Advanced NFL Prop Betting Insights for September 4th, 2025

Jalen Hurts presents a compelling case for the Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns prop, bolstered by his consistent performance against divisional opponents. Over the past two seasons, Hurts has averaged an impressive 1.8 passing touchdowns per game specifically against NFC East rivals, signaling a reliable floor for scoring through the air in these crucial contests. This trend is further solidified by his rolling average of 1.7 touchdowns across his last eight divisional matchups, demonstrating sustained success.

His efficiency in the red zone is a significant factor, with a 22.5% touchdown rate that notably surpasses the league average of 20.1%. This indicates Hurts is highly effective at converting scoring opportunities into passing touchdowns when his team gets close to the end zone. The projected game script for this matchup further supports the Over.

Despite being favored, the competitive nature of divisional games often leads to sustained offensive efforts. The Eagles maintain a high 60% pass rate in close game scenarios, which directly translates to more opportunities for Hurts to throw touchdown passes. While a substantial lead could theoretically shift the game towards a run-heavy approach, Hurts demonstrated ability to consistently find the end zone through the air, especially in divisional play, makes this prop attractive.

The Cowboys defense, while capable, will be under pressure to contain the Eagles potent offense, and Hurts red zone efficiency is a key weapon they must counter. The combination of his historical divisional success and elite red zone conversion rate makes the Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns a confident selection.

Jalen Hurts rushing yardage prop presents an exceptional value opportunity with the Over 40.5 yards. His historical performance against the Dallas Cowboys is particularly striking, where he has averaged an impressive 51.3 rushing yards per game at a robust 7.1 yards per carry in their last three encounters. This consistent success against this specific opponent provides a strong foundation for expecting him to surpass the 40.5-yard mark. The Eagles offensive scheme under coach Sirianni consistently incorporates designed quarterback runs, especially in critical situations.

Their red zone offense boasts a 64% touchdown rate, heavily relying on Hurts signature goal-line sneaks and short-yardage runs. This usage pattern, evidenced by three of his eleven rushing touchdowns last season coming against Dallas, highlights his importance in the teams ground attack near the end zone. The matchup against the Cowboys defense presents a favorable scenario for Hurts rushing ability. Last season, Dallas struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing 4.3 yards per carry to the position and ranking 20th in QB rush DVOA.

Their second-level run defense also shows vulnerabilities, with a high yards-per-carry allowed over expectation, suggesting Hurts can break free for significant gains. The projected balanced game script, even with the Eagles favored by 3.5 points, suggests a sustained offensive effort from both sides, translating to ample opportunities for Hurts to accumulate rushing yards. Furthermore, the Eagles operate at a faster pace in neutral situations, creating more offensive plays. Their commitment to a run rate of around 52% against teams with pass-funnel defenses, like Dallas, leans into Hurts strengths.

His consistent involvement in designed runs, averaging 1.8 QB draws per game, solidifies his floor for rushing opportunities. The combination of his historical dominance against Dallas, the Eagles offensive scheme, and the Cowboys defensive vulnerabilities makes this Over a high-confidence wager.

CeeDee Lamb stands out as a prime candidate for the Over 6.5 receptions prop, driven by his indispensable role within the Dallas Cowboys passing attack and a projected game script that heavily favors his involvement. As the undisputed number one receiver, Lamb commands a target share that provides a substantial floor for his reception totals in any given contest. His chemistry with quarterback Dak Prescott is a critical factor, with a strong emphasis on the short-to-intermediate passing game, which directly translates to consistent reception volume. The projected game script, with the Philadelphia Eagles heavily favored by 8 points, dictates that the Cowboys will likely be playing from behind for a significant portion of the game.

This scenario inherently leads to a pass-heavy approach as Dallas attempts to move the ball downfield and catch up. In such situations, receivers like Lamb, who are adept at gaining yards after the catch and consistently getting open, become primary targets. Our analytical projection of 8 receptions for Lamb provides a significant edge over the 6.5 line, indicating a highly exploitable betting opportunity. The Philadelphia Eagles defense, while formidable, is expected to focus on limiting explosive downfield plays.

This strategic emphasis could inadvertently open up more opportunities for Lamb in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, where he excels. Dallas will likely need to utilize quick passing concepts to counter the Eagles pass rush, a strategy that directly benefits a receiver with Lambs ability to secure the ball and create yardage quickly. His proven track record of producing high reception numbers, even against challenging defensive opponents, further bolsters confidence in this prop. Lambs consistent usage and ability to overcome tough matchups are key indicators of his reliability.

With no known injury concerns impacting his performance and the rest of the Cowboys receiving corps intact, he is expected to command his usual high snap share and target volume. This combination of elite usage, a favorable game script, and a strong rapport with his quarterback makes the Over 6.5 receptions a highly recommended play.