Sharp NFL Prop Betting Moves for September 7th, 2025

Daniel Jones presents a compelling case for the Under 0.5 Pass Interceptions prop, largely due to the controlled environment of Lucas Oil Stadium. Playing in a dome eliminates weather as a factor, a significant reducer of turnover risk. Joness career average of 0.8 interceptions per game underscores a general tendency towards ball security, further bolstered by a career TD/INT ratio of 1.7. Projections suggest a 70% probability of him avoiding an interception, which, when compared to the implied probability of the -125 line, offers a substantial edge. The matchup against the Miami Dolphins also leans in favor of this Under.

While the Dolphins possess a capable defense, potential injuries to key pass-rushing contributors could diminish their ability to generate consistent pressure. This reduced pressure allows Jones more time to operate, decreasing the likelihood of hurried decisions that often lead to interceptions. The Dolphins defense ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA last season, and while they can generate pressure, the specific absence of elite rushers against Jones is a critical factor. Furthermore, the anticipated game script suggests a conservative approach. A closely contested game typically encourages teams to prioritize ball control, minimizing risky throws.

With an estimated 32 pass attempts, Jones will have opportunities, but the game flow is not expected to force him into high-risk situations. The Colts offensive scheme is likely to prioritize efficient play, aligning with Joness tendency to protect the football, especially in critical third-down and red-zone situations where he typically prioritizes ball security. The value on this prop is enhanced by line movement, with some sportsbooks offering tighter odds. The shift to -125 on DraftKings, compared to tighter lines elsewhere, suggests a market recalibration that benefits this Under bet. This combination of player tendencies, favorable matchup conditions, controlled environment, and intelligent game script projection solidifies this as a high-confidence selection with significant value.

Evan McPherson is poised for a strong performance with the Over 1.5 Field Goals prop, driven by the Cincinnati Bengals projected scoring output and the overall game total. With the Bengals expected to put 26-27 points on the board within a 47.5-point total, theres a clear indication of offensive success that will likely lead to multiple scoring opportunities. McPherson, as the Bengals established and reliable kicker, is the primary beneficiary of drives that stall in scoring territory.

The projection of 2.0 field goals for McPherson significantly surpasses the 1.5 line, presenting a clear statistical advantage. This projection is built on the understanding that even efficient offenses will encounter situations where touchdowns are not converted, especially against divisional opponents. The total game score of 47.5 suggests a competitive contest where both offenses are expected to move the ball, creating a higher volume of offensive drives and, consequently, more potential field goal attempts for both kickers, but particularly for the favored Bengals kicker.

The value proposition for this bet is substantial, with a projected 51% win probability at -106 odds, indicating a favorable edge for bettors. McPhersons consistency and the Bengals offensive capability are the cornerstones of this projection. He is a proven performer who consistently converts opportunities, and the game script is unlikely to deviate so drastically as to prevent him from reaching the 1.5 field goal threshold.

While touchdown efficiency is always a factor, the sheer volume of drives expected in a 47.5-point game total provides ample runway for McPherson to attempt and convert multiple field goals. The Bengals offensive strength, combined with McPhersons reliable leg, makes this prop a high-probability play.

James Conner is positioned for a significant workload with the Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts prop, bolstered by his consistent usage, a favorable game script, and a weak opposing run defense. Conners 2024 season average of 17.8 rushing attempts per game already surpasses the current line, establishing a strong baseline for this Over bet. This consistent volume is a testament to his role as the Cardinals undisputed primary ball carrier, commanding a substantial 78% base opportunity share of running back attempts, projected to increase to 82% in a favored role. The Arizona Cardinals are projected to be 6.5-point favorites, which is a critical factor for this prop. A significant lead typically translates into a run-heavy game script in the second half, as teams prioritize clock control and minimizing risk.

The Cardinals are expected to lean heavily on Conner to grind out yards and run down the clock, especially with a projected 40% run play ratio when leading. This scenario maximizes his opportunities for carries. The matchup against the New Orleans Saints run defense presents a clear advantage for Conner. The Saints ranked 22nd in run defense DVOA in 2024 and allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry. This indicates a vulnerability that the Cardinals offensive line, which boasted a 42% Run Block Win Rate in 2024, is well-equipped to exploit.

Conners efficiency, marked by a 4.3 YPC in 2024, should allow him to capitalize on this favorable matchup, converting attempts into productive gains. Furthermore, line movement from 17.5 to 16.5 rushing attempts strongly suggests sharp money has identified value on the Over, creating a compelling edge. Even in a moderate blowout scenario, Conner is expected to maintain a significant role, as lead backs often remain in the game to secure the win. His consistent snap count of 65-70% of offensive snaps further solidifies his high-volume potential. The combination of his established workload, a favorable game script as a favorite, and a susceptible opponent makes this Over a highly attractive proposition.