In-Depth NFL Prop Betting Analysis - September 14th, 2025

Josh Allens passing yardage prop presents a compelling opportunity to target the Over. His historical performance against the New York Jets is remarkably consistent, averaging 226.8 passing yards per game in his career against this specific divisional opponent. This directly aligns with and often surpasses the current line of 226.5 yards.

Furthermore, the Buffalo Bills are projected as 6.5-point favorites, suggesting a game script where Allen will be instrumental in leading the offense. This favored status typically translates to a pass-heavy approach, with projections indicating 32-35 pass attempts. Even with a moderate 26% probability of a blowout, Allens consistent 100% snap share when healthy minimizes the risk of significant volume reduction, as he typically plays the entire game.

Allens recent form also supports this play. Last season, he averaged a robust 239.6 passing yards per game with a solid 65.8% completion rate, demonstrating his ability to consistently move the ball through the air. His passer rating of 92.2 in 2024 further underscores his efficient play.

While the Jets boast a top-10 pass defense (8th in DVOA) from the previous season, Allens proven track record against them, including 2,949 yards and 16 touchdowns in 13 career games, indicates he has the capability to overcome this challenge. The stability of the prop line at 226.5 with consistent -112 odds suggests the market may be undervaluing his consistent output against this particular opponent, presenting a potential value opportunity.

JaMarr Chase represents an exceptional value for an Anytime Touchdown bet, fueled by a confluence of factors pointing towards a dominant performance. Following a Week 1 where his reception total was uncharacteristically low, Chase is primed for a significant rebound. Quarterback Joe Burrow has publicly committed to a more aggressive offensive approach, which directly translates to increased target volume for Cincinnatis premier receiver. This aggressive play-calling, particularly in scoring situations, makes Chase the prime candidate to find the end zone.

The matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars presents an opportunity for Chase to exploit potential vulnerabilities in their secondary. While the Jaguars defense demonstrated disruptiveness by forcing three turnovers in their opening game, their ability to consistently shut down an elite receiver like Chase is less certain. Furthermore, the game will be played in optimal weather conditions at Paycor Stadium, ensuring that the passing game is not hampered by environmental factors. This clean environment supports Burrows aggressive passing game plan and maximizes Chases opportunities.

Historically, the Cincinnati Bengals hold a significant psychological advantage over the Jaguars, having won their last three meetings. This team-level success often translates into favorable game environments for offensive playmakers. As the focal point of the Bengals aerial assault, Chase is guaranteed ample opportunities, especially in critical third-down and red-zone situations. His proven ability to convert these high-leverage moments makes him the most logical choice to score.

Caleb Williams is poised to exceed his pass attempt total of 32.5, presenting a compelling betting opportunity with a 9/10 value rating. His Week 1 performance already saw him register 34 pass attempts, clearing this line against a defense generally considered more formidable than the Detroit Lions. This demonstrates his volume potential right out of the gate.

The Chicago Bears are significant 6.5-point underdogs against the Lions, which strongly dictates a negative game script. When playing from behind, teams are compelled to pass more frequently to catch up, projecting Williams for a 65% pass rate. The matchup against the Detroit Lions defense is also a key factor.

In their Week 1 opener, the Lions pass rush was notably absent, failing to record a single sack and allowing 266 total yards. This suggests that Williams may face less pressure and have more time to operate, facilitating a higher volume of pass attempts. Furthermore, the game will be played indoors at Ford Field, completely eliminating weather as a limiting factor and ensuring optimal passing conditions throughout the contest.

This combination of a projected pass-heavy game script and a defense that struggled to generate pressure creates a perfect storm for Williams to rack up pass attempts.