Sharp NFL Prop Betting Moves for September 24th, 2025

Lamar Jacksons exceptional ball security is the cornerstone of this prop bet. Historically, Jackson averages less than one interception per game, a trend that has held firm this season with just one interception in his first three outings, translating to a mere 0.33 INTs per game. This consistent discipline in protecting the football is paramount against any opponent, but particularly against a Chiefs defense that, while ranked 21st in defensive EPA, still possesses playmakers capable of capitalizing on mistakes. The Ravens offensive philosophy further bolsters this selection.

Their commitment to a balanced, run-heavy attack, projecting around 35 rushing attempts and approximately 28 passing attempts, inherently limits Jacksons exposure to high-risk throws. This conservative approach, designed to control the clock and mitigate defensive pressure, ensures Jackson is not forced into situations where interceptions are likely. The game script also favors a low interception outcome. With the Chiefs only narrow favorites by 2.5 points, a competitive, close contest is anticipated.

This scenario prevents a desperate comeback situation that might compel Jackson to take unnecessary risks. Instead, the Ravens are likely to stick to their methodical, possession-oriented offense. Favorable weather conditions, with clear skies projected, further eliminate external factors that could contribute to errant passes. Jacksons consistent passer rating above league average, coupled with his healthy status and the coaching staffs emphasis on calculated offensive execution, solidifies the rationale for backing the Under on interceptions.

Patrick Mahomes season average of just 25 passing attempts per game presents a significant opportunity for value on the Under 35.5 line. This substantial difference between his current usage and the prop line suggests a considerable mispricing by the market, offering a robust mathematical edge. While the Chiefs have shown a recent trend towards more aggressive, deep-ball passing, this has not yet translated into a dramatic increase in overall attempts. Mahomes rolling average over the first three games remains firmly anchored at 25 attempts, indicating a consistent pattern rather than a rapidly escalating volume.

The projected game script further supports this Under. The Chiefs are favored by a narrow 2.5 points, indicating a closely contested matchup where a balanced offensive approach is more likely than a pass-heavy, catch-up scenario. The projected total of 48.5 points also suggests a moderately scoring game, which typically aligns with a controlled pace and a distribution of offensive plays that doesnt necessitate an overwhelming number of pass attempts. The low probability of a blowout (10%) means Mahomes is expected to play the entire game, but within a framework that favors efficiency over sheer volume.

Furthermore, the absence of significant injuries among key offensive personnel means that Mahomes target share and overall involvement are not artificially inflated or deflated. He commands 100% of offensive snaps when healthy, but the context of the game dictates the *number* of attempts. The clear and favorable weather conditions eliminate any external factors that might depress passing efficiency or force a change in offensive strategy. This prop is fundamentally about Mahomes current usage patterns and the anticipated game flow, both of which strongly point towards him staying under the 35.5 attempt threshold.

Josh Allens dual-threat capability presents a compelling case for the Anytime Touchdown prop, especially against a struggling Saints defense. Allens consistent ability to impact the game both through the air and on the ground provides multiple avenues for scoring. His historical performance underscores this, with an average of 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game over the last three seasons and a remarkable 12.5 rushing touchdowns in red zone situations over the past two seasons. This demonstrates a reliable and consistent scoring output, particularly in critical scoring areas. The matchup against the Saints is particularly favorable.

The Saints defense has shown significant vulnerabilities this season, evidenced by their 0-3 record and their struggles against mobile quarterbacks. They are allowing an average of 5.2 rushing yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, highlighting a distinct weakness in containing dual-threat signal-callers. Allens history of success against defenses with similar shortcomings further bolsters this selection. The Bills status as heavy favorites (-16.5 points) suggests a dominant performance and ample offensive opportunities. Even in a potential blowout scenario, Allen is projected to play a significant portion of the game (at least 75%), and his involvement in red zone plays typically continues regardless of the score.

Allens usage rate as the Bills quarterback is exceptionally high, accounting for approximately 25% of the teams red zone touchdowns. This number could potentially increase if the Bills benefit from short fields. His projected snap count of around 90% of offensive snaps ensures consistent involvement throughout the game, including all critical red zone opportunities. While the Bills generally play at a moderate pace, any increase in tempo could further enhance Allens chances of scoring. The combination of his personal scoring prowess and the defensive weaknesses of the Saints creates a high-probability scenario for an anytime touchdown.