Expert-Grade NFL Prop Selections: September 21st, 2025

Russell Wilsons pass attempt total is set at a compelling Over 33.5, and the underlying analytics strongly support this wager. The New York Giants have established themselves as a pass-first offense, boasting a league-leading 71.4% pass play percentage. This offensive philosophy, coupled with their 32nd-ranked rushing attack, means the ball is consistently in the air. Wilsons early-season performance aligns with this trend, averaging a robust 36.5 pass attempts through the first two games, already exceeding the prop line. The matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs presents a favorable environment for continued high volume. While the Chiefs defense is not porous, they allow 7.1 yards per attempt and rank 17th in the league, indicating they are not an insurmountable obstacle for a determined passing game. Furthermore, Kansas Citys pass rush has been notably ineffective, accumulating only 4 sacks in two games. This lack of pressure will provide Wilson with ample time in the pocket to work through his progressions, sustaining drives and increasing his overall pass attempt count.

The projected game script also heavily favors increased passing volume. The Giants are underdogs by 6.5 points, suggesting they are likely to be playing from behind for significant portions of the game. This scenario inherently forces teams to abandon the run and lean on their aerial attack to catch up. Based on a projection of 68 total plays and a 64% pass rate, Wilson is forecast to attempt approximately 43.5 passes, a figure that could easily climb higher with potential garbage time throws if the game gets out of hand. Even in a blowout scenario, Wilson is expected to remain on the field, ensuring his opportunity to accumulate pass attempts is maximized. The Giants offensive pace, ranking 4th fastest in the NFL at 2.43 seconds per play, further contributes to a higher number of total offensive snaps and, consequently, more opportunities for Wilson to throw the ball. With a healthy receiving corps ready to exploit the Chiefs defense, Wilson is positioned for a high-volume passing day. The Giants offensive identity is unequivocally centered around the pass, and Russell Wilson is the focal point of this strategy.

His 100% command of the teams quarterback pass attempts, combined with the leagues second-highest pass rate, directly translates to elevated volume. The absence of any meaningful threat from the Giants 32nd-ranked rushing offense ensures that pass plays will remain the priority. Wilson is expected to be on the field for 100% of offensive snaps, guaranteeing no rotation will limit his potential. The conservative projection of 37-43 pass attempts, derived from an adjusted forecast of 68 total plays and a 64% pass rate, comfortably sits above the 33.5 line. Historically, when playing as an underdog since 2022, Russell Wilson has averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game. This trend becomes even more pronounced when his team is trailing by seven or more points, where his career average jumps to 41.7 attempts. The line movement, shifting from -110 to +100 on DraftKings, indicates a favorable shift in market perception, with 63% of betting tickets leaning towards the Over, signaling professional confidence. The Giants healthy receiving corps, with key pass catchers maintaining an 87% route participation, ensures Wilson has reliable targets throughout the game, maximizing his opportunities to distribute the ball.

Trey Bensons Over 6.5 rush attempts prop presents a compelling value proposition at +102 odds, boasting a significant 15.4% edge. As the backup running back for the Arizona Cardinals, Benson plays a crucial role in managing the workload of starter James Conner, a task that guarantees consistent carries. His efficiency this season, averaging a solid 4.2 yards per attempt, demonstrates his effectiveness when given opportunities. The Cardinals offensive strategy against the San Francisco 49ers is expected to lean towards establishing the run, particularly in a matchup that is anticipated to be a close contest between two undefeated teams. This balanced offensive approach, projected to involve running the ball on approximately 40% of plays, creates a fertile ground for Benson to exceed his prop line.

The game script projection is a key factor here. With both teams entering at 2-0, the expectation is for a competitive battle, not a blowout. This minimizes the risk of Bensons carries being drastically reduced due to a lopsided score. In fact, if the Cardinals find themselves trailing, Bensons role could even expand as Arizona attempts to control the clock and maintain offensive rhythm through the ground game. The low blowout probability of 15% further solidifies this bet, as it suggests Benson will be involved throughout the game.

The 49ers defense, while generally strong, ranks 12th against the run, allowing an average of 105.5 rushing yards per game. This presents an exploitable weakness that the Cardinals can target, especially with a capable runner like Benson. Bensons usage trend, while not astronomical, shows a stable floor with a rolling average of 5.0 rush attempts per game over the first two contests. This consistent involvement, coupled with the teams need to manage Conners carries, positions Benson for a workload that should comfortably clear the 6.5 attempt line. The offensive balance the Cardinals aim for in competitive games, especially against a 49ers team that might prioritize stopping the pass with a backup quarterback under center, will naturally lead to more carries for the running back duo.

Bensons efficiency at 4.2 YPC means he can make the most of his opportunities, making him a valuable asset even if the total number of carries is spread between him and Conner.

Ashton Jeantys Over 15.5 rush attempts prop is a standout selection, bolstered by explicit coaching directives that signal a significant workload increase. Head coach Pete Carroll has publicly committed to approximately 20 carries for Jeanty, providing a substantial 3.5-carry buffer over the current line. This directive alone creates a robust 22.6% edge and a 70% win probability, making this a highly attractive bet. Jeanty already commands a dominant 93.8% share of the Las Vegas Raiders running back carries, underscoring his primary role in the backfield. Despite averaging 15 carries and a modest 2.7 yards per carry through the first two games, the upward trend in his usage is undeniable, driven by coaching intentions. The matchup against the Washington Commanders presents a favorable game script for establishing the run.

With Washington potentially starting a backup quarterback, the Raiders are likely to lean on their ground game to control tempo and dictate the flow of the game. The Raiders offensive tendencies suggest a run play percentage between 35-40%, which directly supports an increased volume of carries for Jeanty. This game is projected to be competitive, with both teams at 1-1 and Washingtons quarterback situation creating an environment with a low blowout probability (under 20%). This competitive script ensures Jeanty will likely maintain a high workload throughout the game, minimizing the risk of significant snap reductions. Washingtons run defense is not considered an elite unit, and there are no immediate red flags or strong indicators of significant resistance against a featured back. This creates an exploitable situation where the Raiders primary ball carrier should find success on the ground.

Jeantys overwhelming carry share of 93.8% is expected to increase further, potentially nearing 100%, based on the coaching staffs clear intentions. He is projected to see a high snap count, estimated at 70-75% of offensive snaps, solidifying his role as the teams workhorse. While specific pace data for the Raiders is not provided, their strategic adjustment to increase their run focus to establish the ground game creates an exceptionally positive environment for Jeantys rush attempt volume. The primary statistical edge for this bet is the coachs explicit target of approximately 20 carries for Jeanty. This is reinforced by his overwhelming share of the Raiders backfield carries. The analytical edge for the Over 15.5 attempts remains strong, driven by clear coaching intentions for an increased workload.

While running back carries are inherently subject to game script variance, the confidence score for this bet stands at a high 8/10, strongly reinforced by explicit coaching comments. The value assessment is excellent, with a calculated edge of 3.5 carries over the line and a projected win probability of 70%, resulting in a high value rating of 9/10.