Smart NFL Prop Bets to Target on September 22nd, 2025

Michael Pittman Jr. presents a compelling opportunity for an Anytime Touchdown at +190 odds, offering significant value beyond his implied probability. His consistent 30% target share with the Colts underscores his importance in the passing game. This value is amplified by an anticipated expanded red-zone role, directly linked to Alec Pierces absence due to injury.

This creates a vacuum of targets that Pittman is ideally positioned to absorb, particularly in crucial scoring situations. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams secondary is particularly enticing. The Rams have demonstrated a notable vulnerability in coverage, allowing an 85% catch rate this season. Furthermore, the potential absence of CB Kenny Moore II due to a calf injury would further expose a unit that already struggles against top receivers.

The controlled environment of SoFi Stadium, a dome, is another significant factor that favors passing efficiency. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has historically performed well under such conditions, boasting a 71% completion rate. This enhanced passing environment will likely lead to increased volume for Pittman. Our projection indicates a 40% likelihood of Pittman finding the end zone, a notable increase from the 34.5% implied by the +190 odds, presenting a solid +5.5% edge for bettors.

The Colts consistent offensive output, evidenced by their 3-0 start and an average of 2.0 red-zone trips per game, ensures ample scoring opportunities will be available, with Pittman being the primary beneficiary.

DeVon Achane is positioned for a strong performance with a high probability of scoring an Anytime Touchdown at -165 odds. His complete dominance in the Dolphins backfield, commanding 100% of running back carries, is a foundational element of this projection. This volume is not just high; its increasing week-over-week, signaling growing trust and involvement from the coaching staff.

The matchup against the New York Jets defense is particularly advantageous. The Jets have struggled mightily against the run, allowing a porous 4.3 yards per carry and having surrendered three rushing touchdowns through their first three games. This suggests a defense that is consistently susceptible to opposing ground attacks.

The projected -7.5 point spread for the Dolphins strongly indicates a positive game script where Miami will likely be protecting a lead, necessitating a run-heavy approach, especially in the second half. This scenario perfectly suits Achanes role. Furthermore, the anticipated 86°F game-time temperature is a subtle but important factor, favoring a consistent running game over the endurance demands of a pass-heavy attack.

Our projection places Achanes touchdown probability at 65%, a noticeable increase from the 62% implied by the -165 odds, providing a valuable +3% edge. The Dolphins offensive pace and propensity to run in positive game scripts further bolster the case for Achane to find the end zone.

Derrick Henry is poised to surpass his rushing yardage prop of 86.5 against the Detroit Lions. This projection is underpinned by a confluence of factors, including his significant role in the Ravens offense, a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Lions run defense, and a game script that is expected to heavily favor the run. Henry has firmly established himself as the featured back in Baltimore, commanding a robust 70% of the teams running back carries.

This consistent volume, projected at 20-22 attempts per game, provides a strong foundation for exceeding this yardage total. The matchup against the Lions defense is particularly attractive. Through the early part of the season, Detroit has allowed opposing running backs to gain an average of 4.8 yards per carry, indicating a clear susceptibility to the run.

This is further exacerbated by the Lions struggles against power run schemes, which align perfectly with Henrys strengths. The Ravens offensive line, ranking 9th in run block win rate, provides the necessary push to open lanes for Henry. The games highest total of the week (53.5 points) suggests a high-scoring affair, which typically translates to more offensive plays and opportunities for key players like Henry to accumulate yardage.

Our projection of 98.5 rushing yards for Henry creates a substantial 13.8% edge over the 86.5-yard line, making the Over a compelling bet.