Expert-Grade NFL Prop Selections: September 5th, 2025

Jonathan Taylor is positioned for a dominant performance in Week 1, making his Over 80.5 Rushing Yards prop on FanDuel an exceptional value play. As the undisputed featured back for the Indianapolis Colts, Taylor is expected to command a significant majority of the teams rushing attempts. This workload is further amplified by the potential limitation of backup Tyler Goodson due to an elbow injury, which could push Taylors share even higher. The absence of any weather concerns, thanks to the indoor environment of Lucas Oil Stadium, ensures optimal conditions for a high-volume rushing attack.

The projected neutral game script, with the Colts as slight favorites, will keep Taylor involved throughout the contest. This scenario is conducive to an estimated 18-22 carries, providing ample opportunities to surpass the 80.5-yard threshold. While specific defensive metrics against the run for the Dolphins are not detailed, Taylors individual talent and the Colts commitment to establishing the run game are the primary drivers here. The calculated mathematical edge of 12.6% underscores the significant value present in this prop, as the market appears to be undervaluing Taylors potential output.

Taylors role as the primary ball-carrier is solidified by his projected high snap count, estimated between 85-90% of offensive plays. This consistent on-field presence maximizes his opportunities to accrue rushing yards. The line movement analysis shows stability, indicating the market is not heavily leaning one way, leaving the calculated edge intact. The value assessment clearly points to this being a high-conviction bet, rated 8/10, due to Taylors elite talent, projected volume, and favorable game environment.

Justin Herbert is set to thrive in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, making his Over 231.5 Passing Yards prop on DraftKings a highly attractive proposition. Herbert enters the season fully healthy, ready to command a Chargers offense that is strategically positioned to lean heavily on the pass. This approach is a direct counter to the Chiefs formidable 8th-ranked run defense, forcing them to defend the aerial attack where they are more vulnerable, ranking 18th in the league against the pass.

The game script is projected to be a tight contest, with the Chiefs only favored by 3 points. This close spread suggests that Herbert will be engaged throughout all four quarters, needing to consistently move the chains through the air. The Chargers offensive coaching staff is expected to leverage Herberts arm, particularly against the Chiefs weaker pass defense.

The presence of key receivers like Keenan Allen, who has returned to the team, further bolsters Herberts receiving options and ensures offensive continuity. Herberts status as a franchise quarterback inherently means he is capable of delivering at a high level, and the 231.5-yard line is a mark he is well-equipped to surpass. The game being played in the dome of SoFi Stadium guarantees optimal conditions, free from any weather-related disruptions that could impact passing efficiency.

The stability of the prop line across major sportsbooks suggests a market consensus that acknowledges Herberts strong potential to exceed this total, with minimal sharp action shifting the market significantly. The calculated edge, though modest at 2.0%, combined with Herberts talent and the favorable matchup, makes this a confident selection.

Xavier Worthy presents a compelling value proposition for an Anytime Touchdown Scorer at +130 on DraftKings, driven by his projected significant role and favorable matchup dynamics. Worthy is expected to step into a crucial red zone role, inheriting opportunities left by departed receivers. His combination of size (61) and elite speed (4.25 40-yard dash) makes him a primary scoring threat, particularly within the 20-yard line. The Chiefs defense showed vulnerability last season, allowing the 7th-most wide receiver touchdowns (22), and features an aging secondary that Worthys speed can exploit.

The Chargers offensive philosophy, under Justin Herbert, emphasizes passing in the red zone, evidenced by their league-leading 67% red zone pass rate in 2024. This high rate of passing near the end zone directly translates to more scoring opportunities for receivers like Worthy. Furthermore, the Chargers have a substantial number of vacated targets from departed players, with 12 red zone targets specifically from wide receivers. This creates a clear pathway for Worthy to command a significant share of these crucial opportunities.

The current odds of +130 imply a 43.5% probability of success, which is notably lower than our projected 48% true likelihood, signaling a robust edge of over 4.5% and strong betting value. Worthys preseason performance demonstrated his red zone efficacy, converting 2 of 3 red zone targets into touchdowns. His increasing snap share throughout the preseason, culminating in 87% in Week 3, indicates a growing trust and integral role within the offense. The projected game script of a potential shootout, with the Chargers as underdogs, suggests they will likely be airing the ball out, especially in negative game scripts where Worthy could see increased targets.

The matchup against Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who allowed a high passer rating when covering the slot last season, is also advantageous, especially considering Worthy ran a significant portion of his preseason routes from the slot against the Chiefs 22nd-ranked slot defense. The speed mismatch further amplifies this advantage.