Star Player NFL Props: September 10th, 2025

JaMarr Chase stands out as a premier option for an Anytime Touchdown bet, primarily due to his entrenched role as Cincinnatis undisputed top receiving threat. His historical red zone usage and target share consistently place him among the leagues elite wide receivers, a trend that is expected to continue. The Bengals offensive scheme, which projects around 60% pass plays out of an estimated 65 offensive plays, ensures a high volume of opportunities for Chase. Crucially, his red zone target share, often exceeding 30%, positions him perfectly to capitalize on scoring chances.

The matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars secondary presents a significant advantage. Jacksonvilles defense ranks in the bottom half of the league against opposing WR1s and is approximately 20th in DVOA against outside receivers. This vulnerability is precisely what Chase, with his dynamic skillset, is poised to exploit. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line is expected to provide above-average pass protection, giving Joe Burrow ample time to find Chase downfield or in the end zone.

The consistent near 100% snap counts Chase commands further solidifies his opportunity, ensuring he will be on the field for the vast majority of offensive plays, maximizing his scoring potential. Considering the projected game script, which anticipates a competitive environment with the Bengals at home, and their historical tendency towards a balanced, pass-heavy attack, Chase is in a prime position to find the end zone. The low probability of a blowout minimizes concerns about reduced playing time or target share. His proven track record of scoring touchdowns, particularly in home games, further bolsters this selection.

The stability of the -125 line indicates market confidence, but our analysis reveals a projected probability that still offers a compelling edge.

AJ Brown is positioned for a strong performance in receiving yards, with projections indicating he will comfortably surpass the 65.5-yard line. His established role as the Philadelphia Eagles primary receiving threat, coupled with a historical average of 82.5 receiving yards per game, provides a solid foundation for this Over bet. The Eagles offensive game script is expected to be pass-heavy, with approximately 60% of plays projected to be passes out of an estimated 65 offensive plays. This volume ensures Brown will see a significant number of targets, likely in the 8-10 range.

The matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs secondary presents a favorable scenario. While the Chiefs defense is generally solid, they are considered average against top-tier wide receivers. Browns physical style of play often creates mismatches against opposing cornerbacks, and his high Zone/Scheme Matchup Rating against the Chiefs defensive scheme further emphasizes this advantage. The Eagles offensive line, ranked among the top 10 for pass protection, will likely give Jalen Hurts the necessary time to find Brown downfield, a key element for exceeding this yardage total.

The projected competitive nature of the game, with the Chiefs favored by only 1.5 points, suggests that both offenses will be active, minimizing the risk of a blowout that could limit offensive opportunities. Browns consistent near 100% snap count further solidifies his involvement. Even if the Eagles find themselves trailing, Browns target share is likely to increase in a catch-up situation, providing additional opportunities to accumulate yards. The stability of the line at -113 suggests a balanced market assessment, but our analysis points to a significant statistical edge for the Over.

Luis Arraez presents a compelling value proposition on the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop, largely driven by his exceptional contact ability and consistent performance metrics. Arraez boasts a robust .386 slugging percentage and averages a solid 1.55 total bases per game, placing him comfortably above the 1.5 line. His elite 96.8% contact rate is a critical factor, as it minimizes strikeouts and maximizes his opportunities to put the ball in play, thereby increasing his chances of accumulating total bases through hits or extra-base hits. The matchup against Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott, while not overwhelmingly favorable in terms of ERA, presents opportunities.

Abbotts 1.15 WHIP indicates a tendency to allow baserunners, which can create more favorable hitting situations for Arraez. Abbotts propensity to put runners on base means Arraez could come to the plate with runners already on, increasing the potential for RBI opportunities and thus total bases. Furthermore, Arraezs proven gap power, evidenced by 29 doubles and 4 triples this season, means he is more than capable of exceeding the 1.5 total bases line with a single extra-base hit. The markets pricing of +350 for this prop significantly undervalues Arraezs true probability of exceeding 1.5 total bases.

Our analysis suggests a 45% win probability, which translates to a substantial +22.8% edge over the implied probability from the odds. This mispricing creates a prime betting opportunity. Playing at Petco Park, a pitcher-neutral environment, means Arraezs performance will be driven by his skill rather than park factors. Positioned in the top half of the Padres lineup, he is guaranteed ample plate appearances, further solidifying his chances.