation as the Cardinals lean more on their passing game. His role as the undisputed primary tight end means his target share is stable, and likely to increase in games where the Cardinals are forced to throw frequently. The value on this bet is substantial.

At +120 odds, the implied probability is 45.5%, significantly lower than our projected 55% chance of McBride exceeding 6.5 receptions, yielding a notable 20.9% edge. This represents a clear market inefficiency that astute bettors can exploit.

James Conner is the undisputed workhorse for the Arizona Cardinals backfield, commanding a significant majority of their carries and, crucially, the lions share of red zone opportunities. Last season, he averaged 12.5 carries per game and found the end zone 7 times, demonstrating a consistent ability to convert scoring chances with a 3.3% rush TD rate. His role as the primary goal-line back is well-established, making him the go-to option when the Cardinals are within striking distance. The Cardinals are favored by 6.5 points, projecting a positive game script that favors a run-heavy approach.

With an estimated 55% of plays expected to be runs, Conner is positioned to receive ample opportunities, particularly in short-yardage and goal-line situations. This favorable script directly correlates with increased touchdown potential. The matchup against the New Orleans Saints presents a vulnerable rushing defense. Last season, the Saints allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry and surrendered 19 rushing touchdowns, ranking them 18th in the league.

This suggests a defense that can be gashed on the ground, especially by a runner with Conners power and vision. The value on this prop is substantial, with an estimated 70% actual probability against the implied 63% probability at -155 odds, yielding an 11% edge. This edge, combined with Conners critical role and the favorable matchup, makes this a compelling bet. The recent line movement towards -170 and back to -155 indicates increasing market conviction on Conner scoring.