Star Player NFL & NHL Props: November 13th, 2025

The viability of Mac Jones passing yards Over is intrinsically linked to the defensive capabilities of the New York Jets and the health of their key defensive personnel. Our primary analytical focus is on this specific matchup, as it dictates the potential ceiling for Jones aerial production. The Jets pass defense statistics are paramount in establishing a reliable projection for the Patriots quarterback.

Any significant absences within the Jets secondary or among their pass rushers would dramatically alter the defensive effectiveness and, consequently, create more favorable passing opportunities for Jones. Therefore, a thorough review of the injury reports for the Jets defense leading up to Week 11 is the most critical variable influencing the final assessment of this prop bet. While the Patriots offense has shown flashes, their consistency is often tied to the pressure Jones faces and the coverage schemes deployed against him.

The Jets have historically fielded a stout defense, particularly against the pass, which presents a potential challenge. However, injuries can erode even the most formidable units. If the Jets are shorthanded in the defensive backfield, the Patriots could exploit these weaknesses through their passing game.

This scenario would naturally drive up Jones passing yardage, making the Over a more attractive proposition. Without confirmed defensive metrics and injury status for the Jets, this bet carries an inherent level of uncertainty, but the potential leverage is present if the defensive weaknesses are exposed.

Breece Halls Over 3.5 Receptions prop presents an elite opportunity, underscored by a substantial 9.9% edge derived from a severe mismatch against the New England Patriots defense. The Patriots are demonstrably the worst in the league against receiving running backs, conceding an alarming 6.1 receptions per game to the position. This defensive deficiency is a cornerstone of our analysis, suggesting a high floor for Halls target volume, especially in a projected pass-negative game script.

The Patriots linebacker corps, in particular, grades poorly in coverage, ranking among the bottom five units in the NFL with a PFF coverage grade of 58.2. This weakness is precisely where Hall excels, as a significant portion of his targets occur within five yards of the line of scrimmage, an area where the Patriots allow a high completion rate. Furthermore, the anticipated game script, with the Patriots projected as significant favorites, necessitates the Jets operating in catch-up mode.

This scenario typically forces teams to abandon the run and rely heavily on the short passing game, leading to increased check-down opportunities for the running back. Halls involvement in the passing game is projected to increase, potentially reaching an 18-20% target share, especially with potential absences in the Jets receiving corps. His consistent catch rate of 76.2% and an average of 4.2 targets per game over his last four contests further solidify his reliability.

Even with the line moving from 3.0 to 3.5, sharp money has reportedly been buying the Over, indicating market confidence despite the inflated number. Halls historical performance against the Patriots, where he averaged 4.5 receptions in two career games, also supports this Over.

Tim Stützles Over 2.5 Shots on Goal prop presents exceptional value, driven by his consistent shot generation, a favorable matchup against a shot-vulnerable Boston Bruins defense, and a significant home-ice advantage. Stützle has been exceeding this 2.5 shot line in 4 of his last 5 games, demonstrating a clear trend of high-volume shooting that far surpasses the props threshold. His season average of 2.76 shots per game already provides a statistical edge, but the recent surge to 3.4 shots per game over his last five outings is particularly compelling.

This offensive aggression is further supported by his elite usage, averaging 19.8 minutes of ice time and consistent power-play deployment, ensuring maximum opportunities to put pucks on net. The matchup against the Boston Bruins is also a key factor. The Bruins are allowing an average of 31.2 shots per game, ranking them among the bottom ten teams in the NHL for shot suppression.

This defensive vulnerability is conducive to high-event games and increased shot volume for opposing forwards. Stützles shot generation rate of 8.4 shots per 60 minutes confirms his willingness to shoot, and his deployment on the top power-play unit provides crucial high-leverage opportunities. Perhaps most importantly, Stützle has been a perfect Over 2.5 shots at home this season, never going under the line in his own arena.

This consistent home performance, combined with the overall offensive environment at the Canadian Tire Centre, solidifies this prop as a high-confidence selection.