Expert NFL & NHL Prop Bet Analysis for November 6th, 2025

Jared Goffs consistent performance and the advantageous matchup against the Washington Commanders present a compelling case for the Over on his pass completions. Goff has established a high floor for completions this season, averaging 24.6 per game and exceeding the 21.5 line in a remarkable 7 out of 8 contests. His recent form further bolsters this projection, with an average of 25.3 completions over his last three outings, indicating a sustained volume trend. The Commanders defense, particularly their secondary, is significantly hampered by injuries.

This creates exploitable mismatches that Goff and the Lions offense are well-positioned to exploit. The offensive line for Detroit has provided adequate protection, contributing to Goffs efficient 68.7% completion rate, which is crucial for hitting the over on completions. The Lions offensive scheme is inherently pass-heavy, with a season-long pass rate of 48.5%, and Goff averages a healthy 30.0 attempts per game. This volume, combined with the projected positive game script where Detroit is favored by 8.5 points, suggests that Goff will continue to be a focal point of their offense.

Even with a comfortable lead, Goffs role in managing the clock through short, high-percentage completions will keep his completion numbers elevated. Furthermore, Goffs elite QB Rating of 116.5 underscores his efficiency and ability to consistently find receivers. The line of 21.5 completions appears to be set below his season average and recent performance, presenting a clear market undervaluation. This combination of consistent production, favorable matchup, and offensive scheme makes the Over a strong proposition.

Sam Darnolds Over 28.5 Pass Attempts presents a strong value proposition, driven by the Seattle Seahawks offensive tendencies and the Arizona Cardinals defensive vulnerabilities. While Darnolds season average for pass attempts is 27.4, recent trends and game script projections strongly suggest an increase in volume. He has already surpassed this 28.5 line in three games this season, demonstrating his capability to reach higher attempt numbers. The Seahawks struggling rushing attack necessitates a heavier reliance on the passing game.

Projections indicate a significant disparity in play calling, with an anticipated 34.1 pass attempts versus only 25.5 rush attempts. This pass-heavy approach is crucial for Darnold to achieve the necessary volume to hit the Over. The Cardinals pass defense is one of the leagues weakest, allowing an average of 202.5 passing yards per game, ranking them seventh worst in the NFL. This creates a highly favorable matchup for Darnold, who possesses an elite QB Rating of 113.1, indicating his efficiency when given opportunities.

His ability to capitalize on this weak defense through high volume is a key factor. Darnolds base snap count as the starting quarterback is consistently high at 65.9 snaps per game, ensuring he is on the field for the majority of offensive plays. Combined with the projected pass-heavy game script and the favorable matchup, his adjusted snap count and opportunity share are expected to increase, directly supporting higher pass attempt numbers. The risk assessment indicates a low probability of a significant blowout that would lead to benching or extreme run-heavy clock killing.

The confidence score of 8 out of 10 reflects the strength of the statistical edge, with a calculated 9.5% edge over the implied odds for this bet.

The Anaheim Ducks covering the +1.5 spread against the Dallas Stars offers compelling value, primarily due to the Ducks offensive prowess and recent strong form, contrasted with potential instability in the Stars goaltending. Anaheim is currently riding a four-game winning streak, showcasing their ability to generate offense and maintain competitive play. Their league-leading offense, averaging an impressive 3.87 Goals Per Game, provides a solid foundation for them to stay within a goal, even against a stronger opponent. The critical factor tilting the scales is the uncertainty surrounding the Dallas Stars goaltending situation.

With Jake Oettinger day-to-day, the potential for Casey DeSmith to start is a significant concern. DeSmiths save percentage (.910 SV%) is considerably lower than Oettingers, and any dip in goaltending performance directly increases the likelihood of the opposing team scoring enough to cover the spread. The analytical model projects a high-scoring affair, with a total goal line of 11.03. This high total suggests that both offenses are expected to perform well, increasing the probability that the Ducks, with their top-tier scoring ability, can contribute enough goals to stay within the 1.5-goal margin.

While Dallas boasts an elite power play, Anaheims offensive firepower is expected to offset defensive weaknesses. The Ducks high shot volume of 31.4 shots per game will consistently test the Stars defense, regardless of who is in net. Despite Dallas holding a home-ice advantage, Anaheim has demonstrated resilience on the road with a solid 4-2-1 record away from home. The value rating of 7/10 for this spread bet underscores the confidence in the Ducks ability to perform within the given margin.