Sharp NFL Prop Betting Moves for September 7th, 2025

Aaron Rodgers debut with the Pittsburgh Steelers presents a compelling case for the Under on his passing yards. The primary driver for this projection is the formidable New York Jets pass defense, which ranked 4th in the NFL last season, allowing a stingy 192.6 passing yards per game. This unit is not only statistically elite but also features top-tier talent like Sauce Gardner, whose coverage grade of 85.2 in 2024 underscores the difficulty opposing quarterbacks face.

Furthermore, the offensive philosophy of new head coach Arthur Smith historically leans heavily on the run, with projections indicating a bottom-10 pace and a run-play calling percentage between 55-60%. This inherently limits the passing volume for Rodgers, who is expected to see only 30-32 pass attempts. The Steelers young offensive line is also likely to face significant pressure from the Jets strong defensive front, which will encourage quicker, shorter passes rather than deep aerial assaults.

The lack of preseason action for Rodgers with his new team adds another layer of uncertainty, suggesting a conservative approach to ease him into the system. This matchup is further contextualized by the games projected low total of 37.5 points and the Steelers being slight favorites, both indicators of a potentially grinding, run-oriented contest. Rodgers elite talent is undeniable, but the confluence of a top-tier opposing pass defense, a run-first offensive scheme, and the critical Week 1 adjustment period with new teammates and a new system creates a perfect storm for suppressed passing yardage.

The market has remained steady on the 204.5 line, suggesting a consensus understanding of these challenges. While Week 1 games can be unpredictable, the systemic and defensive hurdles facing Rodgers are substantial enough to warrant confidence in the Under.

James Conner is positioned for a strong outing and a high probability of scoring an Anytime Touchdown against the New Orleans Saints. His proven track record as a goal-line specialist is undeniable, evidenced by his 12 rushing touchdowns last season and a career average of 0.6 touchdowns per game. Conners efficiency near the end zone is further underscored by an estimated 60% conversion rate on goal-line carries, making him a primary target when the Cardinals are within scoring distance.

The projected game script heavily favors the Cardinals, who are favored by 6.5 points. This positive outlook suggests they will control the game flow, leading to increased rushing attempts and multiple red zone opportunities for Conner. His projected workload, handling 65-70% of RB carries and playing 60-65% of offensive snaps, ensures he will be on the field for crucial scoring opportunities.

The matchup against the Saints run defense, which ranked approximately 16th in the NFL last season allowing 115 rushing yards per game, presents an exploitable scenario. This middle-of-the-pack defense lacks the elite prowess to consistently shut down a workhorse back like Conner. The indoor game environment also eliminates weather concerns, ensuring predictable play-calling that benefits a run-heavy approach.

With an estimated 65 offensive plays projected for the Cardinals, Conner is poised to receive ample opportunities to find the end zone. His consistent production, coupled with a favorable matchup and a strong game script, makes the Anytime Touchdown prop a highly attractive bet.

Christian McCaffrey is poised for a dominant rushing performance against the Carolina Panthers, making the Over 85.5 rushing yards prop a highly attractive play. McCaffrey has been in exceptional form, averaging a remarkable 105.3 rushing yards per game over his last five contests, demonstrating both high volume and efficiency. The primary catalyst for this projection is the glaring weakness of the Carolina Panthers run defense, which has been the worst in the NFL, allowing a staggering 145.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

This porous unit has consistently surrendered big games to featured backs, with opponents exceeding 100 rushing yards in three of their last four matchups. McCaffreys usage rate is also a significant factor, as he commands an elite 75% snap share, ensuring he is on the field for the vast majority of offensive plays. This high volume, combined with an average of over 20 touches per game, provides ample opportunity to surpass the 85.5-yard mark.

The 49ers offensive line, boasting a robust 65% run-block win rate, consistently creates clear and effective rushing lanes, further enhancing McCaffreys ability to gain yardage. The game script is also heavily in favor of the Over, with the 49ers favored by 9 points at home. This suggests a game where they will look to control the clock and lean heavily on their run game, especially with a comfortable lead.

McCaffreys previous performance against the Panthers this season, where he rushed for 125 yards, emphatically showcases his dominance against this specific defense, solidifying this as a strong play.