Top NFL & NCAAF Prop Betting Picks: September 13th, 2025

Jalen Hurts presents a compelling opportunity for an Anytime Touchdown wager, driven by his consistent dual-threat capabilities and a matchup that plays directly into his strengths. His career average of 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game over the last two seasons underscores his reliability as a scorer. This isnt a matter of recent flash-in-the-pan production; its a deeply ingrained aspect of his game. The Eagles are projected to be in a tight contest against the Chiefs, indicated by a narrow 1.5-point spread.

This suggests a scenario where both offenses will be fully engaged, and critical goal-line situations will likely arise. Hurts is expected to be involved in 8-12 designed runs, specifically engineered to leverage his athleticism in short-yardage and red-zone scenarios. The Chiefs defense has historically shown vulnerabilities against mobile quarterbacks. This is a crucial contextual factor, as it means Hurts ability to extend plays with his legs and create scoring opportunities outside the pocket is an advantage that the Eagles can exploit.

While raw metrics are secondary, his approximately 3.5% rush TD rate on carries further validates his efficiency in converting opportunities into scores. The projected game script, leaning towards a competitive affair, ensures Hurts will remain a central figure in the Eagles offensive attack throughout the game, maximizing his chances to find the end zone. His consistent touchdown production, averaging 0.5 rushing TDs per game over his last 16 appearances, provides a strong statistical foundation for this bet. This isnt a speculative play; its a calculated wager based on consistent performance and a favorable matchup.

The -115 odds offer a significant edge when considering his projected 60% scoring probability, which far surpasses the implied 53.5%. This discrepancy highlights a market inefficiency that astute bettors can capitalize on.

Bryce Youngs Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns prop at +194 presents an exceptional value proposition, underpinned by a highly favorable matchup and an anticipated high-volume passing attack from the Carolina Panthers. While Week 1 data is limited, the trajectory of Youngs development as a second-year quarterback, coupled with the Panthers offensive strategy, points towards increased passing efficiency and volume. The Panthers are projected to run approximately 65 offensive plays, with a significant 60% of those expected to be passes. This translates to around 39 pass attempts for Young, creating ample opportunities to reach the 1.5 touchdown mark.

The matchup against the Arizona Cardinals pass defense is a critical factor. While specific metrics were not provided, the overall context strongly suggests a favorable environment for aerial production. The Cardinals defense is expected to struggle against a motivated and improving quarterback like Young, especially if the Panthers offensive line provides adequate protection. Furthermore, the low blowout risk, estimated at under 20%, ensures that Young will likely play the entire game, maximizing his opportunities regardless of the score.

This consistent playing time is crucial for accumulating passing touchdowns. The value here is substantial, with an estimated 45% probability of Young exceeding 1.5 passing touchdowns, offering a significant 32.4% edge over the implied 34% probability at +194 odds. This indicates a mispricing in the market that savvy bettors can exploit. Youngs role as the starting quarterback guarantees he will be involved in all potential touchdown-scoring drives, and the offensive scheme is designed to get him the ball out quickly and effectively.

The combination of volume, a favorable matchup, and consistent playing time makes this prop a strong contender.

Germie Bernard stands out as a prime candidate for the Over 4.5 Receptions against Wisconsin, primarily due to his established role within Alabamas explosive passing attack and a game script that heavily favors offensive production. Bernard is consistently a primary target for the Crimson Tide, consistently commanding a significant target share estimated between 20-25%. This high usage rate, combined with Alabamas offensive philosophy, creates a strong foundation for him to exceed this reception total. The projected game flow further bolsters this selection.

Alabama is a substantial 20.5-point favorite, which, contrary to some assumptions, often leads to sustained offensive drives and ample passing opportunities, especially when a team is looking to showcase its talent. Bernard is projected to secure 5.2 receptions, comfortably clearing the 4.5 line. While Wisconsin possesses a strong defense, their secondary has not yet been tested against an offense of Alabamas caliber, particularly an elite receiving corps that features Bernard prominently. His elite route-running ability is expected to create mismatches against Wisconsins cornerbacks.

Despite a 42% probability of a blowout, Bernards projected playing time remains high, estimated at approximately 80% of offensive snaps. Even if Alabama pivots to a run-heavy approach in the fourth quarter due to a large lead, Bernard is still projected to be on the field for around 72% of snaps, providing ample opportunities to hit the Over. The +112 odds offer significant positive value, outperforming the models 55% win probability for the Over, indicating a favorable betting market. The stability of the betting line over the last five hours suggests no major market shifts or new information impacting the projection.

With Bernard healthy and a key contributor, his role is secure. Alabamas offensive scheme is adept at leveraging its receivers, and Bernards usage rate is expected to remain high, driven by the anticipated game script and his critical role within the passing offense.