Todays NFL Prop Betting Edge - September 21st, 2025

Ashton Jeanty is positioned for a significant touchdown opportunity this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. The critical factor here is the Commanders quarterback situation; with Jayden Daniels sidelined, backup Marcus Mariota steps in. Mariotas history and conservative approach suggest a strong emphasis on the run game, particularly in the red zone, to mitigate risk. This directly funnels opportunities towards Jeanty, who is being utilized as a primary goal-line specialist.

The Commanders offense has shown a propensity to run, ranking 8th in rushing offense. While the Raiders boast a statistically strong run defense (4th), their early-season schedule has not featured robust rushing attacks. Furthermore, the Raiders defensive profile shows a concerning 27th-ranked pass defense, which could lead Washington to lean even more heavily on the run to control the game and avoid turnovers. Jeantys specialization in inside zone and power schemes makes him well-suited for short-yardage and goal-line situations, areas where Washington is converting 40% of their red zone trips into scores.

The game script also heavily favors Jeanty. The Raiders 31st-ranked scoring offense implies that Washington will likely have multiple possessions, and potentially multiple red zone trips, throughout the game. With a narrow spread suggesting a competitive contest, theres little risk of a blowout that would drastically alter snap counts. Mariotas presence is the key catalyst, as his preference for safer plays in scoring territory will undoubtedly prioritize carries for Jeanty over risky passes, effectively increasing his touchdown ceiling.

Ashton Jeanty is poised for a substantial workload in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders, making the Over 15.5 rush attempts a compelling bet. The most significant driver for this projection is explicit coaching directives. Reports indicate that coach Pete Carroll has committed to giving Jeanty approximately 20 carries, a clear signal of the teams intention to establish the run. This directive provides a substantial buffer of nearly four carries above the betting line, indicating a powerful statistical edge.

Jeantys usage share within the Raiders backfield is already dominant, commanding 93.8% of the teams running back carries. This overwhelming volume ensures that any increase in the teams overall rushing attempts will disproportionately benefit Jeanty. Even though his current average of 2.7 yards per carry through two games is not elite, the coaching staffs commitment to the run game, coupled with the expectation of a competitive matchup against a Commanders team starting a backup quarterback, creates a favorable game script for increased volume. The Raiders are expected to lean heavily on their ground game to control tempo and protect their backup quarterback.

This strategic approach aligns perfectly with Jeantys projected workload. With a projected 19 carries, this prop offers a significant margin of safety. The lack of elite metrics from Washingtons run defense suggests that Jeanty should find consistent opportunities to carry the ball, even if efficiency is not spectacular. The coaching staffs clear intention to feature Jeanty prominently makes this a high-confidence play.

Ashton Jeanty is poised for a substantial workload in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders, making the Over 15.5 rush attempts a compelling bet. The most significant driver for this projection is explicit coaching directives. Reports indicate that coach Pete Carroll has committed to giving Jeanty approximately 20 carries, a clear signal of the teams intention to establish the run. This directive provides a substantial buffer of nearly four carries above the betting line, indicating a powerful statistical edge.

Jeantys usage share within the Raiders backfield is already dominant, commanding 93.8% of the teams running back carries. This overwhelming volume ensures that any increase in the teams overall rushing attempts will disproportionately benefit Jeanty. Even though his current average of 2.7 yards per carry through two games is not elite, the coaching staffs commitment to the run game, coupled with the expectation of a competitive matchup against a Commanders team starting a backup quarterback, creates a favorable game script for increased volume. The Raiders are expected to lean heavily on their ground game to control tempo and protect their backup quarterback.

This strategic approach aligns perfectly with Jeantys projected workload. With a projected 19 carries, this prop offers a significant margin of safety. The lack of elite metrics from Washingtons run defense suggests that Jeanty should find consistent opportunities to carry the ball, even if efficiency is not spectacular. The coaching staffs clear intention to feature Jeanty prominently makes this a high-confidence play.