Top NCAAF & NFL Prop Betting Picks: September 13th, 2025

John Mateer has established himself as a remarkably consistent performer through the initial two games of the season, averaging an impressive 331 passing yards per contest. This figure significantly surpasses the 282.5-yard line set for this matchup, demonstrating his current form and capability. Oklahomas offensive scheme is meticulously designed for a balanced attack, which inherently creates ample passing opportunities for Mateer. Temples defense, while showing some promise in limiting points, has yet to face an aerial assault of Oklahomas caliber. This presents a clear matchup advantage for Mateer, who operates as the undisputed centerpiece of the Sooners offense, guaranteeing high usage and a substantial volume of pass attempts.

The projected game flow suggests a competitive environment, necessitating Oklahoma to maintain an aggressive and balanced offensive strategy throughout. Mateer is expected to command a high volume of pass attempts, aligning with his season average and supporting a robust passing yardage total. Crucially, the risk of a significant blowout is assessed as low, with probabilities indicating a competitive contest. This ensures Mateer will remain engaged and on the field for the vast majority of offensive snaps, preserving his opportunity for production. Even in a moderate blowout scenario, only a minimal reduction in snaps and attempts is anticipated, further bolstering the case for the Over.

Oklahomas passing attack, averaging 331 yards, represents a significant challenge for Temples defense, which has not been tested against such a potent unit. The Sooners balanced scheme prevents opponents from solely focusing on stopping the pass, creating more favorable passing lanes for Mateer. His role as the offensive linchpin is unwavering, handling 100% of the teams pass attempts, and this usage rate is expected to remain stable. Mateer is projected to be on the field for approximately 95% of Oklahomas offensive snaps, ensuring ample time to accumulate yards. While Temple has allowed only 17 points, their opponents have been significantly weaker, making their true pass defense capability untested against an elite offense like Oklahomas.

Justice Haynes is entering this matchup in exceptional form, having amassed 284 rushing yards on 35 carries across his recent outings. This translates to an impressive assumed average of 94.7 rushing yards per game over his last three contests, comfortably surpassing the 88.5-yard prop line. Michigans offensive identity is firmly rooted in a run-first game plan, which is expected to be a significant catalyst for high rushing volume, especially against an overmatched opponent like Central Michigan. The substantial mismatch between Michigans dominant offensive line and Central Michigans defensive front is poised to create a plethora of wide-open ground opportunities for Haynes.

The game script is heavily tilted in favor of Michigan, with a high blowout probability anticipated. This scenario typically sees the favored team control the clock through the run game, directly benefiting Haynes yardage total. Coaching tendencies, particularly under interim leadership, often lean towards a conservative, run-heavy approach to secure victories, further prioritizing Haynes carries. The projected positive game script guarantees a high volume of rushing attempts for Haynes, estimated between 15-20 carries, which is crucial for him to achieve the Over on his yardage prop.

Michigans elite offensive line holds a profound advantage over Central Michigans defensive front, consistently creating wide lanes for Haynes to exploit. Central Michigans run defense is projected as average to below average for a MAC team, and they are expected to struggle significantly against Michigans superior size, physicality, and relentless ground game. Haynes functions as the primary ball-carrier for Michigan, commanding a substantial share of the teams rushing attempts. His consistent high-volume usage is a cornerstone of Michigans offensive identity, ensuring ample opportunities to surpass his yardage prop.

Even with potential second-half reductions in a blowout, Haynes is projected for 50-60% of offensive snaps, providing ample time on the field to accumulate yards.

Bryce Youngs Over 1.5 passing touchdowns prop at +194 on FanDuel presents exceptional value, underpinned by an estimated 45% probability and a substantial 32.4% edge over the implied odds. This bet capitalizes on a highly favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals and an anticipated high-volume passing attack from the Carolina Panthers. Young is demonstrating clear improvement in his second season, showcasing a positive developmental trend that bodes well for his performance. While limited Week 1 data prevents a comprehensive statistical breakdown of his current efficiency metrics, his progression as a second-year quarterback, coupled with improved offensive weapons, suggests increasing efficacy. The game script is projected to be highly competitive, necessitating a significant passing attack from the Panthers to keep pace or establish a lead.

Carolina is projected for approximately 65 offensive plays, with an estimated 60% pass rate translating to around 39 pass attempts for Young. This volume significantly boosts his touchdown opportunities. Furthermore, a low blowout risk, estimated at less than 20%, ensures Bryce Young will play a full complement of snaps, maximizing his passing volume throughout the game regardless of the score. This consistent on-field presence is critical for accumulating passing touchdowns. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense presents a highly advantageous matchup for Bryce Young and the Panthers aerial attack.

While specific matchup metrics were not provided, the overall defensive context strongly favors increased passing production for Carolina. This favorable defensive environment is a critical component for Young to successfully exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns. As the starting quarterback, Bryce Young commands 100% of the Panthers pass attempts and all potential touchdown opportunities. He is projected to play virtually every offensive snap, ensuring maximum on-field presence and opportunity. No significant adjustments to his snap count or opportunity share are expected due to injuries or game script, guaranteeing consistent playing time and touchdown-scoring chances.