Advanced NFL Prop Betting Insights for September 7th, 2025

Evan McPherson presents a compelling case for exceeding his 1.5 field goal total. The Cincinnati Bengals are projected for a robust offensive output, estimated between 26-27 points within a 47.5-point game total. This scoring expectation, coupled with a general expectation of offensive drives reaching scoring range, creates ample opportunity for McPherson. His projection of 2.0 field goals significantly outpaces the line, indicating a clear advantage.

The Bengals offense is expected to move the ball effectively, and while touchdowns are the ultimate goal, drives often stall in the red zone or settle for three points, especially in a competitive divisional matchup against the Browns. The value assessment here is particularly strong, with an implicit 33% edge derived from the projection versus the market line. This suggests the odds are not fully reflecting McPhersons potential for multiple successful kicks. The 51% implied probability at -106 odds further underscores this value, as our analysis points to a higher likelihood of success.

McPherson has established himself as a reliable kicker, and the Bengals offensive scheme, while potent, often features drives that result in field goal attempts, particularly when facing tough divisional opponents where every point matters. Considering the game script, a 47.5-point total suggests a game where both offenses will have opportunities to move the ball. This creates a scenario rich in potential scoring drives for the Bengals. Even if the offense is efficient, the sheer volume of drives can lead to multiple field goal opportunities.

McPhersons ability to perform under pressure and his consistent accuracy make him a prime candidate to hit the over on this prop, especially when the offensive projection is as strong as it is for Cincinnati in this contest.

Nick Chubb is positioned for a significant workload and a prime opportunity to surpass his remarkably low rushing yardage line of 48.5. The critical factor here is the confirmed absence of Joe Mixon, which elevates Chubb to the undisputed primary running back role for the Houston Texans. This elevation in usage is paramount, as it ensures a volume of carries that should comfortably exceed the modest yardage total. Even a conservative projection of 55 rushing yards, requiring an average of just 3.7 yards per carry on 13 attempts, highlights the exploitable nature of this line.

The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams defense is also a significant positive. Last season, the Rams ranked 26th overall in defensive DVOA, indicating a unit that was generally vulnerable, particularly against the run. This below-average defensive performance against opposing ground attacks creates a favorable environment for Chubb to achieve strong rushing efficiency. The Texans offensive scheme is expected to mesh well with the Rams defensive weaknesses, suggesting that Chubb will find running lanes and opportunities to gain positive yardage.

The game script projection also leans in favor of Chubb exceeding this total. The game is anticipated to be competitive, with a low probability of a blowout. This means Chubb should remain involved throughout the game, receiving his full allotment of touches. Furthermore, the Texans are expected to maintain a balanced offensive attack, with Chubb as the clear focal point of their run game.

His projected snap count of 70-75% of offensive plays further solidifies his opportunity to rack up yards. As the undisputed primary back, he is also expected to command the majority of goal-line and critical third-down carries, enhancing his scoring and yardage equity.

Jordan Love is set up for success in surpassing his 21.5 pass completions prop, driven by a combination of his consistent efficiency, a favorable matchup, and a projected competitive game script. Love completed 64.2% of his passes last season, a figure that exceeds the NFL average and demonstrates his accuracy. This consistent completion rate is crucial when betting on the number of completions, as it provides a reliable baseline for projections. His average of 29.5 attempts per game last season suggests ample volume, and this game is projected to feature around 32 pass attempts for Love, which is a healthy number.

The matchup against the Detroit Lions secondary presents an average challenge, which is precisely what is needed for this prop. The Lions ranked 18th in pass defense DVOA last season, indicating a unit that is not impenetrable and can be exploited, particularly in the short-to-intermediate passing game that the Packers offense emphasizes. Furthermore, Love has historically performed well against the Lions, boasting a 65% completion rate in two career games against them, which is slightly above his career average. This historical success against the opponent adds another layer of confidence to the projection.

The projected game script is also a significant factor. The Packers are slight favorites (-1.5), suggesting a close contest where both teams will likely rely on their passing games to move the ball. A low blowout probability of 12% means Love should remain involved throughout all four quarters, providing him with the opportunity to accumulate completions. The Packers offensive line, which allowed only 32 sacks last season, should provide Love with adequate time in the pocket to execute the offense and find open receivers, further supporting the likelihood of him hitting the over.